印度发展核武器与美国的情报评估（1950-1974）

发布时间：2018-11-21 12:02

【摘要】：印度在1974年5月18日进行了一次具有历史意义和深远影响的地下核爆炸试验。关于这次试验，美国情报机构从印度开始发展核能项目之日起便给予了关注，并多次加以预测。不过，在印度的核爆炸声响起之前，美国情报机构未能对此发出警报，情报调查宣告失败，并由此而引发关于印度发展核武器与美国情报评估的一系列问题。从相关的档案文献可以看出，美国对印度核能发展的正式关注开始于1950年，并多次就印度是否会发展核武器的问题进行了讨论，，这些信息为本文的课题论证提供了充分的历史资料。事实上，美国针对印度发展核武器的情报活动从来就没有停止过，只是因为种种现实和历史的原因而导致最后的情报失误。本文主要从相关的档案资料入手，在借助其他资料的论述的基础上，系统探讨了1950-1974年间印度核能发展的走向，以及在这一走向中所蕴含的基本动机、核武器潜能、核政策与武器计划、首次核爆炸等相关问题。此外，在分析以上问题的同时，就美国对印度发展核武器的情报失误予以分析和总结。因此，本文重点内容分为三大部分：一，印度发展核武器伊始与美国的关注；二，印度发展核武器的努力；三，美国情报评估的失误。总的来说，印度1974年5月18日的核爆炸具有时代特色，更具有历史意义，因而，结合相关情报来对这一问题进行探讨便显得十分重要。任何事物的发展都必然有其深刻的历史根源,无论是从国家利益的角度出发，还是出于对世界整体局势的考虑，我们都应该慎重对待历史上曾经发生的事情所带给我们的思考。
[Abstract]:India conducted a historic and far-reaching underground nuclear explosion test on May 18, 1974. American intelligence agencies have been paying attention to the test since India began its nuclear program, and have predicted it many times. But before India's nuclear explosion, U.S. intelligence agencies failed to alert, failed intelligence investigations and raised questions about India's development of nuclear weapons and U.S. intelligence assessments. As can be seen from the relevant archival documents, the official concern of the United States for the development of nuclear energy in India began in 1950, and the issue of whether India will develop nuclear weapons has been discussed many times. These information provide sufficient historical data for the subject of this paper. In fact, American intelligence on India's development of nuclear weapons has never stopped, only because of a variety of practical and historical reasons leading to the final error of intelligence. Based on the discussion of other documents, this paper systematically discusses the development trend of nuclear energy in India from 1950 to 1974, and the basic motive, nuclear potential, contained in this trend. Nuclear policy and weapons program, first nuclear explosion and other related issues. In addition, while analyzing the above problems, the paper analyzes and summarizes the intelligence errors of the United States on India's development of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the main content of this paper is divided into three parts: first, the beginning of India's development of nuclear weapons and the concern of the United States; second, India's efforts to develop nuclear weapons; third, the failure of American intelligence evaluation. In general, the nuclear explosion in India on May 18, 1974 has its own characteristics and historical significance, so it is very important to discuss this issue in conjunction with the relevant information. The development of everything must have its profound historical roots, whether from the point of view of national interests or out of consideration of the overall situation of the world, we should carefully deal with the historical events that have brought us thinking.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D815.2

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