秦岭地区濒危物种对气候变化的响应及脆弱性评估

发布时间：2018-09-14 08:46

【摘要】：全球气候变化对生物多样性产生了很大的影响。大量观测事实表明,气候变暖对物种地理分布、种群动态、物候特征(产卵期、迁徙期、迁徙距离等)、进化等方面产生深刻影响,且这些影响在未来将会变得更加剧烈。如果气候变暖的趋势得不到有效的遏制,温度升高2℃(升高2℃被联合国气候变化公约组织(UFCCC)定义为“危险”温度),全球将有15%-35%物种灭绝,这无疑将会给生物多样性的保护带来严峻挑战。尽管气候变化对生物灭绝程度和速度的预测存在一定的争议,但气候变暖加速生物灭绝的现状和趋势已经被广泛证实。目前,在全球气候变化背景下,如何制定有效的生物多样性保护对策,已成为政府、生态学家和民众普遍关注的热点问题。本研究通过红外相机调查技术监测研究区域濒危物种活动节律和模型模拟气候变化对濒危物种的影响,拟解决以下几个科学问题:(1)濒危物种如何调整自身行为来适应其生存的周围环境条件变化,从而形成某种时间分配以及行为节律模式;(2)评估气候变化背景下秦岭地区大熊猫脆弱性,为大熊猫适应气候变化保护对策的制定提供科学依据;(3)气候变化背景下秦岭地区主要濒危物种分布格局变化,评估当前已建立的自然保护区面对未来气候变化的保护成效性。主要结论如下:(1)大熊猫春季拍摄率明显高于其它季节,3月份拍摄率最高;大熊猫每日活动高峰期出现在下午14:00-20:00,低谷出现在20:00-02:00,白天活动概率为55.43%,夜间为44.67%;春季大熊猫活高峰期的环境温度(8.28±7.61℃)要显著(Z=-2.48,P=0.013)高于活动低谷期(20:00-24:00;00:00-12:00)的环境温度(3.97±6.91℃);大熊猫活动主要在1 400-2 000m的中等海拔区间。春季大熊猫50%活动范围面积为66.79 km2,而冬季50%活动面积仅22.85 km2。(2)羚牛年活动具有2个明显的高峰期,出现在4月和11月,活动低谷出现在1月;羚牛日活动具有明显的晨昏活动习性,分别出现在上午06:00-10:00和下午16:00-18:00;红外相机拍摄到羚牛活动时记录到的平均环境温度表明,羚牛生活在-2.08±5.00℃到17.43±4.76℃之间;羚牛具有季节性垂直迁移的习性,每年4-6月和10-12月具有两次往上迁移现象,即春夏季迁移和秋冬季迁移,最低海拔1 055m,最高海拔2 927m,年平均海拔1 977.31±353.90 m;羚牛季节间活动范围差异显著,冬季活动范围最大(50%K,151.92km2)、春季(50%K,116.41km2)和秋季(50%K,102.31km2)次之、夏季活动范围面积最小(50%K,39.17km2)。(3)气候变化背景下秦岭地区大熊猫脆弱性结论:秦岭地区大熊猫适宜生境面积为4810km2;预测到2050年,预测秦岭地区大熊猫适宜生境面积为4 529km2;预测到2050s年,大熊猫适宜生境海拔将向更高海拔地区转移,转移约30m;在当前气候条件下,已建自然保护区覆盖61.73%适宜生境面积,尚有1 840.61km2的大熊猫适宜生境处于保护区之外;在2050s年气候条件下,保护区覆盖了59.23%适宜生境面积,尚有1 846.55km2的适宜生境未被保护;到2050s年,当前分布在城固、太白和洋县的987 km2大熊猫适宜生境将会成为生境脆弱区域,适宜生境约丧失20.52%。同时,基于本研究脆弱性评估结果,就未来大熊猫应对气候变化的保护工作提出以下几点建议:新建和调整自然保护区、建立生境迁移廊道、增强物种适应气候变化能力、加强大熊猫监测。(4)气候变化将导致秦岭地区4个濒危物种适宜分布面积均减少,川金丝猴适宜生境面积减少最多,减少了约51.22%;当前秦岭地区适宜生境较高的区域(大于或小于3个物种)总面积为4 662km2,约占秦岭地区总面积的7.89%,到2050s适宜生境较高的区域面积将大幅减少,总面积为2 453km2,约占研究区域总面积的4.15%;未来气候变化将增加当前秦岭地区濒危物种分布区域外围适宜生境的风险;已建立的自然保护区体系保护了4 037.42km2的适宜生境,约占濒危物种适宜生境总面积48.58%,到2050s年,已建立的自然保护区体系保护了3 186.65km2的适宜生境,约占濒危物种适宜生境总面积52.54%。同时,提出5个保护空缺区域,可成为秦岭地区建设新自然保护区的备选区域,以便完善整个秦岭保护体系。
[Abstract]:A large number of observations have shown that climate warming has a profound impact on species geographic distribution, population dynamics, phenological characteristics (spawning, migration, migration distance, etc.) and evolution, and these effects will become more intense in the future. By effectively curbing the temperature rise by 2 degrees Celsius, defined by the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UFCCC) as a "dangerous" temperature, 15% to 35% of species will be extinct globally, which will undoubtedly pose a serious challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. The current situation and trend of accelerated extinction by warming have been widely confirmed. At present, how to formulate effective biodiversity conservation strategies under the background of global climate change has become a hot issue for governments, ecologists and the public. And the model simulates the impact of climate change on endangered species to solve the following scientific problems: (1) how the endangered species adjust their behavior to adapt to the changes of environmental conditions around their survival, thus forming a certain pattern of time allocation and behavior rhythm; (2) assess the vulnerability of giant pandas in the Qinling Mountains under the background of climate change, for giant pandas. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The shooting rate of giant pandas in spring is significantly higher than that in other seasons, and it was taken in March. The daily activity peak of giant pandas appeared at 14:00-20:00 p.m., the low point appeared at 20:00-02:00 p.m., the activity probability in the daytime was 55.43%, and the activity probability in the night was 44.67%; the environmental temperature in the peak of giant pandas in spring (8.28 7.61) was significantly higher than that in the valley (20:00-24:00; 00:00-12:00) (3.97.91). The activity of giant