“一带一路”背景下中国与中东欧国家贸易发展潜力实证分析

发布时间：2018-08-12 12:53

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,经济全球化更加深化,随着中国与中东欧国家政治友好关系日益加强,双方的经贸发展更是上了一个新台阶,贸易交往日新月异。就贸易额体量来看,2001年,中国与中东欧双边贸易额只有43亿美元,到了2011年却猛然提升到了529亿美元,2014年再次突破新高达到600亿美元。本文首先介绍了中国与中东欧国家之间的贸易概况,然后进一步分析了中国与中东欧国家贸易规模和结构特点,发现中国与中东欧贸易结构比较单一,双边过半贸易量集中在机器运输设备产品上。第三章主要分析了双边贸易竞争性和互补性关系,结果表明双边贸易竞争性并不强,贸易互补主要体现在资本技术密集型产品方面,而中东欧国家在初级产品市场上具有一定优势,中国应该进一步挖掘贸易潜力。本文第四章构建贸易引力模型,通过40个国家数据找出贸易流量影响因素,进而比较贸易实际流量与预测流量,结果表明中国与中东欧国家贸易潜力巨大。最后通过Michely指数显示出中国与中东欧国家具有较为明显的贸易转移和创造潜力。将这些贸易潜力转化为实际贸易流量需要“一带一路”建设的不断推进。“一带一路”建设重点应该放在提升贸易便利化水平上,即加强沟通合作机制,统一贸易政策标准,制定规范化章程,提高物流港口效率,深化金融合作。最后得出本文结论,根据具体问题提出相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, economic globalization has deepened. With the strengthening of the political and friendly relations between China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the economic and trade development between the two countries has reached a new level and trade exchanges are changing with each passing day. In terms of volume of trade, bilateral trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe, which was only $4.3 billion in 2001, soared to $52.9 billion in 2011 and hit a new high of $60 billion in 2014. This paper first introduces the trade situation between China and Central and Eastern European countries, then further analyzes the scale and structure of trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries, and finds that the trade structure between China and Central and Eastern Europe is relatively simple. More than half of bilateral trade is concentrated on machinery, transport and equipment products. The third chapter mainly analyzes the relationship between bilateral trade competitiveness and complementarity. The results show that bilateral trade competitiveness is not strong, and trade complementarity is mainly reflected in capital-technology-intensive products. The central and eastern European countries have some advantages in the primary product market, China should further tap the trade potential. In the fourth chapter, a trade gravitation model is constructed to find out the influencing factors of trade flows through 40 countries' data, and then to compare the actual trade flows with the forecast flows. The results show that the trade potential between China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe is great. Finally, the Michely index shows that China and the Central and Eastern European countries have obvious trade transfer and creation potential. To turn these trade potentials into actual trade flows requires the continuous development of "Belt and Road" construction. The construction of "Belt and Road" should focus on enhancing the level of trade facilitation, that is, strengthening the mechanism of communication and cooperation, unifying trade policy standards, formulating standardized regulations, improving the efficiency of logistics ports and deepening financial cooperation. Finally, the conclusion of this paper, according to specific problems put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

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