江西省2008-2014年冬季飞机增雨作业对季节降水量的影响及其范围的研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 13:44

本文关键词：江西省2008-2014年冬季飞机增雨作业对季节降水量的影响及其范围的研究　出处：《中国气象科学研究院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：研究人工增雨作业的效果时通常只关心作业目标区的降水是否变化,很少关注作业对目标区以外的区域的影响,尤其是在一个固定区域的长期增雨作业。国外研究表明,人工增雨作业除了可以增加目标区的降水,还可以使目标区下游地区的降水明显增多。人工增雨作业影响范围的研究,对科研和社会经济都有着重要的意义。为了探究一个地区长期增雨作业对降水产生影响的范围,本文使用地面降水资料和南昌雷达资料来评估江西省2008-2014年南昌夏延飞机冬季(11-2月)增雨作业对目标区和下游区的影响。首先,根据7年冬季71次增雨作业期间的平均风向,选取了目标区9个站点和下风方12个站点作为研究对象,并在上风方选取了5个冬季历史平均降水量相关系数和这21个站点最高的站点作为对比站点,从而分别建立了目标区9个站点和下游区12个站点与5个对比站点之间的历史回归方程。比较回归方程计算得到的“自然降水量”和观测得到的作业后降水量发现:作业目标区所选取的9个站冬季平均增雨率为17.30%(t检验的p=0.25),剔除2011年的异常降水数据后,计算得到的平均增雨率为19.59%(p=0.03225)。下游区所选取的12个站点平均增雨率为21.67%(p=0.0013),剔除2011年的异常降水数据后,平均增雨率为22.50%(p=0.0009),其中每个站增雨的显著性统计量值p都小于0.05,下游区增雨效果显著,进一步分析发现,离目标区126千米处的站点仍有明显增雨现象,这意味着江西省冬季增雨作业的影响范围不仅仅局限于目标区,还影响至距离目标区126千米的下游地区。为了建立上述统计结果和云物理变化之间的联系,本文使用基于雷达资料的单元对比时间序列分析方法对作业期间的一次催化个例进行物理检验研究。通过选取回波顶高、回波体积、降水量通量、最大反射率、垂直累积液态水含量这5个回波参量,对作业单元和挑选的作业前发展最相似的对比单元的回波发展特征进行分析,从而找出增雨效果的物理证据。本文选取2014年11月29日14:06-15:05在江西北部地区进行的人工增雨作业个例,采用上述物理检验方法对5个雷达参数物理量进行研究,结果表明:作业单元相对于对比单元出现了明显的正偏离现象,并且云体单元成熟阶段持续时间明显延长,可持续至作业后两个小时,说明作业效果明显。通过单体的追踪信息可以发现,被作业单元将移动到目标区域150千米以外的地方,这使得部分因播云作业增加的降水下落在下游区。这也为统计结果指出的“影响范围可达126千米”提供了物理证据。由于本文采取的是后验的研究方式,并且样本较少,观测方式较单一并且缺少系统科学的随机试验设计,所以本文的结论在一定程度上存在不足。对于人工增雨影响范围更加科学的研究还需要科学的随机试验设计和更综合的观测与评估方法。
[Abstract]:When studying the effect of artificial precipitation operation, we usually only care about the change of precipitation in the target area, and pay little attention to the effect of operation on the area beyond the target area, especially in a fixed area. Research abroad shows that in addition to increasing rainfall in the target area, the precipitation in the target area can be increased significantly in the area of the target area. It is of great significance for scientific research and social economy to study the influence range of artificial precipitation operation. In order to explore the scope of long-term precipitation enhancement affected by precipitation in a region, the ground precipitation data and Nanchang radar data were used to assess the impact of winter precipitation in 11-2 years on the 2008-2014 and the 11-2 months in Jiangxi province. First of all, according to the average wind direction during the 7 years of the 71 winter precipitation, select the target area 9 sites and 12 sites downwind as the research object, and on the upper side of selected 5 Winter historical average precipitation correlation coefficient and the 21 highest site site as compared to the site, are established. The history of the regression equation between the 12 sites and 9 sites downstream of the target zone area and 5 Comparison sites. Comparison of the calculated regression equation of natural precipitation and precipitation observed after the operation found that 9 stations selected work target area average winter rainfall rate was 17.30% (t test p=0.25), abnormal precipitation data to eliminate in 2011, the average growth rate of 19.59% to calculate the rain (p=0.03225). The 12 sites selected downstream area average rainfall rate was 21.67% (p=0.0013), the abnormal precipitation excluding data in 2011, the average rainfall rate was 22.50% (p=0.0009), which was significant statistics each station rainfall values of P are less than 0.05, the downstream area rainfall effect is significant, further analysis showed that the target. Area 126 kilometers of the site still has obvious precipitation phenomenon, which means that Jiangxi province increased in winter rain influence range is not limited to the target area and downstream areas also affect the distance to the target area of 126 km. In order to establish the relationship between the above statistical results and the change of cloud physics, we use the method of cell contrast time series analysis based on radar data to conduct a physical examination of a case during operation. By selecting the echo top, echo volume and precipitation flux, maximum reflectivity, VIL the 5 echo parameters, echo characteristics of the development of the most similar to the development of comparative unit operation unit and selected before operation were analyzed, so as to find out the physical evidence of precipitation effects. This paper selects the case of artificial rain operation in November 29, 2014 14:06-15:05 in northern Jiangxi area, using the method of physical test study on 5 radar parameters of physical measurement results show that: the work unit comparison unit appeared positive deviation phenomenon is obvious relative to the cloud and lengthen unit mature stage duration, two hours to sustainable operation after the operation, the effect is obvious. Through tracking information of the monomer, it is found that the operation unit will move to 150 kilometers away from the target area, which makes part of the precipitation increased due to cloud seeding operation in the downstream area. This also provides physical evidence for the "impact range of up to 126 kilometre". Because this paper adopts a posteriori research method, and has fewer samples, and the observation way is single. The more scientific research on the influence of artificial precipitation is also necessary for the scientific randomized trial design and more comprehensive observation and evaluation methods.
【学位授予单位】：中国气象科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P481

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