“一带一路”、新型全球化与大国关系

发布时间：2018-08-08 20:32

【摘要】："一带一路"沿线的绝大多数国家都属于中低收入国家,其面临的主要挑战是如何实现发展。东亚和中国依靠出口导向战略实现了工业化,但在今后一个时期,国际贸易增速将显著低于GDP增速,加上发达国家逆全球化思潮涌动,世界发展需要新思路。中国和"一带一路"沿线国家可以推动以基础设施建设、制造业为核心的工业化和发展中国家合作为主要内容的新型全球化。中国具备全球首屈一指的制造业贸易能力,东部地区形成了一个相当于两个二战后美国经济规模大小的富裕经济地带,在战略上中国倡导共商、共享与共建原则,因此,"一带一路"具有深厚的带动力。预计2030年左右,"一带一路"沿线中低收入国家有24亿人将转变为中高收入人口,而届时中国有14亿人口将成为高收入人口。尽管富裕起来的中国在战略上的确构成对美国的重大挑战,但"一带一路"也为中美两国创造了合作共赢的机遇。因此,中国应统筹"一带一路"与"新型大国关系",从战略上更好地维护中国的国家利益。
[Abstract]:Most of the countries along the Belt and Road are low- and middle-income countries, and the main challenge is how to achieve development. East Asia and China have realized industrialization by export-oriented strategy, but in the future, the growth rate of international trade will be significantly lower than that of GDP. China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" can promote a new type of globalization with infrastructure construction, manufacturing industry as the core and developing countries cooperation as the main content. China has the world's leading manufacturing trade capacity, and the eastern region has formed a wealthy economic zone of the size of two post-World War II American economies. Strategically, China advocates the principles of co-negotiation, sharing and co-construction. Therefore, the "Belt and Road" has a deep driving force. Around 2030, 2.4 billion people in low- and middle-income countries along the Belt and Road are expected to turn into middle-to-high income, while 1.4 billion people in China will become high-income. While a wealthy China does pose a major strategic challenge to the United States, the Belt and Road also creates opportunities for win-win cooperation between China and the United States. Therefore, China should coordinate "Belt and Road" and "new power relations" to better safeguard China's national interests strategically.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院大国关系研究室;
【分类号】：D822.371.2;F125

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