对外直接投资对人民币国际化影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 17:42

【摘要】：2008年全球金融危机爆发以及2013年"一带一路"战略的提出为推动我国人民币国际化进程提供了契机。本文通过理论实证相结合的方式,在对我国人民币国际化发展现状,以及我国对外直接投资发展现状进行分析的基础上,具体分析海外直接投资对人民币国际化的影响:一方面母国对东道国的投资过程能够加强母国与东道国的经济联系程度,促进人民币海外需求的扩大。另一方面,ODI拓宽了人民币流向海外的途径,通过与国际金融平台的合作以及促进人民币离岸金融市场的发展,建立起活跃的海外人民币流通机制,扩大人民币的国际职能,人民币需求量扩大,对外直接投资通过这两个方面共同推动人民币国际化进程。在实证分析中采用对外直接投资作为自变量,人民币国际化水平作为因变量,其他货币国际化影响因素作为控制变量。控制变量包含币值稳定和贸易地位。在指标选取上以对外直接投资净额(流量)来衡量对外直接投资因素,以人民币结算占世界贸易和对外直接投资比重作为衡量人民币国际化的指标。以CPI和汇率作为度量币值稳定性的指标;以进口规模和出口规模作为衡量贸易规模的指标。通过向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应分析进行实证检验。最终得到出对外直接投资对人民币国际化有正向影响。在其他条件不变的情况下,对外直接投资净额增加1个百分点,人民币国际化水平提升0.15个百分点。这一实证结果也说明我国可以通过积极推进对外直接投资来推动人民币国际化的发展。应抓住"一带一路"的契机积极推动海外直接投资,以推动人民币区域化、国际化。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the proposal of the "Belt and Road" strategy in 2013 provide an opportunity to promote the internationalization of RMB in China. Through the combination of theory and demonstration, this paper analyzes the current situation of RMB internationalization in China, as well as the current situation of China's foreign direct investment (FDI). On the one hand, the investment process of home country to host country can strengthen the degree of economic connection between home country and host country, and promote the expansion of overseas demand of RMB. On the other hand, ODI has widened the channels through which RMB flows to overseas countries. Through cooperation with international financial platforms and promoting the development of the offshore financial market of RMB, the ODI has established an active mechanism for the circulation of overseas RMB and expanded its international functions. RMB demand expanded, foreign direct investment through these two aspects jointly promote the RMB internationalization process. In the empirical analysis, foreign direct investment is used as independent variable, RMB internationalization level as dependent variable, and other currency internationalization factors as controlling variables. Control variables include currency stability and trade status. The factors of FDI are measured by net outward investment (flow), and RMB settlement accounts for the proportion of world trade and foreign direct investment as the index to measure the internationalization of RMB. CPI and exchange rate are taken as indicators to measure currency stability, and import and export scale are taken as indicators to measure the scale of trade. Vector error correction model, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are used to test. Finally, foreign direct investment has a positive impact on RMB internationalization. Under other conditions, net outward direct investment increased by 1 percentage point and the internationalization level of the yuan rose by 0.15 percentage points. This empirical result also shows that China can promote RMB internationalization by actively promoting foreign direct investment. We should seize the opportunity of "Belt and Road" to actively promote foreign direct investment in order to promote the regionalization and internationalization of RMB.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;F832.6

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