国际贸易、初始威权类型与民主转型

发布时间：2018-08-29 08:23

【摘要】：作为政治博弈的基本规则,政治制度决定了政治行为体战略选择的范围以及相互作用的结果。随着国际贸易所带来的经济发展和人均收入的增长,威权政体会面对不断扩大的政治参与需求。由于在不同的政治制度下战略选择集合的差异,当初始威权类型为军人政权时国际贸易更容易推动民主转型,而初始威权类型为一党制政权时国际贸易难以推动民主转型。对1945年至2010年威权政体变迁数据库进行计量分析的结果表明,参与国际贸易本身与民主转型并无显著的正相关效应;当纳入与初始威权类型的交互项,在同一贸易额、贸易开放度或出口依赖度时,相较于一党制政权,军人政权有更大的可能性发生民主转型。在相关关系的基础上,韩国和新加坡的比较案例分析揭示了初始威权类型作为条件变量的因果机制。作为军人政权,韩国朴正熙—全斗焕政府在面对劳工运动时倾向于实施刚性的强制手段且难以与反对派开展合作,故在冲击中更为脆弱。作为一党制政权,新加坡人民行动党政府则更善于使用柔性的强制手段并采取包容战略来满足劳工的参政需求,在开放贸易条件下更能保持稳定。
[Abstract]:As the basic rule of political game, political system determines the scope of strategic choice of political actors and the result of interaction. With the economic development and per capita income growth brought about by international trade, authoritarian regimes will face the growing demand for political participation. Because of the difference of strategic choice set under different political systems, international trade is easier to promote democratic transformation when the initial autocracy is military power, and international trade is difficult to promote democratic transformation when the initial autocracy is one-party regime. The econometric analysis of the database of authoritarian regime changes from 1945 to 2010 shows that there is no significant positive correlation between participation in international trade and democratic transition; when the interaction with the initial type of authoritarianism is included, the same volume of trade is included. When trade is open or dependent on exports, military regimes are more likely to undergo democratic transitions than one-party regimes. On the basis of the correlation, the comparative case study between Korea and Singapore reveals the causality mechanism of the initial autocracy as a conditional variable. As a military regime, the government of Park Chung-hee Chun Doo-Wan in South Korea, in the face of the labor movement, tends to impose rigid coercive measures and is difficult to cooperate with the opposition, so it is more vulnerable to the impact. As a one-party government, the Singapore people's Action Party government is better at using flexible coercive measures and adopting an inclusive strategy to meet the needs of labor participation in politics and to maintain stability under open trade conditions.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学国际关系学院;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助)项目“国内政治制度与国际规范的扩散”(批准号:12XNJ007)的成果
【分类号】：D033;F742

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