冷战后印度中亚政策研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 08:06

【摘要】：大国崛起首先是地区层面的崛起，然后是向邻近地区扩散影响，最后将其影响力扩散至全球。作为印度“延伸的邻国”，中亚在印度向亚洲主导国家和世界大国的转变过程中起着重要作用。印度的中亚政策主要有三个目标：维护印度在中亚地区的政治利益、安全和地缘政治利益、经济和能源利益。实际上，，中亚政策是印度大国战略的重要组成部分，它反映了印度外交的主要变化轨迹：随着印度经济、军事力量的增强，印度对中亚事务的介入经历了一个从不予重点关注到尝试全面介入中亚事务的过程；印度希望通过加强与中亚国家之间的合作，致力于使印度不仅是南亚次大陆的主导者，而且是世界事务的有力塑造者。从1991年中亚国家先后独立到现在，印度的中亚政策经历了三个发展阶段。第一阶段从1991年至1998年，这一阶段印度中亚政策的主要任务是通过加强与新独立的中亚国家之间的接触，从而为印度与中亚关系的发展打下基础。第二阶段从1998至2001年，随着国际形势与印度自身发展的需要，中亚地区成为印度加快自身经济发展和打击极端主义与恐怖主义的重要合作伙伴。2001至今是印度中亚政策的第三个阶段，这一时期印度加大了对中亚地区的关注与投入，致力于加强与中亚国家在政治、经济、安全与文化诸领域的合作，印度在中亚的影响也随之增强。然而印度的中亚政策的发展，还面临着如下因素的制约：首先是印度自身因素带来的影响；其次是中俄美在中亚的活动所带来的影响；再次是阿富汗、巴基斯坦局势发展的影响。虽然印度与中亚国家关系的发展仍受到制约，但印度介入中亚事务越来越明确的态势，值得引起关注。随着更多的外交资源投入到中亚地区，印度在该地区的影响力会随之增大。由于缺乏议程控制能力及塑造规范的权力，即使印度在中亚事务中的影响力会上升，这种影响力的扩展也是有限的，印度目前和将来相当长一段时期内也不会是中亚事务和国际事务的主要参与者。虽然印度目前没有明确的中亚战略，但由于中印双方在地区安全、能源、市场方面有着相似的利益诉求，因此，印度的中亚政策还是会对中国造成一定影响，但并不会对中国造成多大威胁。实际上，中印在中亚没有多大冲突。印度在中亚的存在只能对我国造成有限的影响。只要中印双方遵守市场规则，中国在中亚就会保持对印度的优势。
[Abstract]:The rise of great powers is first at the regional level, then into neighbouring regions, and finally across the globe. As an extended neighbor of India, Central Asia plays an important role in India's transformation into a leading Asian country and a major power in the world. India's Central Asia policy has three main objectives: safeguarding India's political interests in Central Asia, security and geopolitical interests, and economic and energy interests. In fact, the Central Asian policy is an important part of India's great power strategy, which reflects the main trajectory of Indian diplomacy: as India's economy and military power grow, India's involvement in Central Asian affairs has gone through a process from a lack of focus to an attempt to fully engage in Central Asian affairs; India hopes to work towards making India not only the dominant player in the South Asian subcontinent by strengthening cooperation with the Central Asian States, And a powerful shaper of world affairs. Since the independence of Central Asian countries in 1991, India's Central Asian policy has gone through three stages of development. The first stage is from 1991 to 1998. The main task of India's Central Asian policy is to lay a foundation for the development of India's relations with Central Asia by strengthening contacts with the newly independent Central Asian countries. The second stage from 1998 to 2001, with the international situation and the needs of India's own development, The Central Asian region has become an important partner of India in accelerating its economic development and countering extremism and terrorism. So far, it is the third stage of India's Central Asian policy. During this period, India increased its attention and input to the Central Asian region. India's influence in Central Asia has increased with its commitment to strengthen cooperation with Central Asian countries in political, economic, security and cultural fields. However, the development of India's policy in Central Asia also faces the following constraints: first, the impact of India's own factors; secondly, the impact of the activities of China, Russia and the United States in Central Asia; and, again, Afghanistan. The impact of developments in Pakistan. Although the development of relations between India and Central Asian countries is still restricted, India's involvement in Central Asian affairs is becoming more and more clear, which deserves attention. As more diplomatic resources go to Central Asia, India's influence in the region will increase. Given the lack of agenda control and the power to shape norms, the expansion of Indian influence in Central Asia is limited, even if its influence rises. India is and will not be a major participant in Central Asian and international affairs for a long time. Although India does not have a clear strategy for Central Asia at present, because China and India have similar interests in regional security, energy, and markets, India's Central Asian policy will still have a certain impact on China. But it does not pose much of a threat to China. In fact, there is little conflict between China and India in Central Asia. India's presence in Central Asia can only have a limited impact on our country. As long as China and India abide by market rules, China will maintain its advantage over India in Central Asia.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D835.1

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