伊拉克什叶派的崛起与战后两伊关系的发展

发布时间：2018-09-04 14:44

【摘要】：自2003年伊拉克萨达姆政权被美国推翻之后,学术界出现了有关伊朗是否是伊拉克战争实际最大受益者的争论。有些学者认为伊朗正试图通过其与伊拉克什叶派的联系将他们变为伊朗在伊拉克的利益代理人,并进一步通过他们控制整个伊拉克政局。与这种看法相反,本文认为到目前为止,伊拉克的什叶派并没有扮演着伊朗代理人的角色,而未来也不可能会。本文首先回顾了伊拉克什叶派伊斯兰运动的发展历程,重点分析了伊拉克国内四个重要的什叶派团体,即以大阿亚图拉西斯塔尼为代表的传统教士阶级,伊斯兰召唤党,伊拉克伊斯兰最高委员会以及萨德尔运动。文章指出,这些伊拉克什叶派团体在身份认同、政治目标以及利益诉求等方面与伊朗有诸多分歧和差别,因而不具有成为伊朗利益代理人的主观愿望。之后,本文分析了伊拉克什叶派所面临的来自国内逊尼派、美国以及其它逊尼派主导的阿拉伯国家的压力。由于这些势力都担心伊朗扩大其在伊拉克的影响力,因而他们正通过诸多方式迫使伊拉克什叶派团体减少其与伊朗的联系。此外,本文还从伊朗的视角展开分析,认为伊战后伊朗的地缘政治形势实际上并非好转而是恶化了。因此伊朗采取的是一种防御性的地区战略。在两伊关系方面,伊朗的态度是非常务实的,它并没有不切实际的幻想,即试图将伊拉克什叶派变为自己的代理人。伊朗在伊拉克的目标是确保伊拉克有一个什叶派领导的、对伊朗友好的政府,从而能够成为伊朗和美国对抗中的缓冲地带。在结论部分,本文将进一步指出,战后两伊关系的本质特征是巨大的不对称性,其来源于伊战后两国实力的严重不平衡及两国安全偏好的不一致。但是,随着这一不对称性在未来逐渐消减,伊朗对伊拉克的影响力将呈下降趋势。
[Abstract]:Since Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown by the United States in 2003, there has been a debate in academia about whether Iran is actually the biggest beneficiary of the Iraq war. Some scholars believe that Iran is trying to turn them into Iranian interest agents in Iraq through its ties with Iraqi Shia and to further control the entire Iraqi political situation through them. Contrary to this view, this paper argues that so far, Iraq's Shia have not acted as Iranian agents, and that the future is unlikely. This paper first reviews the development of the Shia Islamic Movement in Iraq, focusing on the analysis of four important Shiite groups in Iraq, namely, the traditional clerical class represented by Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the Islamic call Party. The Supreme Council of the Islamic Republic of Iraq and the Sadr movement. The article points out that these Iraqi Shia groups have many differences and differences with Iran in terms of identity, political objectives and interests, so they do not have the subjective desire to be Iranian interest agents. Then, this paper analyzes the pressure faced by Iraqi Shia from Sunni, American and other Sunni-dominated Arab countries. Because these forces are worried that Iran will expand its influence in Iraq, they are forcing Iraqi Shia groups to reduce their ties with Iran in many ways. In addition, this paper analyzes from the perspective of Iran and concludes that the geopolitical situation in Iran after the war has actually deteriorated rather than improved. So Iran is adopting a defensive regional strategy. Iran is very pragmatic in its relations with Iraq, and it has no unrealistic illusions of trying to turn Iraq's Shiites into its proxy. Iran's goal in Iraq is to ensure that Iraq has a Shia-led, Iranian-friendly government that could serve as a buffer against the United States. In the conclusion part, this paper will further point out that the essential characteristic of the post-war relations between Iraq and Iran is the huge asymmetry, which is derived from the serious imbalance of the two countries' strength and the inconsistency of their security preferences. But as this asymmetry diminishes in the future, Iran's influence over Iraq will decline.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D837.7;D837.3

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