中国锂矿资源需求预测及供需分析

发布时间：2018-01-12 19:20

本文关键词：中国锂矿资源需求预测及供需分析　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：锂矿资源作为我国重要的新兴产业资源和战略资源,广泛应用于电池、润滑脂、玻璃陶瓷、医药等领域。随着中国经济转型、产业结构调整以及新能源汽车的迅猛发展,我国对锂矿资源的需求量呈现逐年上升态势。2015年,我国碳酸锂的消费量占到世界37.16%,成为世界上最大的碳酸锂消费国。但受自然条件、技术水平等影响,我国锂矿资源整体处于供不应求的状态。中国锂矿资源对外依存度较高,硬锂资源开发进程缓慢,自给率低且来源复杂。因此,对我国未来锂矿资源供需形势进行分析具有重要的现实意义:一是为我国锂矿资源需求预测提供基础研究支撑;二是为我国锂矿资源产业可持续发展和同类矿产资源开展需求预测提供参考;三是为我国地质调查、矿政管理、锂矿资源规划编制、新能源政策制定等提供决策参考依据。本文依托《我国矿产资源保障程度动态跟踪》科研项目,在分析全球锂矿资源概况、生产消费现状和贸易格局的基础上,结合我国锂矿资源消费与行业经济发展的基本规律,对我国2030年以前锂矿资源需求进行预测,并对未来我国锂矿资源供应能力进行分析,得到以下认识:(1)我国锂矿资源最主要的四个消费部门是电池、润滑脂、玻璃陶瓷、医药,2015年各部门消费占比分别为51%、15%、12.8%、8.2%。综合运用部门需求预测法和灰色预测模型法,预测我国2020年、2025年、2030年锂矿资源需求量(以碳酸锂计)分别为13.94万吨、21.61万吨、38.43万吨。(2)综合我国锂矿资源现状、主要锂矿企业产能供给及盐湖高镁锂比提锂技术突破等方面,对我国锂矿资源市场供应趋势进行分析,预测我国2020年、2025年、2030年碳酸锂产量分部为11.93万吨、19.21万吨、30.93万吨。未来我国锂矿资源整体处于供不应求状态。(3)为解决我国锂矿资源供需矛盾,保障锂矿资源的可持续供应,我国应加大境内锂矿资源勘查开发力度,完善高镁锂比盐湖卤水提锂工艺并加快规模化投产;同时加快提升我国动力锂电池整体性能,建立废旧锂电池回收利用体系。
[Abstract]:As an important new industry resource and strategic resource in China, lithium mineral resources are widely used in battery, grease, glass ceramics, medicine and other fields. With the adjustment of industrial structure and the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium mineral resources in China has been increasing year by year. In 2015, the consumption of lithium carbonate in China accounted for 37.16% of the world. China has become the largest consumer of lithium carbonate in the world. However, due to the influence of natural conditions and technical level, the overall supply of lithium ore resources in China is in short supply, and the external dependence of lithium ore resources in China is relatively high. The development of hard lithium resources is slow, self-sufficiency rate is low and the source is complex. It is of great practical significance to analyze the supply and demand situation of lithium ore resources in China in the future: first, to provide basic research support for the demand prediction of lithium ore resources in China; The second is to provide reference for the sustainable development of China's lithium mineral resources industry and the development of demand prediction of the similar mineral resources; The third is to provide the decision-making reference for geological survey, mineral administration management, planning and compilation of lithium ore resources, and new energy policy formulation. This paper relies on the "dynamic tracking of Mineral Resources guarantee degree in China" scientific research project. On the basis of analyzing the general situation of global lithium mineral resources, the present situation of production and consumption and the pattern of trade, the basic laws of the consumption of lithium ore resources in China and the economic development of the industry are combined. This paper forecasts the demand of lithium ore resources before 2030 in China, and analyzes the supply capacity of lithium ore resources in China in the future, and obtains the following understanding: 1) the four main consumer departments of lithium mineral resources in China are batteries. In 2015, the consumption ratio of lubricating grease, glass ceramics, medicine and medicine was 51 1 / 15 and 12. 8% respectively. The department demand forecasting method and the grey forecasting model method were used synthetically. It is predicted that the demand for lithium mineral resources (in terms of lithium carbonate) in 2020, 2025 and 2030 in China is 139,400 tons and 216,100 tons respectively. Based on the present situation of lithium mineral resources in China, the capacity supply of main lithium mine enterprises and the breakthrough of lithium technology with high magnesium-lithium ratio in salt lake, the market supply trend of lithium ore resources in China is analyzed. It is predicted that the production of lithium carbonate in China will be 119,300 tons and 192,100 tons on 2020, 2025 and 2030. In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium ore resources in China, and to ensure the sustainable supply of lithium ore resources, 309,300 tons. China should strengthen the exploration and development of lithium ore resources in China, improve the lithium-extraction process in brine with high magnesium-lithium ratio and speed up the production on a large scale. At the same time, speed up the improvement of the overall performance of power lithium batteries in China, and establish the recycling system of waste lithium batteries.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.1

【相似文献】