东北地区雪灾风险综合评价

发布时间：2018-11-23 10:03

【摘要】：积雪是地表覆盖中非常活跃、非常敏感的自然要素之一,能够对人类活动和自然环境的诸多方面产生影响。过量的降雪和积雪能够引发一系列冰雪灾害,因而我国也是雪灾的高发区之一。对草原牧区而言,雪灾是冬春季主要的自然灾害,能够造成牧草掩埋,牲畜采食困难、冻伤死亡,牧民生活困难,极大地威胁到畜牧业经济的发展。对于其他地区而言,突发性的、大范围的雪灾导致供水供暖、电力通信、交通运输等行业严重受损,农业、林业、渔业等受灾,给当地经济建设和人民生活带来巨大的影响。因此,雪灾的研究和雪灾风险的综合评价显得十分的必要和重要。本文以东北地区为例,搜集整理了诸多的气象、地形地貌、社会经济、历史雪灾等数据资料,利用GIS技术与方法,构建雪灾风险综合评价模型,对该地区的雪灾风险进行综合的评价和分析,并提出针对性的防灾减灾对策和建议。主要的内容有:(1)雪灾风险综合评价模型的指标体系及构建过程;(2)雪灾气象指标的空间分布及年际变化趋势,潜在雪灾危险性的空间分布特点;(3)历史雪灾频率和强度、历史雪灾危险性的空间分布特点;(4)雪灾致灾危险性计算模型和空间分布特点;(5)雪灾承灾体的暴露性、脆弱性、地区救灾应灾能力的基本情况和空间分布,承灾体脆弱性的计算模型和空间分布特点;(6)雪灾风险等级划分、综合评价结果,以及针对具体地区提出的防灾减灾对策和建议。得出了结论:(1)雪灾潜在危险性比较高的地区分布在大、小兴安岭以及长白山等山区,这些地区雪多、雪深;比较低的地区分布在内蒙古的东南部、松嫩-辽河平原的中西部以及辽东半岛大部,这些地区降(积)雪比较少,不容易形成雪灾。53年来,天气的极端性导致整个地区发生雪灾的潜在危险性变高。(2)呼伦贝尔高原是东北地区雪灾频率和强度最高的地区,长白山地区次之,这两个地区的雪灾频繁出现,灾情严重,历史雪灾危险性比较高;松嫩-辽河平原、小兴安岭地区不容易发生雪灾,历史雪灾危险性比较低。(3)雪灾致灾危险性最高的地区是呼伦贝尔高原,特别是草原牧区;较高的地区在东北的东南部,包括黑龙江南部、吉林的中南部、辽宁的东北部等;危险性最低的地区有两个,分别为以吉林白城市为核心的松嫩平原区域和辽宁的西部地区。(4)综合承灾体暴露性、敏感性和救灾应灾能力,发现松嫩-辽河平原地区承灾体脆弱性最高,具体包括黑龙江西南部、吉林中部和辽宁的北部及半岛南部,这些地区人口稠密、经济发达,承灾体暴露性、敏感性和救灾能力均很高;大、小兴安岭及长白山等地区,人口稀少、经济落后,由于承灾体暴露性、敏感性、救灾应灾能力均很低,承灾体脆弱性最低。(5)雪灾风险极高的地区包括呼伦贝尔高原、黑龙江南部、吉林东南部、辽宁北部;风险较高的地区分布在风险极高地区的周围,具体分布在东北的东南部及西部的部分地区,地域范围远大于极高风险地区;风险比较低(较低和极低)的地区分布在东北北部山区、大兴安岭东侧与松嫩-辽河平原西部之间的广大地区,尤其以大兴安岭地区、蒙黑吉三省区交界地区和辽宁西部地区的雪灾风险最低。(6)东北地区的雪灾防治工作包括做好雪灾的气象预报、预警和应急管理工作,加大雪灾防灾减灾的投入,增强全民的防灾意识和自救能力,建立健全雪灾综合保险体系等。除此之外,不同的地区还应该针对自身实际情况做好重点规划安排。
[Abstract]:Snow is one of the most active and sensitive natural elements in the surface coverage, and can have an impact on many aspects of human activity and natural environment. The excess of snow and snow can trigger a series of snow and snow disasters, so our country is also one of the high-hair areas of the snow disaster. For the grassland and pastoral area, the snow disaster is the main natural disaster in the spring and spring, can cause the herbage to be buried, the livestock feed is difficult, the frostbite death, the herdsmen's life is difficult, and the development of the animal husbandry economy is greatly threatened. For other regions, sudden and large-scale snow disasters have caused serious damage to the industries such as water supply heating, electric power communication, transportation and other industries, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and the like, and has a great impact on the local economic construction and the people's life. Therefore, the study of the snow disaster and the comprehensive evaluation of the risk of the snow disaster are very necessary and important. In this paper, based on the Northeast China, a number of data such as the weather, the landform, the social economy, the history and the snow disaster are collected and sorted, and the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of the snow disaster is constructed by using the GIS technology and the method, and the risk of the snow disaster in the region is comprehensively evaluated and analyzed. The countermeasures and suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction are put forward. The main content is: (1) the index system and the construction process of the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of the snow disaster; (2) the spatial distribution of the snow disaster weather index and the inter-annual change trend and the spatial distribution characteristics of the potential snow disaster risk; and (3) the frequency and the intensity of the historical snow disaster, The spatial distribution characteristics of the risk of history and snow disaster; (4) the calculation model and the spatial distribution characteristics of the disaster risk of the snow disaster; (5) the basic and spatial distribution of the exposure, the vulnerability and the disaster response capacity of the region, The calculation model and the spatial distribution characteristics of the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body; (6) the