青海省工业经济增长与工业“三废”排放关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 04:35

本文关键词： 经济增长工业“三废”排放协整检验系统动力学　出处：《青海大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：最近几年,雾霾天气的频繁出现给生产生活带来了极大不便,甚至威胁到人们的身体健康,工业发展造成的环境污染问题受到前所未有的关注,人民群众对良好生态环境的呼声越来越高。自党的十八大以来,生态环境保护被放在了更加重要的战略位置。青海省是长江、黄河、澜沧江的发源地,其生态地位在国家战略全局中非常重要。对于青海省这样一个经济小省、生态大省来说,如何在发展经济的同时,做好生态环境保护工作,实现经济与环境的协调发展,不仅是实现自身发展的需要,而且也是服务国家大局的需要。因此,本文选取青海省为研究区域,目的在于明晰青海省生态环境质量随经济增长的变化情况,为青海省环境保护政策的制定提供参考。本文对青海省工业经济增长与工业“三废”排放关系的研究分为两个步骤:第一步是在经济增长理论及环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的基础上,通过查询《青海省统计年鉴》与《青海省环境统计公报》等相关资料,获取青海省1990—2014年间的工业总产值与工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业固体废弃物排放量的数据,使用Eviews8.0软件对这些时间变量序列进行协整检验与格兰杰因果关系检验。第二步根据以上分析结果,运用系统动力学的方法,借助Vensim软件,对青海省经济—环境系统进行结构分析,画出因果关系图与系统流图,输入系统动力学方程,建立系统动力学模型,模拟系统运行机制,进行仿真实验,预测青海省2015—2040年间的工业总产值与工业“三废”的变化情况。本文的研究结论是:(1)青海省工业总产值与工业“三废”排放存在长期趋势关系,并且青海省工业总产值与工业“三废”排放之间存在格兰杰因果关系:工业总产值是工业“三废”排放的格兰杰原因,同时工业“三废”排放也是工业总产值的格兰杰原因,即青海省工业总产值与工业“三废”排放相互影响。(2)1990—2040年间,青海省工业总产值呈上升趋势,由1990年的21.23亿元增加到2040年的6251.32亿元;工业废水在2034年之前呈上升趋势,2034达到顶峰后呈下降趋势;工业废气在2027年之前呈上升趋势,2027年达到顶峰后呈下降趋势;工业固体废弃物在2030年之前呈上升趋势,2030年达到顶峰后呈下降趋势。总体而言,青海省工业经济增长与工业“三废”排放呈倒“U”型曲线关系,在2030年前后到达排放拐点,符合EKC假说。(3)加强环境保护力度,加大环境治理投资对减轻污染,对EKC拐点早日到来有至关重要的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent appearance of haze weather has brought great inconvenience to production and life, and even threatened people's health. The environmental pollution caused by industrial development has received unprecedented attention. Since the 18 Party Congress, ecological environment protection has been placed in a more important strategic position. Qinghai Province is the birthplace of Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River. Its ecological status is very important in the overall situation of national strategy. For a small economic province such as Qinghai Province, ecological province, how to do a good job of ecological environment protection while developing economy. To realize the coordinated development of economy and environment is not only the need to realize its own development, but also the need to serve the overall situation of the country. Therefore, this paper selects Qinghai Province as the research area. The purpose is to clarify the changes of ecological environment quality with economic growth in Qinghai Province. In this paper, the relationship between industrial economic growth and industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province is divided into two steps:. The first step is based on economic growth theory and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Through the inquiry of Qinghai Statistical Yearbook and Qinghai Environment Statistics Bulletin, the total industrial output value, industrial waste water discharge and industrial waste gas discharge from 1990 to 2014 were obtained. Industrial solid waste emissions data, using Eviews8.0 software to these time series cointegration test and Granger causality test. The second step based on the above analysis results. By using the method of system dynamics and with the help of Vensim software, the structure of Qinghai economic-environment system is analyzed, the causality diagram and system flow diagram are drawn, and the system dynamics equation is inputted. Establish the system dynamics model, simulate the system running mechanism, carry on the simulation experiment. The change of total industrial output value and industrial "three wastes" in Qinghai Province during 2015-2040 is predicted. The conclusion of this paper is: 1). There is a long-term trend relationship between total industrial output value and industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province. And there is a Granger causality relationship between the total industrial output value and the industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province: the gross industrial output value is the Granger cause of the industrial "three wastes" emissions. At the same time, the discharge of industrial "three wastes" is also the Granger cause of the total industrial output value, that is, the interaction between the total industrial output value of Qinghai Province and the industrial "three wastes" emissions from 1990 to 2040. The total industrial output value of Qinghai Province increased from two billion one hundred and twenty-three million yuan in 1990 to six hundred and twenty-five billion one hundred and thirty-two million yuan in 2040; Industrial wastewater showed an increasing trend before 2034. Industrial exhaust gas showed an upward trend before 2027 and a downward trend after reaching its peak in 2027. Industrial solid waste showed an upward trend before 2030 and a downward trend after reaching its peak in 2030. The relationship between industrial economic growth and industrial "three wastes" emissions in Qinghai Province is in the form of inverted "U" curve. It reached the inflection point of discharge around 2030, in line with the EKC hypothesis. 3) strengthening environmental protection. Increasing investment in environmental control plays an important role in reducing pollution and coming EKC inflexion as soon as possible.
【学位授予单位】：青海大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X70;F427

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