重庆市手足口病动态传播特性分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 14:58

本文选题：手足口病 + TSIR模型　；参考：《青岛大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：手足口病主要是由肠道病毒71型和柯萨奇病毒A16引起的传染病,发病人群主要以5岁以下人群为主,手足口病已经成为了我国重要的公共卫生挑战。2015年,我国的手足口病发病报告人数为1767931人,死亡人数为114人。为研究手足口病的传播,需要研究不同龄组的感染力和手足口病的接触率。重庆作为中国西南地区唯一的直辖市,与西南地区的其他省市相比有较大的人口密度,具有典型的中国东南方发病率季节性模式,即每年会有两个高峰,分别在每年的春季和每年的冬季。重庆市手足口病的患病人群主要以6岁以下儿童为主,占93%,发病最多的人群在2-3岁。安徽省六安市2008年手足口病暴发前各年龄组的感染力相同,而暴发后不同年龄组的感染力不同,因此重庆市手足口病不同年龄组的感染力可能不同。本文基于重庆市2008年第17周~2011年第52周手足口病分年龄组的数据,使用催化模型计算了重庆市手足口病的感染力,利用时间序列易感者-感染者-康复者(time series susceptible infected recovered(TSIR))模型计算了重庆市手足口病随时间变化的接触率,分析了学校假期及气候因素(包括平均气温、相对湿度、降水量、光照时数)对接触率季节性的影响。研究结果表明:1)不同年龄组的手足口病的感染力不同,3-4岁感染力最大,在成人中,35-39岁的感染力最大;2)重庆市手足口病的接触率呈年季节性;3)气候因素对接触率的变化没有影响;寒暑假期间接触率的增加,意味着在重庆手足口病社区的接触率高于在学校的接触率。手足口病的控制措施应着重于幼儿,特别是3-4岁儿童暑假期间在社区的防护。
[Abstract]:Hand, foot and mouth disease is mainly caused by enterovirus 71 and Coxsackie virus A16. The majority of patients are under 5 years old. Hand, foot and mouth disease has become an important public health challenge in China in 2015. The number of HFMD reported in China was 1767931 and the death toll was 114. In order to study the spread of HFMD, it is necessary to study the infectivity of different age groups and the exposure rate of HFMD. As the only municipality directly under the Central Government in southwest China, Chongqing has a large population density compared with other provinces and cities in the southwest, and it has a typical seasonal pattern of incidence in southeast China, that is, there are two peaks per year. In spring and winter, respectively. The prevalence of HFMD in Chongqing was mainly children under 6 years old (933%). The infectious power of each age group before the outbreak of HFMD in Lu'an City of Anhui Province in 2008 was the same, but the infectious power of different age groups was different after the outbreak, so the infectious power of different age groups of HFMD in Chongqing may be different. Based on the age group data of HFMD in Chongqing from the 17th week of 2008 to the 52nd week of 2011, the infectious force of HFMD in Chongqing was calculated by using catalytic model. The time series susceptible infected recovered time series susceptible infected model was used to calculate the exposure rate of hand, foot and mouth disease over time in Chongqing, and the school vacation and climate factors (including mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) were analyzed. The seasonal effect of light on the contact rate. The results showed that the infectivity of HFMD in different age groups was the highest in 3-4 years old, and the highest in adults aged 35-39 years. 2) the exposure rate of HFMD in Chongqing was seasonal 3) the climatic factors had no effect on the exposure rate. The increase of exposure rate during winter and summer vacation means that the exposure rate of HFMD communities in Chongqing is higher than that in schools. Hand-foot-mouth disease control measures should focus on young children, especially 3-4-year-old children during summer vacation in the community protection.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：O175

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