中国对“一带一路”地区出口增长的二元边际及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-11-18 19:46

【摘要】：基于CEPII-BACI-HS1992微观贸易数据库并运用修正的H-K分解方法,对1995年~2015年间中国对"一带一路"沿线地区的出口二元边际及其影响因素进行考察。结果表明:无论是从"一带一路"地区整体还是分产品、区域、国家来看,考察期内中国对"一带一路"沿线地区的出口增长均主要依靠集约边际的带动实现。产品层面,中国对"一带一路"沿线地区的出口扩展边际绝对水平基本处于高位且增幅非常有限;区域层面,除东南亚地区外,中国与其他子区域的出口扩展边际均存在一定的增长空间;国家层面,中国对"一带一路"地区绝大多数国家的出口二元边际呈不同程度的上升趋势,对半数国家的出口增长仍来自集约边际的带动。经济规模、固定贸易成本、可变贸易成本、多边阻力和生产率等是影响中国对"一带一路"沿线各国出口二元边际的重要因素。我国应改变现行高度依赖集约边际带动的贸易发展模式,进一步提升扩展边际在出口增长中的贡献率,推动我国对"一带一路"沿线地区出口贸易的持续、健康和高质量发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the CEPII-BACI-HS1992 microtrade database and the modified H-K decomposition method, this paper investigates the dualistic marginal value of China's export from 1995 to 2015 along "Belt and Road" and its influencing factors. The results show that the growth of China's export to the area along the area of "Belt and Road" is mainly driven by the intensive margin during the inspection period, whether from the whole area of "Belt and Road" or the sub-products, regions and countries. At the product level, the marginal absolute level of China's export expansion to the area along "Belt and Road" is basically high and the growth rate is very limited; At the regional level, apart from Southeast Asia, there is some room for growth in the export expansion margin between China and other sub-regions. At the national level, the dualistic marginal value of China's exports to the vast majority of the countries in Belt and Road region is on an upward trend to varying degrees, and the export growth to half of the countries is still driven by the intensive marginal margin. Economic scale, fixed trade cost, variable trade cost, multilateral resistance and productivity are the important factors that affect the dualistic marginal value of China's exports to countries along Belt and Road. Our country should change the current trade development mode which highly depends on the intensive marginal drive, further enhance the contribution rate of the expanded marginal in the export growth, and promote the sustained, healthy and high quality development of China's export trade to the area along "Belt and Road".
【作者单位】：广东外语外贸大学国际服务经济研究院;暨南大学产业经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA018)
【分类号】：F752.62

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