甘肃省经济与环境协调性统计分析

发布时间：2018-01-23 03:49

本文关键词： 甘肃省平滑转移回归经济系统环境系统　出处：《兰州财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济与环境的协调发展问题是当今生态经济学中研究的热点,对二者之间关系的深入探讨有助于了解经济系统与环境系统的运行规律,对实现区域性经济环境协调发展有重要的指导意义。甘肃省位于我国西北地区,处于青藏高原、黄土高原和内蒙古高原的交汇处,地域狭长,地理位置特殊,决定了甘肃省生态环境的脆弱性和多样性,同时,甘肃省在“一带一路”的发展规划中占据着重要的战略位置。对甘肃省经济发展与环境的协调性研究有助于甘肃省的可持续发展,对“一带一路”的战略实施具有重要意义。基于以上考虑,本文采用动态分析与静态分析,定性与定量分析相结合的方法,首先,将甘肃省近几十年经济与环境的发展特征进行了静态的统计描述。其次,根据指标特征,采用平滑转移回归模型研究了经济的发展对环境的动态影响,深度探讨了人均GDP与环境之间的非线性关系。最后。在经济子系统和环境子系统中,分别选取10个指标,结合偏最小二乘路径分析法和灰理论对甘肃省2014年14个地级市的经济环境协调发展状况进行了分析,具体研究结果表明。第一,甘肃省人均GDP一直保持稳定增长,但与全国的差距却逐年增大,产业结构分布的不合理是造成这一现象的一个重要原因。甘肃省对工业废水的排放有较好的遏制,并且变化率比较平稳。工业废气的排放和工业固体的产生量逐年增加,变化率具有波动性。第二,人均GDP与人均三废排放之间均存在非线性关系,经济的发展对人均工业固体产生量有正的影响,并有加大的趋势。人均工业废气排放与人均GDP之间存在正“U”型关系,转折点为2004年,在2004年之前,经济的增长有助于减少废水的排放,2004年之后,经济的发展会加大工业废气的排放。相比于工业废气和工业废物,甘肃省对工业废水排放的遏制相对较好,并在2001年到2010年期间,人均GDP的增长对人均工业废水的排放的影响系数为0.2986,即人均GDP每增长1%,工业废水的排放将减少0.2986%。第三,本文采用打分制对甘肃省14个地级市的协调发展状况进行了对比,由于各个地级市地理位置和生态环境存在差异,因此本文提出因地制宜,发展地方特色的策略,找出协调发展得分较高的地级市,来带动甘肃省其他地级市的发展,同时,促进甘肃省整体的发展。
[Abstract]:The coordinated development of economy and environment is a hot topic in ecological economics nowadays. It is helpful to understand the law of operation of economic system and environment system by deeply discussing the relationship between them. Gansu Province is located in the northwest of China, located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the intersection of the Loess Plateau and the Inner Mongolia Plateau, the region is long and narrow, and the geographical location is special. It determines the fragility and diversity of the ecological environment in Gansu Province at the same time. Gansu Province occupies an important strategic position in the development planning of "Belt and Road". The study on the coordination of economic development and environment in Gansu Province is helpful to the sustainable development of Gansu Province. On the basis of the above considerations, this paper adopts the method of combining dynamic analysis with static analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The characteristics of economic and environmental development in Gansu Province in recent decades are described statically. Secondly, according to the characteristics of indicators, the smooth transfer regression model is used to study the dynamic impact of economic development on the environment. The nonlinear relationship between per capita GDP and environment is discussed in depth. Finally, 10 indexes are selected in the economic subsystem and the environment subsystem. Combined with partial least squares path analysis and grey theory, this paper analyzes the coordinated development of economic environment in 14 prefecture-level cities in Gansu province in 2014. The specific results show that the first. The per capita GDP of Gansu Province has maintained a steady growth, but the gap with the whole country has been increasing year by year. The unreasonable distribution of industrial structure is an important reason for this phenomenon. The discharge of industrial wastewater in Gansu Province is well controlled. And the rate of change is relatively stable. Industrial waste gas emissions and industrial solid production increased year by year, the rate of change has volatility. Second, there is a nonlinear relationship between per capita GDP and per capita emissions of three wastes. The development of economy has a positive effect on the per capita industrial solid production and has a tendency to increase. There is a positive "U" type relationship between per capita industrial waste gas emissions and per capita GDP, and the turning point is 2004. Before 2004, economic growth helped to reduce waste water emissions, and after 2004, economic growth would increase emissions from industrial waste, compared with industrial waste and industrial waste. The control of industrial wastewater discharge in Gansu Province is relatively good, and between 2001 and 2010, the influence coefficient of per capita GDP growth on the discharge of industrial wastewater per capita is 0.2986. That is, per capita GDP growth of 1, the discharge of industrial wastewater will be reduced by 0.2986. Third, this paper compares the coordinated development of 14 prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province by using a scoring system. Because there are differences in geographical location and ecological environment of each prefecture-level city, this paper puts forward the strategy of developing local characteristics according to local conditions, and finds out the prefecture-level city with higher score of coordinated development. To drive the development of other prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province, at the same time, to promote the overall development of Gansu Province.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F127

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