社会演化中的自稳定、不稳定与临界稳定机制——发展中的自我强化路径与国家富裕

发布时间：2018-12-22 09:04

【摘要】：为什么有些国家能够长期发展并最终实现国家富裕,而有些国家却始终陷入"发展—衰退"的陷阱?这是长期困扰经济和社会学家、政治学家的问题。已有的研究从经济制度、社会组织、政治制度等各个角度进行了探索。然而,现有研究大都试图在某些具体的要素与国家发展之间建立联系,而忽略了国家发展本身的状态。文章认为,社会演化中存在着明显的稳定、不稳定与临界稳定的状态和演化机制。并且这一机制本身与形式上的国家制度无关。只有在一定社会边界条件实现的情况下,内生性地形成自我强化和稳定的社会状态,并进入到能够推动持续发展的自稳定演化路径中,这一社会才能够实现持续的国家富裕和社会稳定。而对于不发达国家而言,由于无法进入到自稳定路径中,即便在临界稳定条件下实现了短期内的经济发展,一旦临界条件变化,社会就会回到不稳定状态并导致大范围的衰退。因此,国家真正富裕和发展的关键是形成自稳定的社会状态并进入到不可逆的自稳定发展路径中去。
[Abstract]:Why are some countries able to grow over the long term and eventually achieve national prosperity while others remain trapped in the "development-recession" trap? This has long been a problem for economic and social scientists and political scientists. The existing research has carried on the exploration from the economic system, the social organization, the political system and so on each angle. However, most of the existing studies attempt to establish a link between some specific elements and national development, while ignoring the state of national development itself. This paper holds that there are obvious stable, unstable and critical stable states and evolution mechanisms in social evolution. And the mechanism itself has nothing to do with the formal state system. Only when certain social boundary conditions are realized, the self-reinforcing and stable social state is formed endogenously, and the self-stable evolution path that can promote sustainable development is entered. Only in this society can we achieve sustained national prosperity and social stability. But for the underdeveloped countries, because they can not enter the self-stable path, even if the short-term economic development is realized under the critical stable condition, once the critical condition changes, the society will return to the unstable state and lead to a large-scale recession. Therefore, the key to a country's real prosperity and development is to form a self-stable social state and enter the irreversible path of self-stable development.
【作者单位】：国家行政学院公共管理教研部;
【分类号】：D035

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