传统丝绸之路兴衰历史周期研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 16:21

  本文选题：传统丝绸之路 + “一带一路”　； 参考：《河南社会科学》2017年10期

【摘要】："一带一路"在实现"两个一百年"奋斗目标、实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦过程中扮演着重要角色。《传统丝绸之路兴衰历史周期研究》一文提出,中国丝绸之路每轮周期的上升段长于下降段(下降段陡峭),中国丝绸之路的周期提前于中国历史经济周期的运行,中国丝绸之路的周期运行影响了中国历史经济周期的运行。中国历史人口水平是中国历史经济增长的格兰杰原因,而中国历史经济增长不是中国历史人口水平的格兰杰原因。开辟传统丝绸之路的目的在于互通有无实现经济繁荣,对外战争是保障中国丝绸之路兴盛的工具之一而不是目的,是丝绸之路沿线国家经济繁荣的基础;和平签约的方式同样也实现了中国丝绸之路的繁荣,带来的经济发展目的更加明显,包容性更强,发展效果也更好。内部战乱是中国丝绸之路繁盛终结的主因,是中国历史经济周期快速进入衰败期的根源。中国传统丝绸之路兴衰历史周期是中国国内包容与国际包容发展相叠加的历史经济周期,与征战周期完全不同。《"一带一路"场域中区域合作范式深化与重构》一文提出,"一带一路"倡议不但进一步提升了我国对外开放水平,而且还打造了一个全新的区域合作格局和区域合作新模式。随着"一带一路"沿线国家和地区经济一体化的不断深入,区域合作正处在深刻的调整和变革之中,各利益相关者需要在转型发展的关键时期,着力构建合作发展的新范式。《"一带一路"贸易新格局与新秩序》一文提出,我国在促进和周边国家之间的贸易往来、文化交流与经济之间的全方位合作方面做出了大量努力,取得了极大成效,在实现我国与周边国家和地区贸易格局重塑的同时,也通过交流和合作,让我国对外贸易的发展实现了转型升级。可以预见,伴随着"一带一路"的系统化推进,我国区域经济带贸易最终将进入全新的发展时期,不但经济要素会更加有序而自由地流动,资源配置效率和市场融合程度都将不断提升,区域间的贸易合作范围和深度都将进一步拓展,水平也会更高。《"一带一路"下的文明互鉴与融合发展》一文指出,"一带一路"始终坚持和平合作、开放包容、互学互鉴和互利共赢的基本原则,这不但体现了丝路文明之基本精神,也让"一带一路"具有了东西方交流合作的精神象征,势必会借此为世界各国人民再创造一份伟大的文化遗产。而事实上,复兴"一带一路"文明不但能够为世界经济交往指明道路与方向,还能借助国家主导的经济合作和经贸活动,与沿线国家进行文化、文明的交往与交流,在互学互鉴的过程中让沿线国家之间的交往更加紧密。《"一带一路"下全球化与"逆全球化"研究》一文分析指出,一些西方主要资本主义国家目前从全球化的重要推手蜕变成了"逆全球化"的积极推动者,对世界范围内的自由贸易造成了新的冲击。借助欧美推动的国际合作也会在未来一段时间遭遇更大阻力。但全球化的大势不会发生根本逆转,贸易保护性措施只能是有针对性的、临时性的。由于"一带一路"极大追求包容均衡发展,必将对全球化和资源、贸易自由流动产生巨大推动力。
[Abstract]:The "one area and one road" plays an important role in the realization of the "two one hundred years" goal and the Chinese dream of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The operation of the country's historical and economic cycle and the periodic operation of the Chinese silk road have affected the operation of the Chinese historical and economic cycle. The historical population level of China is the Grainger cause of China's historical and economic growth, while the Chinese historical and economic growth is not the original cause of the Chinese historical population level. The purpose of the development of the traditional silk road is to interwork. Whether or not to achieve economic prosperity, foreign war is one of the tools to guarantee the prosperity of the Chinese Silk Road, not the aim, and the basis of the economic prosperity along the Silk Road; the way of peace signing has also realized the prosperity of the Chinese Silk Road, and the purpose of economic development is more obvious, more inclusive and more effective. The war is the main cause of the prosperity of China's Silk Road and the root of the rapid decline period of China's historical and economic cycle. The historical period of the rise and decline of Chinese traditional silk road is the historical economic cycle of China's domestic inclusion and international inclusion and development, completely different from the period of war collection. The "one road" initiative not only further promoted the level of China's opening to the outside world, but also created a new pattern of regional cooperation and new regional cooperation. With the continuous deepening of the economic integration of countries and regions along the "one area and one road", regional cooperation is undergoing profound adjustment and change, Stakeholders need to build a new paradigm for cooperation and development at a critical period of transformation and development. At the same time, the trade pattern of our country and the surrounding countries and regions reshaped, but also through exchange and cooperation, the development of China's foreign trade has been transformed and upgraded. It can be foreseeable that with the systematic promotion of "one area and one road", China's regional economic zone will eventually enter a new period of development, and not only the economic factors will be more orderly and free. The flow of land, the efficiency of resource allocation and the degree of market integration will be continuously improved, and the scope and depth of trade cooperation between the regions will be further expanded and the level will be higher. In principle, it not only embodies the basic spirit of the Silk Road civilization, but also makes the "one way" with the spiritual symbol of the exchanges and cooperation between the East and the West. It is bound to create a great cultural heritage for the people of the world. In fact, the revival of the "one along the road" can not only indicate the way and direction for the world economic exchanges, but also help the world. State led economic cooperation and economic and trade activities, cultural and cultural exchanges and exchanges with countries along the line, in the process of mutual learning and mutual understanding between countries along the line closer. < "one way" under the globalization and "anti globalization") analysis points out that some of the major Western capitalist countries are now from the importance of globalization. The transformation of hands into a "anti globalization" active promoter has created a new impact on free trade worldwide. International cooperation promoted by Europe and the United States will also encounter greater resistance in the future. However, the trend of globalization will not have a fundamental reversal, and trade protection measures can only be targeted and temporary. Along the way, "a great pursuit of inclusive and balanced development will surely produce a great impetus to the free flow of globalization and resources and trade."
【作者单位】： 郑州大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY049)
【分类号】：F125
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本文编号：2109933