pandas is mainly in the middle altitude range of 1 400-2 000 M. In spring, 50% of the activity area of giant pandas is 66.79 km 2, while in winter, 50% of the activity area is only 22.85 km 2. (2) The annual activity of antelope has two distinct peaks, occurring in April and November, and the activity trough occurs in January; the daily activity of antelope has obvious morning and evening activity habits, respectively. Now it is 06:00-10:00 a.m. and 16:00-18:00 p.m. The average environmental temperature recorded by infrared cameras during antelope activity shows that the antelope lives between - 2.08 [5.00] C and 17.43 [4.76]C. The antelope has the habit of seasonal vertical migration, and migrates upwards twice a year from April to June and October to December, i.e. in spring and summer and in autumn and winter. The lowest elevation was 1 055m, the highest elevation was 2 927m, and the annual average elevation was 1 977.31 (+ 353.90 m). The seasonal range of activity of takin was significantly different, with the largest range of activity in winter (50% K, 151.92 km 2), followed by spring (50% K, 116.41 km 2) and autumn (50% K, 102.31 km 2), and the smallest range of activity in summer (50% K, 39.17 km 2). (3) Under the background of climate change, the Qinling region was large. Conclusion: The suitable habitat area for giant pandas in Qinling is 4810 km 2, the suitable habitat area for giant pandas in Qinling is 4 529 km 2 by 2050, the suitable habitat elevation for giant pandas will be shifted to higher altitude by 2050, and the suitable habitat coverage for giant pandas will be 61.73% under current climate conditions. Habitat area, there are still 1840.61 km 2 suitable habitat for giant pandas outside the protected area; in 2050s climate conditions, the protected area covered 59.23% of the suitable habitat area, there are still 1 846.55 km 2 suitable habitat is not protected; by 2050s, the current distribution in Chenggu, Taibai and Yangxian 987 km 2 suitable habitat for giant pandas will become habitat fragile area. At the same time, based on the results of vulnerability assessment, the following suggestions are put forward for the future protection of giant pandas against climate change: to build and adjust nature reserves, to establish habitat migration corridors, to enhance the adaptability of species to climate change, and to strengthen the monitoring of giant pandas. (4) Climate change will lead to the Qinling Mountains. The suitable habitat area of the four endangered species in the Qinling Mountains was reduced by 51.22%, and the total area of the areas with higher habitat suitability (greater than or less than 3 species) was 4 662 km 2, accounting for 7.89% of the total area of the Qinling Mountains, and the area with higher habitat suitability would be greatly reduced by 2050 S. The total area is 2 453 km 2, accounting for 4.15% of the total area of the study area; future climate change will increase the risk of habitat suitability in the periphery of the current distribution area of endangered species in the Qinling Mountains; the established nature reserve system protects the habitat suitability of 4 037.42 km 2, accounting for 48.58% of the total habitat suitability of endangered species, and by 2050 s, the established natural environment will be protected. The reserve system protects the suitable habitats of 3186.65 km 2, accounting for 52.54% of the total suitable habitats of endangered species. Meanwhile, five protection vacancies are proposed, which can be used as alternative zones for the construction of new nature reserves in the Qinling Mountains, so as to improve the protection system of the whole Qinling Mountains.
【学位授予单位】：中国林业科学研究院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：Q958.1

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