基于着色Petri网的情景演化应急预案流程建模

发布时间：2018-06-28 01:11

本文选题：着色Petri网 + 情景演化　；参考：《信息与控制》2013年04期

【摘要】：针对突发事件所处环境的动态特性,结合应急处置与事件演化的适应性,提出一种基于着色Petri网的情景演化应急预案流程建模方法.将着色Petri网引入应急预案的流程建模之中,设计了情景演化下应急处置流程的CPN(colored Petri net)模型;运用随机Petri网的思想将时间概念引入到应急预案的动态建模之中,通过同构的马尔可夫链进行业务流程的性能分析,并设计了库所繁忙概率、变迁利用率和变迁标记流速等一组性能指标;以特大火灾应急预案为例,在验证了模型的有效性的基础上,分析信息资源聚集瓶颈以及关键业务单元;结合分析结果,提出了应急预案流程模型的优化思路,在模型优化的过程中考虑情景要素的影响,实现应急资源的动态配置.
[Abstract]:According to the dynamic characteristics of the emergency environment and the adaptability of emergency disposal and event evolution, a modeling method of scenario evolution emergency plan process based on colored Petri net is proposed. This paper introduces colored Petri net into the process modeling of emergency plan, designs the colored net model of emergency disposal process under scenario evolution, introduces the concept of time into the dynamic modeling of emergency plan by using the idea of stochastic Petri net. This paper analyzes the performance of business process through homogeneous Markov chain, and designs a set of performance indexes, such as busy probability, transition utilization ratio and transition marker flow rate, etc. On the basis of validating the validity of the model, the bottleneck of information resource aggregation and the key business unit are analyzed, and combined with the analysis results, the optimization idea of the emergency plan process model is put forward, and the influence of the scene elements is considered in the process of the model optimization. Realize the dynamic allocation of emergency resources.
【作者单位】：南京邮电大学产业信息安全与应急管理研究中心;南京大学工程管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171117,70871061) 江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK2010524) 中国博士后基金资助项目(20100471289) 第七批次江苏省六大人才高峰项目
【分类号】：D035;TP301.1

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