classification of the risk grade of the snow disaster, the comprehensive evaluation result, and the countermeasures and suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction in the specific area. The results are as follows: (1) The region with high potential risk of the snow disaster is distributed in the mountainous areas such as the Great, the Xiaoxing 'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain, and the snow is more and the snow is deep in these areas; the relatively low area is distributed in the south-east of Inner Mongolia, the central and western parts of the Songnen-Liaohe Plain and the large part of the Liaodong Peninsula. The drop in snow in these areas is less likely to form a snowstorm. In the past 53 years, the extreme nature of the weather has led to a high risk of a snowstorm in the entire region. (2) The Hulunber Plateau is the region with the highest snow disaster frequency and intensity in the northeast region. The region of Changbai Mountain is the second. The snow disaster in the two regions is frequent, the disaster is serious, the history and snow disaster risk is relatively high, the Songnen-Liaohe Plain and the Xiaoxing' an Mountain area are not prone to snow disasters, The risk of historical snow disaster is relatively low. (3) The region with the highest risk of the snow disaster is the Hulunber Plateau, especially the grassland and pastoral area; the higher area is in the southeast of the northeast, including the south of Heilongjiang, the south-central of Jilin, the north-east of Liaoning and the like; and there are two areas with the lowest risk. The area of the Songnen Plain and the western part of Liaoning are the core of the white city of Jilin, respectively. (4) The exposure, sensitivity and disaster response capacity of the comprehensive disaster-bearing body are the highest, including the south-west of Heilongjiang, the central part of Jilin and the north of Liaoning and the southern part of the peninsula, which are densely populated and economically developed. The exposure, sensitivity and disaster relief ability of the disaster-bearing body are both high; the population is scarce and the economy is backward due to the exposure of the disaster-bearing body, the sensitivity and the disaster relief ability are low, and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is the lowest due to the exposure, the sensitivity and the disaster relief ability of the disaster-bearing body. (5) The regions with high risk of snow disaster include the Hulunber Plateau, the south of Heilongjiang, the south-east of Jilin and the north of Liaoning. The region with higher risk is distributed around the high-risk area, and is distributed in the south-east and the western part of the Northeast. The region is far greater than the very high-risk area; the region with low risk (lower and very low) is distributed in the mountainous area of the northern part of the northeast, the east of the Daxing 'an Mountains and the west of the Songnen-Liaohe Plain, especially in the Daxing' an Ling area, The risk of snow disaster in the border area of the three provinces and the west of Liaoning and the western part of Liaoning province is the lowest. (6) The disaster prevention and control of the Northeast China includes the meteorological forecast, the early warning and the emergency management of the snow disaster, the input of the disaster prevention and reduction of the snow disaster, the awareness of disaster prevention and self-help of the whole people, and the establishment and establishment of the comprehensive insurance system of the snow disaster. In addition, different areas should also focus on the planning arrangements for their actual situations.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P429

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