内蒙古自治区碳排放峰值预测及综合控制策略研究

发布时间：2018-12-16 14:10

【摘要】：众所周知,近三四十年来,温室气体排放加剧,全球范围内气候变暖已经成为影响人类可未来持续发展的重要因素。从2011年起,我国政府多次对外界发文公布我国碳排放控制目标,表明了我国政府解决温室气体排放问题,坚决走节能减排、低碳可持续发展的道路的决心。内蒙古作为中国实行少数民族区域自治的地方,地处祖国北部边疆,自然资源丰富。作为国家能源战略基地和能源生产消费大省,既要保证为全国以及内蒙古的经济快速发展提供重要的能源保障,又要实现经济发展与环境、生态保护同时并行,对内蒙古来讲,任重道远。因此,本文拟通过研究预测内蒙古二氧化碳排放峰值,提出控制内蒙古温室气体排放政策体系,为内蒙古社会的可持续发展提供数据支撑和政策参考。本文首先概述气候变化、可持续发展、低碳经济、研究模型等学术理论的基础,然后简要的介绍了内蒙古经济、社会与二氧化碳排放现状,随后运用完美迪氏对数指数模型(LMDI)模型,找到并分析影响内蒙古二氧化碳排放的各种不同因素,进而结合内蒙古实际情况,运用情景分析法(Scenario Analysis)设置中速-基准情景等4种情景模式,运用模型来预测内蒙古2020到2050年期间的碳排放峰值量和时间,然后对各个影响因素的碳排放贡献进行详细分析,探讨它们的变化对内蒙古碳排放的影响,最后提出降低内蒙古二氧化碳排放量的控制策略。论文研究表明,未来内蒙古二氧化碳排放量受经济、碳排放强度、产业结构等因素的影响,在不同情景下二氧化碳排放情况各有不同。在假设的低碳情景,二氧化碳排放量和峰值时间都较小,分别为2025年左右和5.44亿吨;在节能情景下,碳排放峰值时间和峰值量分别为,2030年左右,5.63亿吨;在基准情形之下,内蒙古的碳排放峰值时间是2035年左右,峰值量为6.97亿吨;最后一种高耗能情景下,峰值量约为9.57亿吨。从影响碳排放的因素来看,人均GDP、碳排放强度、第二产业占比是影响内蒙古碳排放峰值时间和峰值量的主要因素。应当在考虑政策策略时,特别考虑经济发展规划,节能减排政策和电力、煤化工两个高耗能产业未来的发展战略的制定。其次落实各项低碳技术的快速研发与应用、促进煤炭就地转化,提升其工业附加价值,也是内蒙古二氧化碳减排的主要政策研究范围。
[Abstract]:As we all know, in recent 30 or 40 years, greenhouse gas emissions have increased, and global warming has become an important factor affecting the sustainable development of mankind in the future. Since 2011, our government has issued many documents to the outside world to announce our country's carbon emission control target, which indicates our government's determination to solve the problem of greenhouse gas emissions, resolutely take the path of energy saving and emission reduction, and the road of low carbon sustainable development. Inner Mongolia, as a region where ethnic minorities are autonomous, is located on the northern border of the motherland and is rich in natural resources. As a national energy strategic base and a large province of energy production and consumption, we should not only guarantee the important energy security for the rapid economic development of the whole country and Inner Mongolia, but also realize economic development and environment and ecological protection at the same time. For Inner Mongolia, take a heavy burden and embark on a long road Therefore, this paper proposes a policy system to control the greenhouse gas emissions in Inner Mongolia by studying and forecasting the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia, so as to provide data support and policy reference for the sustainable development of Inner Mongolia society. This paper first summarizes the basic theories of climate change, sustainable development, low-carbon economy, research model and so on, and then briefly introduces the economic, social and carbon dioxide emission status of Inner Mongolia. Then, using the perfect Dee logarithmic index model (LMDI) model, we find and analyze the different factors that affect the carbon dioxide emission in Inner Mongolia, and then combine the actual situation of Inner Mongolia. Using scenario analysis method (Scenario Analysis) to set up four scenario models, such as medium speed and benchmark scenario, the model is used to predict the peak amount and time of carbon emission from 2020 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia, and then the contribution of each influencing factor to carbon emission is analyzed in detail. The effects of their changes on the carbon emissions of Inner Mongolia are discussed. Finally, the control strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia are put forward. The paper shows that the future carbon dioxide emissions in Inner Mongolia are affected by the factors such as economy, intensity of carbon emissions, industrial structure and so on, and the situation of carbon dioxide emissions is different in different scenarios. In the hypothetical low carbon scenario, the carbon dioxide emission and peak time are smaller, about 2025 and 544 million tons, respectively, in the energy saving scenario, the peak time and peak value of carbon emission are about 2030 and 563 million tons, respectively. The peak time of carbon emission in Inner Mongolia is about 697 million tons in 2035 and the peak value in the last high-energy consumption scenario is about 957 million tons. From the point of view of the factors affecting carbon emissions, the intensity of GDP, carbon emissions per capita and the proportion of secondary industries are the main factors that affect the peak time and amount of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia. When considering the policy strategy, we should consider the economic development plan, the policy of energy saving and emission reduction and the formulation of the future development strategy of the two energy-consuming industries: electricity and coal chemical industry. Secondly, implementing the rapid research and development and application of various low-carbon technologies, promoting the local transformation of coal, enhancing its industrial added value, is also the main policy research area of carbon dioxide emission reduction in Inner Mongolia.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X321

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