地方政府与农户农业投资行为关系研究——基于我国“一带一路”沿线省份的经验数据

发布时间：2018-12-13 17:55

【摘要】："一带一路"战略的提出促使我国所在沿线省份形成一个新的区域经济合作体。本文首先在Ramsey模型的基础上对农户农业投资行为进行分析,找出增加农户农业投资的有效路径。然后利用重复剔除纳什均衡的分析方法深入探讨地方政府和农户农业投资的博弈关系,最后通过构建VAR和VEC模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解实证研究两大农业投资主体的协同效应并进行稳健性检验。理论分析认为,农户对农业投资收益率的理性预期和降低农户的资金借贷利率可以提高农户对农业投资的积极性。地方政府农业投资资金是否充裕是农户农业投资的约束条件之一。VAR和VEC模型结果显示地方政府和农户农业投资相互影响,存在较强的相关性,长期来看两者存在稳定均衡的协整关系。未来沿线省份的地方政府应从营造良好的农业投资氛围等软环境着手,在保持自身农业投资稳定可持续的同时努力改善农业投资环境,建立对农户金融扶持的长效机制,通过技能培训提高农户对农业发展的理性预期,从而进一步巩固农户在农业中的主体地位,激励农户农业投资水平的提高。
[Abstract]:The strategy of Belt and Road promotes the formation of a new regional economic cooperation in the provinces along the route of our country. In this paper, based on the Ramsey model, the behavior of farmers' agricultural investment is analyzed to find out the effective way to increase the farmers' agricultural investment. Then, the game relationship between local government and farmers' agricultural investment is discussed by using the analysis method of repeated excluding Nash equilibrium. Finally, the VAR and VEC models are constructed. Using impulse response function and variance decomposition, the synergetic effect of the two major agricultural investors was studied and the robustness test was carried out. The theoretical analysis shows that the rational expectation of farmers' return on agricultural investment and the reduction of farmers' interest rate on funds and loans can improve the enthusiasm of farmers' investment in agriculture. The results of VAR and VEC model show that the local government and farmers' agricultural investment influence each other, and there is a strong correlation between the local government and farmers' agricultural investment. In the long run, there is a stable and balanced cointegration relationship between them. In the future, the local governments of the provinces along the route should start with creating a good environment for agricultural investment, such as creating a good environment for agricultural investment, while maintaining the stability and sustainability of their own agricultural investment, while striving to improve the agricultural investment environment and establishing a long-term mechanism for financial support to farmers. The rational expectation of farmers' agricultural development is raised through skill training, so as to further consolidate the main position of farmers in agriculture and to stimulate the improvement of farmers' agricultural investment level.
【作者单位】：湖南大学金融与统计学院;
【基金】：湖南大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”(编号:531107050178) 湖南省研究生科研创新项目(编号:CX2017B122)
【分类号】：F323

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