中国污染密集型产业升级的锁定效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 04:04

本文选题：环境污染　切入点：污染密集型产业升级　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：环境污染问题是当今学界在面对中国经济腾飞和消除贫困取得巨大成就时不可回避的话题。随着经济的增长,污染现象不断发生,民众生活受到不同程度的危害,如何避免污染现象的持续发生则显得尤为迫切。工业污染源93%来自污染密集型产业,但该产业的转型升级并不理想,产业发展因锁定效应的存在而出现路径依赖现象,即初始"粗放型"经济发展模式,在改革开放并伴随中国加入WTO这"历史性事件"的触发下,产业发展被锁定在低端技术水平并沿着这一既定路径徘徊不前,陷入发展的桎梏。因此,本文通过从工业中选择污染密集型产业,从锁定效应的分析视角和方法入手,并从理论和实证两方面来研究污染密集型产业升级与锁定效应相关问题,最后根据研究结论提出相应建议和探析解锁路径。在理论方面,本文通过对Arthur技术锁定效应模型的推导深化,将改革开放和中国加入WTO作为"历史性事件"嵌入到新古典经济学配置模型(锁定效应模型)中,在规模报酬递增的条件下分析出中国产业发展陷入低端技术锁定状态,并根据产业发展历程推断污染密集型产业存在结构锁定、产业发展锁定和资源要素投入锁定。在实证方面,本文通过测度污染密集型产业及其全要素生产率两个指标,分别利用1999—2014、2004—2014年分行业面板数据并基于OLS回归实证分析了污染密集型产业(分类型)升级中存在的锁定效应现象,并通过工具变量法进行稳健性检验。主要结论如下:第一,污染密集型产业发展呈U型锁定状态。污染密集型产业发展存在自我锁定效应,锁定状态呈现"增加、减弱、增加"的U型锁定现象。U型锁定效应表明,"历史性事件"的发生存在改变发展路径的可能,但同时也会强化原有的发展模式,解锁的关键在于开放程度及机制的变革;第二,物质资本、人力资本锁定造成了污染密集型产业升级缓慢、困难。"粗放型"经济增长模式造成了污染密集型产业发展锁定在物质资本和人力资本上,解锁的关键在于物质资本投入模式的变化和提高劳动生产率,政府应优化产业结构,鼓励第三产业吸纳更多劳动力;第三,科技研发投入促进污染密集型产业升级。科技研发投入对污染密集型产业升级和技术进步具有明显的促进作用,作为经济发展要素的科研投入在产业升级中并没有出现锁定效应。这说明,正是由于科研投入不足和技术水平的相对落后,造成了产业升级缓慢且困难。因此,提高企业的污染成本,加强环境管制力度,鼓励产业内部创新能有效避免严重的环境污染现象。
[Abstract]:The problem of environmental pollution is an unavoidable topic in the face of the tremendous achievements of China's economic take-off and poverty eradication. With the economic growth, the phenomenon of pollution continues to occur, and people's lives are endangered to varying degrees. How to avoid the continuous occurrence of pollution is particularly urgent. Industrial pollution source 93% comes from pollution-intensive industry, but the transformation and upgrading of this industry is not ideal, the industrial development appears path dependence phenomenon because of the existence of lock-in effect. That is, the initial "extensive" economic development model, triggered by the reform and opening up and the "historic event" of China's entry into WTO, led to the industrial development being locked in the low-end technology level and hesitated along this established path. Therefore, by choosing pollution-intensive industries from industry, starting with the perspective and methods of lock-in effect, and studying the problems related to the upgrading of pollution-intensive industries and lock-in effects from both theoretical and empirical aspects, Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, the corresponding suggestions and analysis of the unlocking path are put forward. In theory, this paper deepens the analysis of the locking effect model of Arthur technology through the derivation of the locking effect model. Taking the reform and opening up and China's entry into WTO as "historic events", this paper embed the allocation model of neo-classical economics (lock-in effect model). Under the condition of increasing returns of scale, the paper analyzes that the development of Chinese industry falls into the state of low-end technology locking. According to the history of industrial development, it is inferred that there are structural locking, industrial development locking and resource factor investment locking in the pollution-intensive industries. In the empirical aspect, this paper measures the pollution-intensive industries and their total factor productivity. Based on the panel data from 1999-2014 to 2004-2014 and based on OLS regression, this paper analyzes the phenomenon of lock-in effect in the upgrading of pollution-intensive industries (subtypes), and tests its robustness by means of instrumental variable method. The main conclusions are as follows: first, The development of pollution-intensive industries is U-shaped. There is a self-locking effect in the development of pollution-intensive industries. The increase of "U-type locking effect" indicates that the occurrence of "historic events" may change the path of development, but at the same time, it will also strengthen the original development model. The key to unlocking lies in the open degree and the change of mechanism; second, Physical capital, human capital locking has resulted in the slow and difficult upgrading of pollution-intensive industries. The "extensive" economic growth pattern has caused the development of polluting intensive industries to be locked in material capital and human capital. The key to unlocking lies in the change of the pattern of material capital input and the improvement of labor productivity. The government should optimize the industrial structure and encourage the tertiary industry to absorb more labor. Third, The investment in scientific and technological research and development promotes the upgrading of pollution-intensive industries. The investment in scientific and technological research and development plays a significant role in promoting the upgrading of pollution-intensive industries and technological progress. As a factor of economic development, scientific research investment does not appear lock effect in industrial upgrading, which shows that it is the lack of scientific research investment and the relative backwardness of technology level that cause the industrial upgrading to be slow and difficult. Increasing the cost of pollution, strengthening environmental control and encouraging innovation within the industry can effectively avoid serious environmental pollution.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F127

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