从策略性介入到战略性部署——印度介入南海问题的新动向

发布时间：2019-01-22 14:07

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,印度不断调整介入南海问题的战略与策略,正逐渐从早期策略性介入南海问题的大周边外交向更侧重战略性部署的印太战略转变。大周边外交强化了印度与南海周边国家的政治经济合作,特别是直接介入南海地区油气合作。但大周边外交可能导致重大的消极战略后果,特别是其蕴含的制衡中国倾向。因此,在南海争端日益凸显的背景下,印度逐渐转向更具战略性和更为宏观的印太概念,将南海问题纳入更大的印太战略中,进而不仅可实现在南海地区的战略性部署,也可通过某种政策模糊性实现左右逢源。尽管值得高度警惕,但考虑到南海问题在印度整体战略中的优先度不高,因此其未来介入南海问题的手法可能仍以政策模糊性和争取左右逢源为主要特征,中国需要抓住中印关系的主要矛盾,将印度介入南海问题的程度、范围和后果控制在可接受的范围。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, India has constantly adjusted its strategy and strategy to intervene in the South China Sea issue, and is gradually changing from its early strategic involvement in the South China Sea to its strategic deployment. The diplomacy strengthens the political and economic cooperation between India and the neighboring countries in the South China Sea, especially the direct involvement in the oil and gas cooperation in the South China Sea. But peripheral diplomacy can lead to significant negative strategic consequences, especially its tendency to counterbalance China. Therefore, against the background of the increasingly prominent dispute in the South China Sea, India has gradually turned to a more strategic and more macroscopic concept of India and Pacific, and incorporated the issue of the South China Sea into a larger Indian Pacific strategy, thus not only realizing the strategic deployment in the South China Sea, It can also be achieved through some policy fuzziness. Taking into account that the South China Sea issue is not given high priority in the overall strategy of India, its approach to the issue of the South China Sea in the future may still be characterized by policy ambiguity and the pursuit of a balanced approach to the issue of the South China Sea, although it is worth a high degree of vigilance, China needs to grasp the main contradiction between China and India and control the extent, scope and consequences of India's involvement in the South China Sea.
【作者单位】：云南省社会科学院;印度尼赫鲁大学国际关系学院;
【分类号】：D823

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