不确定供应及需求下单周期库存管理问题的研究

发布时间：2018-07-13 08:57

【摘要】：库存管理是对制造业或服务业生产、经营全过程的各种物品,生产成品以及其他资源进行管理和控制,使其储备保持在经济合理的水平上.在库存管理过程中,企业往往要面对众多不确定性因素,如市场的不确定需求、供应商的不确定供应等.现实生活中这些不确定性因素是难以把握的,当企业无法及时满足市场产生的需求时,就会产生缺货损失.因此,企业为了不丢失客户资源,可以提前预备库存,这样就可以相应地减少不确定性因素产生的损失.但同时也会增加相应的费用,如库存成本费用或剩余产品的处理费用.针对含有不确定性的库存管理问题,一方面,本论文在不确定供应下研究单阶段库存管理问题,其中不确定供应比例由模糊变量来表示.进而由可信性优化理论得到可信性等价值凸规划模型.在三角和梯形供应模式下对所得模型进行分析并对可行域分解方法进行归纳,最后通过比较子区域的局部最优解得到全局最优解.另一方面,本论文又在供应和需求都不确定的情况下,对多阶段库存管理问题进行研究.由零售商的多次订购机会建立可信性动态规划模型,其中供应与需求的不确定性都是由模糊变量的可信性分布刻画.本论文分别用期望值与等价值作为衡量指标,得到均值凸规划模型.通过分析可信性动态规划模型,讨论各阶段均值费用的性质,得到各阶段最优订购策略.本论文的主要工作可以概括为以下几个方面:(1)在模糊环境下,用可信性分布对不确定因素进行描述并建立可信性等价值模型;(2)分析和讨论可信性等价值模型的性质,设计了基于可行域分解的求解方法;(3)针对多阶段库存管理问题,建立可信性动态规划模型;(4)分析和讨论可信性动态规划模型的性质,推导出阶段n的最优订购策略的解析解;(5)通过数值实验说明两种模型建模思想和求解方法的有效性,并给出模型中各参数的灵敏度分析.
[Abstract]:Inventory management is the management and control of all kinds of goods, finished products and other resources in the whole process of manufacturing or service industry, so as to keep their reserves at a reasonable level of economy. In the process of inventory management, enterprises often face many uncertain factors, such as the uncertain demand of the market, the uncertain supply of suppliers and so on. In real life, these uncertainties are difficult to grasp, when enterprises can not meet the needs of the market in time, there will be a loss of stock. Therefore, in order not to lose customer resources, enterprises can prepare inventory in advance, which can reduce the loss caused by uncertainty factors. But it will also increase the corresponding costs, such as inventory costs or disposal costs of surplus products. For the inventory management problem with uncertainty, on the one hand, this paper studies the one-stage inventory management problem under the uncertainty of supply, in which the uncertain supply ratio is represented by fuzzy variables. Furthermore, the value convex programming model of credibility is obtained from the credibility optimization theory. The model is analyzed in triangular and trapezoidal supply mode, and the feasible domain decomposition method is summarized. Finally, the global optimal solution is obtained by comparing the local optimal solutions of subregions. On the other hand, under the uncertainty of supply and demand, this paper studies the problem of multi-stage inventory management. The credibility dynamic programming model is established by the multiple ordering opportunities of retailers, in which the uncertainty of supply and demand is characterized by the credibility distribution of fuzzy variables. In this paper, the mean convex programming model is obtained by using the expected value and the equal value as the measurement index. By analyzing the credibility dynamic programming model, the properties of the average cost of each stage are discussed, and the optimal ordering strategy for each stage is obtained. The main work of this paper can be summarized as follows: (1) using credibility distribution to describe uncertain factors and establish credibility value model in fuzzy environment; (2) analyzing and discussing the properties of credibility value model. A solution method based on feasible domain decomposition is designed; (3) the credibility dynamic programming model is established for multi-stage inventory management; (4) the properties of credibility dynamic programming model are analyzed and discussed. The analytical solution of the optimal ordering strategy for stage n is derived. (5) the validity of the two modeling methods and the sensitivity analysis of the parameters in the model are illustrated by numerical experiments.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：O227

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