“战略忍耐”的困境——奥巴马政府对朝政策剖析

发布时间：2019-06-17 10:16

【摘要】：奥巴马政府执政五年来,其对朝"战略忍耐"政策因一系列内在矛盾与缺隐而深陷"欲求交易而不成,维系现状而不得"的困境之中。奥巴马政府将朝鲜实质性"弃核"作为美朝对话的唯一前提的做法在原则上延续了前两任政府对朝"总体交易"的思路,但美国将"弃核"门槛的高悬与外交姿态上的强硬又几乎断绝了这种"交易"当前达成的可能。对朝军事态势上由"延伸威慑"向"针对性威慑"的步步演进表面上旨在阻遏朝鲜军事挑衅与核武开发对其地区盟国的威胁,但恰恰是美国这种强势且压迫性的军事姿态使得朝鲜时刻感到芒刺在背,在极度的不安全感中坚定其"拥核自保"战线。在奥巴马政府大力推进其亚太"再平衡"战略的大背景下,朝核与半岛问题既是美国的安全挑战——拥核的朝鲜的确对美东北亚前沿军事部署构成重大威胁;但在某种意义上也是其战略机遇——以朝核问题为抓手,美国巩固同盟、调整部署、强化存在等一系列举措都得到了口实与助力。出于上述考虑,奥巴马政府对朝的"战略忍耐"实质上没有给出明确地对朝战略指向与长远的战略规划,而是在"总体交易"的传统战略思路与刻意"淡化"问题、"固化"矛盾、对之或"推卸责任",或"因势利导"的机会主义短期路线两者间采取了平衡兼顾、相机而动的实用主义做法。从效果上看,上述做法在强化对朝施压力度、配合助推"再平衡"战略等方面取得了部分成效,但却事实上放任了朝鲜拥核的步伐,恶化了危机的前景,增加了未来解决问题的难度。
[Abstract]:Since the Obama administration has been in power for five years, its policy of "strategic patience" towards North Korea has been mired in the dilemma of "wanting to trade but not maintaining the status quo" because of a series of inherent contradictions and lack of concealment. The Obama administration's practice of making North Korea's substantive "nuclear abandonment" the only prerequisite for dialogue between the United States and North Korea has, in principle, continued the previous two administrations' thinking on the "overall deal" against North Korea, but the United States has suspended the threshold of "nuclear abandonment" from the tough diplomatic posture and almost cut off the current possibility of such a "deal." The gradual evolution of North Korea's military posture from "extended deterrence" to "targeted deterrence" is ostensibly aimed at deterring the threat posed by North Korea's military provocation and nuclear weapons development to its regional allies, but it is precisely the strong and oppressive military posture of the United States that makes North Korea feel on its back at all times and strengthen its "nuclear self-protection" front in the midst of extreme insecurity. Under the background of the Obama administration vigorously promoting its "rebalancing" strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, the North Korean nuclear and peninsula issues are both security challenges for the United States-the nuclear-owned North Korea does pose a major threat to the front military deployment in Northeast Asia, but in a sense, it is also its strategic opportunity-a series of measures such as consolidating the DPRK's nuclear issue, adjusting its deployment, strengthening its existence, and so on. In view of the above considerations, the Obama administration's "strategic patience" to the DPRK essentially does not give a clear strategic direction and long-term strategic planning for the DPRK, but takes a balanced and pragmatic approach between the traditional strategic thinking of the "overall transaction" and the deliberate "desalination" of the problem, "solidifying" the contradiction, or "shirking responsibility," or "guiding the situation" in the short-term line of opportunity. From the point of view of effect, the above measures have achieved some results in strengthening pressure on the DPRK and promoting the strategy of "rebalancing", but in fact, the DPRK has allowed the pace of nuclear support, aggravated the prospect of the crisis, and made it more difficult to solve the problem in the future.
【作者单位】：吉林大学行政学院;吉林大学行政学院国际政治系;
【基金】：2013年国家社科基金重点项目(13AGJ003) 吉林大学基本科研业务费项目——种子基金项目(2013ZZ018) 吉林大学基本科研业务经费项目——科学前沿与交插学科创新项目(2011QY091)
【分类号】：D871.2

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