基于替代模型的非点源污染模拟不确定性分析——以石头口门水库汇水流域为例

发布时间：2018-01-23 13:34

本文关键词： 非点源污染替代模型不确定性分析蒙特卡罗克里格　出处：《中国环境科学》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为分析机理模型参数不确定性对非点源污染模拟结果的影响,以石头口门水库汇水流域为研究区,选择采用SWAT模型对研究区非点源污染进行模拟,并应用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)方法对非点源污染机理模拟模型参数进行不确定性分析.但蒙特卡罗方法需要大量的取样并多次运行模拟模型,若直接调用SWAT模型,耗费的时间和资源较多.为降低计算负荷,应用克里格方法建立研究区非点源污染机理模型的替代模型,而实现蒙特卡罗模拟.结果表明:采用克里格方法建立研究区非点源污染SWAT模型的替代模型,不仅可以大幅减小计算负荷,还可以保持较好的精度;在置信水平为90%时,氨氮负荷输出和总磷负荷输出的区间范围分别为0.98×10~3~1.67×10~3t/a,0.29×10~3~0.84×103~t/a;相比于非点源总磷的输出结果,非点源氨氮输出结果的不确定性较大.
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the influence of the parameter uncertainty of the mechanism model on the simulation results of non-point source pollution, the SWAT model was chosen to simulate the non-point source pollution in the catchment basin of Shikoumen Reservoir. Monte Carlo Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the simulation model parameters of non-point source pollution mechanism, but the Monte Carlo method needs a large number of samples and runs the simulation model many times. If the SWAT model is called directly, it will consume more time and resources. In order to reduce the calculation load, the Kriging method is applied to establish the alternative model of the non-point source pollution mechanism model in the study area. The results show that the Kriging method can not only reduce the calculation load, but also maintain a good precision by using Kriging method to establish the alternative model of non-point source pollution SWAT model in the study area. When the confidence level is 90, the range of ammonia nitrogen load output and total phosphorus load output is 0.98 脳 10 ~ (3) N ~ (-1) 1.67 脳 10 ~ (-3) t / a, respectively. 0.29 脳 10 ~ (-3) ~ 0.84 脳 10 ~ (-3) t / a; Compared with the output results of non-point source total phosphorus, the uncertainty of non-point source ammonia-nitrogen output results is greater than that of non-point source total phosphorus output.
【作者单位】：吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室;吉林大学环境与资源学院;
【基金】：吉林省水利厅重点科技项目:石头口门水库汇水流域面源污染预报与预警研究
【分类号】：X52
【正文快照】： 非点源污染机理模型是进行非点源污染量化研究、非点源污染影响评价的有效工具[1].但由于非点源污染机理模型对自然系统的概化,输入信息的误差以及模型参数值的不确定性等因素,使得非点源污染机理模型无法避免不确定性的产生,其中模型参数的不确定性是非点源污染模拟不确定性

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