中国极端气温及降水事件的时空特征研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 18:41

本文选题：极端温度事件 + 极端降水事件　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：极端气候事件主要包括温度和降水,是气候变化极值研究的重要方面。本文选取全国756个气象站的逐日地面气候资料数据,对原始数据进行质量控制后,计算得到多个中国1960年到2012年的极端温度事件和极端降水事件的指标,并对这些指标进行时空变化特征分析,得到了极端温度事件和降水事件在我国发生的规律,本文的主要结果如下:1.就全国平均而言,全国的极端高温事件发生频次有所增加;而极端低温事件发生频次减少,且减少幅度大于高温事件发生的频次。2.全国除青藏高海拔地区,都有发生极端高温事件的可能性,但发生频次由南向北减少,极端温度高值中心位于吐鲁番盆地,且持续时间也较长;秦岭-淮河以南地区几乎不会发生极端低温灾害事件,而北方则有发生的可能性,但近年来极端低温事件也在减少。3.全国降水年累计总量多年来没有明显变化趋势,且中雨、大雨和暴雨日数变化也没有明显趋势;但强降水和极强降水的年累计降水量增加,极端强降水的强度有所增长。4.全国仍以秦岭-淮河为界,以北地区易发生持续干旱事件,而以南地区可则有较大的可能性发生极端降水事件,极端降水的高值中心位于江西东南部和福建西部交界地区,以及华南沿海的部分地区,此外,由于西南涡的存在,四川部分地区也是强降水事件的高发地带。5.将我国分为10类区域,各类区域易受不同的极端事件影响,某类地区也可能受多种极端事件影响,气候条件更为脆弱。
[Abstract]:Extreme climate events, including temperature and precipitation, are important aspects of climate change extremum study. In this paper, the daily surface climate data of 756 meteorological stations in China are selected, and after the quality control of the original data, the indexes of extreme temperature events and extreme precipitation events from 1960 to 2012 in China are calculated. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of these indexes are analyzed and the law of extreme temperature events and precipitation events occurring in China is obtained. The main results of this paper are as follows: 1. On the national average, the frequency of extreme high temperature events in China has increased, while the frequency of extreme low temperature events has decreased, and the extent of reduction is larger than the frequency of high temperature events. 2. There is a possibility of extreme high temperature events occurring in the whole country except in the high altitude areas of Qinghai-Tibet, but the frequency of occurrence decreases from south to north, and the center of extreme high temperature is located in the Turpan basin and lasts for a long time. In the south of Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River, there is almost no extreme low temperature disaster event, but in the north there is a possibility of happening, but in recent years, the extreme low temperature event is also decreasing by 0.3%. There is no obvious change trend in the annual accumulative total precipitation in China for many years, and there is no obvious trend in the number of moderate rain, heavy rain and heavy rain days, but the annual accumulative precipitation of strong precipitation and extremely heavy precipitation increases, and the intensity of extreme heavy precipitation increases by .4. The whole country is still bounded by the Qinling-Huaihe River, and the area north is prone to sustained drought events, while extreme precipitation events may occur in the south of the country. The high value center of the extreme precipitation is located in the border area between the southeast of Jiangxi and the western part of Fujian. In addition, due to the existence of southwest vortex, some areas of Sichuan Province are also the high incidence area of heavy precipitation events. China is divided into 10 types of regions, each region is vulnerable to different extreme events, a certain type of region may also be affected by multiple extreme events, the climatic conditions are more fragile.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P426.6;P423

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