人民币汇率冲击中国碳价的非对称效应——基于马尔科夫转换模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 18:25

  本文选题：人民币汇率 + 碳价　； 参考：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2017年06期

【摘要】：汇率可通过影响能源价格和对外贸易,进而冲击碳交易价格。在汇率、能源和碳市场动态联动的框架下,构建汇率冲击碳价的理论框架,基于马尔科夫转换模型的分析表明:汇率波动对碳价的正向和负向冲击存在区域差异,但各区域低波动和高波动状态下的冲击方向一致,而且人民币汇率升贬值对各碳市场的碳价均呈现出显著的非对称效应,且非对称性存在着区域差异。人民币升值对北京、上海和深圳碳价的传递效应更大;而人民币贬值对天津、湖北和广东碳价的传递效应更大。因此,政府在制定政策时应考虑汇率对碳价的非对称冲击效应,全国统一碳市场的构建应充分考虑到区域差异,探索提高中国的碳定价权,进而提高在国际气候谈判中的话语权。
[Abstract]:Exchange rates can impact carbon trading prices by influencing energy prices and foreign trade. In the framework of dynamic linkage of exchange rate, energy and carbon market, the theoretical framework of exchange rate shock carbon price is constructed. The analysis of Markov transformation model shows that there are regional differences between positive and negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on carbon price. However, the impact direction of each region is the same under low volatility and high volatility, and the rise and depreciation of RMB exchange rate show significant asymmetric effect on carbon price in each carbon market, and there are regional differences in asymmetry. A stronger yuan would have a greater transmission effect on carbon prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, while a weaker yuan would have a greater transmission effect on carbon prices in Tianjin, Hubei and Guangdong. Therefore, the government should consider the asymmetric impact of exchange rate on carbon price, and the construction of national unified carbon market should fully take into account regional differences, and explore how to improve China's carbon pricing power. And then improve the right to speak in the international climate negotiations.
【作者单位】： 吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心;吉林大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(2015ZDA017) 吉林大学研究生创新研究计划项目(2016051)
【分类号】：F832.6;X196
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本文编号：1982997