基于离散灰色模型的农村水环境政策减排效应及其空间分异性研究

发布时间：2018-07-31 19:58

【摘要】：我国农村水环境污染日益严重,准确地度量各类农村水环境治理措施的减排效果对于后续政策制定具有重要的参考价值。由于农村水环境污染物监测数据偏少,且存在非平稳性特征,传统方法难以有效度量各类政策作用效果。为此,本文采用多变量离散灰色模型构建减排量测度方法并进行实证研究。首先,梳理了1995年以来我国颁布的农村水环境管理政策,根据政策内容和目标进行归类并选择代表性政策;然后,采用单元调查评估法核算农村各类水污染物排放量;进而将各类政策作为虚拟驱动项引入多变量灰色模型,并采用竞争性模型策略设定一系列减排测度模型,通过适配结果选择最优模型从而度量各类水环境政策的减排效应。研究结果表明,(1)我国农村水环境管理政策总体上具有
[Abstract]:The pollution of rural water environment is becoming more and more serious in China. It is of great reference value to accurately measure the emission reduction effect of various kinds of rural water environment control measures for the subsequent policy formulation. Because the monitoring data of water environmental pollutants in rural areas are small and non-stationary, it is difficult for traditional methods to measure the effects of various policies. Therefore, this paper uses the multivariable discrete grey model to construct the emission reduction measurement method and carries on the empirical research. Firstly, the rural water environment management policy issued since 1995 is combed out, classified according to the policy contents and objectives and selecting representative policies, and then the discharge amount of various kinds of water pollutants in rural areas is calculated by unit investigation and evaluation method. Then, various policies are introduced into the multivariable grey model as virtual driving terms, and a series of emission reduction measurement models are set up by competitive model strategy. The optimal model is selected to measure the emission reduction effect of various water environment policies through adaptation results. The results show that: (1) the rural water environment management policy in China has the following characteristics: 1.
【作者单位】：河海大学商学院;河海大学项目管理研究所;江苏省"世界水谷"与水生态文明协同创新中心;河海大学国际河流研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AZD108) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401052) 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2016B09214,2013B11014)
【分类号】：X321

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