权力转移、国家意志与国际秩序变迁——对七月危机的考察

发布时间：2018-08-24 17:54

【摘要】：在国际关系史上,大国之间的权力转移是自然现象。在权力转移漫长的进程中,无论是主导国维护现有国际秩序的国家意志,还是崛起国建构国际新秩序的国家意志都存在强弱变化,并对国际秩序的变迁产生影响。在权力转移的持平阶段,主导国、崛起国面临的结构压力大致相同,一旦主导国具有维护现有国际秩序的强烈国家意志,崛起国具有强烈的构建国际新秩序的国家意志,那么两国国家意志制衡决定了国际秩序变迁的战争机制。七月危机前,俄、法与德、奥之间的权力对比大致持平。在奥匈帝国与塞尔维亚危机中,俄国试图削弱奥匈帝国、主导巴尔干地区,其国家意志不断增强。然而,维护奥匈帝国的完整性,就是维护欧洲大陆的均势秩序,就是维护德国的安全战略地位,因此德国具有维护奥匈帝国完整的强烈国家意志。在俄、德国家意志制衡下,围绕国际秩序主导权的竞争最终通过战争机制进行。
[Abstract]:In the history of international relations, the transfer of power between the great powers is a natural phenomenon. In the long process of power transfer, whether it is the national will of leading countries to maintain the existing international order or the national will of the rising countries to construct the new international order, there are changes in strength and weakness, which have an impact on the changes of international order. In the flat stage of power transfer, the structural pressure on the leading country and the rising country is roughly the same. Once the leading country has the strong national will to maintain the existing international order, the rising country has the strong national will to construct the new international order. So the balance of the will of the two countries determines the war mechanism of the change of the international order. Before the July crisis, the power balance between Russia, France and Germany was roughly equal. In the Austro-Hungarian and Serbian crises, Russia tried to weaken the Austro-Hungarian Empire and dominate the Balkans. However, to maintain the integrity of the Austro-Hungarian Empire is to maintain the balance of power in the European continent and to maintain the strategic position of Germany's security. Therefore, Germany has a strong national will to safeguard the integrity of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Under the balance of the will of Russia and Germany, the competition around the dominant power of the international order is finally carried out through the war mechanism.
【作者单位】：天津工业大学马克思主义学院;南开大学周恩来政府管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“中国构建新型大国关系的实践探索”(项目编号:13&ZD049) 天津市艺术科学规划项目“美国对外文化政策与大国崛起”(项目编号:C14059)的阶段成果
【分类号】：D81

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