深圳市极端气候时空特征及其灾害风险评估

发布时间：2018-01-09 01:09

本文关键词：深圳市极端气候时空特征及其灾害风险评估　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：深圳是我国典型快速城市化地区,城市化发展带来了人口集聚与城市扩张,加上深圳地处我国南部沿海,是气候变化影响的重要区域,通过对深圳市开展极端气候的时空分异与灾害风险评估研究,对于市域尺度防范极端气候带来的危害,完善城市可持续发展的防御体系具有重要意义。本文基于深圳市1953-2015共63年的气象数据,借助R语言的RclimDex1.0软件进行极端温度和极端降水指数计算,利用线性趋势法和局部加权回归进行时间序列分析,通过气象插值软件ANUSPLIN进行空间分异可视化计算,运用ArcGIS10.3平台,分析2004年至2015年各极端气候指数时空变化。依据历史气象数据阐述极端风的特征。而后,基于IPCC极端气候管理的理论及深圳市60多年的极端气候特征,构建由危险性、暴露度及脆弱性的深圳市极端气候灾害风险评估框架和指标体系,分别对深圳市极端温度、极端降水、极端风灾害进行灾害风险评估,依据历史灾情数据和社会关注度的AHP法确定各类灾害的权重,得到极端气候灾害风险等级。主要研究结论如下:(1)极端气候指数及其曲线拟合表明1953-2015年极端高温和极端低温均为上升趋势,气候变暖,近10几年城市变暖减缓;极端降水的频率和强度有下降趋势,持续时间上升显著。极端降水强度、频率近十几年有所抬头。极端高温西高东低,极端降水方面,东北部频率较高、持续时间长,西北部强度大。2004年至2015年,日最高气温极高值在非山区降低,呈现出明显的地形差异;降水频率几乎全境增加,降水强度部分地区降低,非山区持续时间增加。影响深圳市的极端风以热带气旋影响最大,且集中在夏季,近年来热带气旋影响时间有延长的趋势,空间上主要集中在沿海和高地以及龙岗区的部分区域。(2)深圳市极端气候灾害风险集中在深圳西北光明新区、西南新安和南山街道、中部、东北龙城和坑梓等街道及东部部分地区。其中,除中部地区(包括盐田)、东部葵涌、大鹏部分区域,极端降水和极端风灾害风险起主要作用外,其他地区为极端温度和极端降水风险起主导作用。西北部、西南部分地区、东北部龙城、坑梓、坪山等区域,高危险性和高暴露度占主导;深圳中部地区,高暴露和高脆弱为主;东部葵涌、大鹏等地区距离海洋较近,以高危险高脆弱为主。
[Abstract]:Shenzhen is a typical rapid urbanization area in China. Urbanization brings population agglomeration and urban expansion, plus Shenzhen is located in the southern coastal area of China, which is an important area affected by climate change. Through the research on the spatial and temporal differentiation and disaster risk assessment of extreme climate in Shenzhen, it can prevent the harm caused by extreme climate on the city scale. It is of great significance to perfect the defense system of urban sustainable development. This paper is based on the meteorological data from 1953 to 2015 in Shenzhen. The extreme temperature and precipitation index are calculated by R language RclimDex1.0 software, and the time series analysis is carried out by using linear trend method and local weighted regression. Through the meteorological interpolation software ANUSPLIN to carry on the spatial differentiation visualization computation, uses the ArcGIS10.3 platform. The spatial and temporal variations of extreme climatic indices from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed. The characteristics of extreme winds were described based on historical meteorological data. Based on the theory of IPCC extreme climate management and the extreme climate characteristics of Shenzhen for more than 60 years, the risk assessment framework and index system of extreme climate disasters in Shenzhen are constructed by risk, exposure and vulnerability. The disaster risk assessment of extreme temperature, extreme precipitation and extreme wind disaster is carried out, and the weight of all kinds of disasters is determined according to the historical disaster data and the AHP method of social concern. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the extreme climate index and its curve fitting show that the extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature are rising trend and the climate is warming from 1953 to 2015. In recent 10 years, urban warming has slowed down; The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation have a downward trend, and the duration is increasing significantly. The intensity of extreme precipitation, the frequency of which has been rising in recent ten years, the extreme high temperature, high temperature, high east and low, and extreme precipitation, the frequency of northeast is relatively high. From 2004 to 2015, the maximum daily temperature decreased in non-mountainous areas, showing a significant difference in topography. The frequency of precipitation increased almost all over the country, the intensity of precipitation decreased in some areas, and the duration of non-mountainous area increased. The extreme wind affecting Shenzhen City was the most affected by tropical cyclones, and concentrated in summer. In recent years, there is a tendency to prolong the time of tropical cyclone, mainly concentrated in coastal and highland areas and some regions of Longgang District.) the risk of extreme climate disasters in Shenzhen is concentrated in Guangming New area, northwest of Shenzhen. Southwest Xinan and Nanshan streets, Central, Northeast Longcheng and Hang Zi streets and parts of the east. Among them, the central region (including Yantian, East Kwai Chung, part of Dapeng). Extreme precipitation and extreme wind disaster risk play a major role, other areas for extreme temperature and extreme precipitation risk play a leading role. Northwest, southwest part of the region, northeast Longcheng, Pengzi, Pingshan and other regions. High risk and high exposure; In the central part of Shenzhen, high exposure and high vulnerability are dominant; East Kwai Chung, Dapeng and other areas close to the sea, to high risk and high vulnerability.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P429;P463.3

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