试析政治伊斯兰力量未在中东剧变中发挥突出作用的原因

发布时间：2018-09-04 11:14

【摘要】：2010年底至今发生在中东地区的政治剧变,并非一场伊斯兰革命。本文认为,能力的不足和意愿的缺乏,是中东地区政治伊斯兰力量未在中东剧变中发挥突出作用的两个基本原因。能力的不足,主要体现在这些政治力量与低收入阶层相脱离,而意愿的缺乏是指这些政治力量长期坚持体制内的政治参与战略使它们对参与体制外的抗争行为持消极态度。尽管各种政治伊斯兰力量在剧变后的中东会发挥极为重要的作用,然而不解决脱离下层民众的问题和不能消除西方国家对它们政治意图的疑惑,中东政治伊斯兰力量的发展仍将会受到限制。
[Abstract]:The political upheaval that has taken place in the Middle East since the end of 2010 is not an Islamic revolution. This paper holds that the deficiency of ability and the lack of will are the two basic reasons why the political and Islamic forces in the Middle East have not played a prominent role in the dramatic changes in the Middle East. The lack of ability is mainly reflected in the separation of these political forces from the low-income class, and the lack of will means that these political forces insist on the strategy of political participation in the system for a long time and make them have a negative attitude towards the protest behavior outside the system. Although the various political and Islamic forces will play an extremely important role in the rapidly changing Middle East, they will not solve the problem of separation from the lower classes and will not remove the doubts of the Western countries about their political intentions. The development of political Islamic forces in the Middle East will remain limited.
【作者单位】：兰州大学中亚研究所、政治与行政学院;
【基金】：本人主持的国家社科基金西部项目“中东国家的社会变迁与社会运动研究”(项目批准号13XGJ001) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“社会运动理论视角下的西亚北非政治剧变及其启示研究”(项目批准号为11YJCGJW022) 国家社科基金西部项目“中东国家的社会变迁与社会运动研究(项目批准号为13XGJ001)”的阶段性成果
【分类号】：B968;D815.4

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