中国对外直接投资对母国能源消费影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-26 19:31

  本文关键词：中国对外直接投资对母国能源消费影响研究　出处：《中国矿业大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 对外直接投资 能源消费 资源寻求 逆向技术溢出 吸收能力

【摘要】：按照国家发展规划,到“十三五”末国内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番,这意味着为实现全面建设小康社会的目标,“十三五”时期年均经济增速不低于6.5%。与此同时,国内经济发展进入新常态时期,进入由重速度向重质量和效益、由重数量向重结构调整和转型的关键发展阶段,然而经济的稳增长与结构性调整都需要充足的高品质资源环境配套,但当前我国能源市场供需失衡愈发严重,为了突破资源约束,同时为了提高能源利用效率,就要充分利用“两种资源、两个市场”,实现互利共赢、共同发展。供给侧结构性改革使得国内要素比较优势也随之发生变化,加之对外贸易与投资格局不断演变,尤其是当前“一带一路”建设、国际产能合作背景下,国内企业走出去内生动力逐步增强。本文主要探究对外直接投资对我国能源消费的作用机制及影响效应两方面问题,具体研究内容如下:(1)首先分析当前能源消费现状存在消费总量高、能源供需缺口扩大、消费结构偏高碳化、消费效率较低的问题,使能源消费对经济增长的约束日益严峻。然后梳理我国对外直接投资发展历程,结合对外投资行业选择、区位分布等不同角度,对当前境外投资发展状态及未来趋势进行客观评价,指出国内企业将“两个市场、两种资源”为我所用,将为国内能源发展提供新的可能性。(2)研究作用机制方面,首先从两个角度探究直接作用机制:鉴于各类对外投资企业海外经营可直接利用当地资源,基于能源供求机制,从投资行业视角和国内能源价格视角分析对外直接投资对母国能源消费的直接供求作用;然后鉴于能源类企业可直接投资资源禀赋丰裕国而获得能源资源,通过异质性成本-固定市场进入成本模型探究对外投资的资源偏好倾向。之后分别基于经济增长、产业升级、进出口贸易和技术进步四类传导变量解析了外直接投资对能源消费的间接作用机制。(3)由于对外直接投资会对母国能源消费产生复杂影响,在实证内容方面将重点探究其对能源消费总量、结构、效率的具体影响效应。首先研究对外直接投资对能源消费总量的影响效果,运用VAR模型结合因果分析发现对外直接投资对国内能源消费变化更加敏感,对外直接投资将伴随国内能源消费同向涨落。继而运用引力模型和资源缺口模型验证了我国存在资源寻求倾向,并且对外直接投资可有效弥补国内资源短缺。最后基于宏观角度构建Tapio脱钩分解模型,发现两者整体存在弱脱钩关系。(4)然后探究对外直接投资对母国能源消费结构的影响效应。运用结构方程模型,提出研究假设,构建能源消费结构、对外直接投资、产业结构、经济增长潜变量、内部可测变量以及潜变量和可测变量间的结构关系,进行路径拟合分析,发现无论是直接路径还是间接路径,对外直接投资均负向作用于国内能源消费,其中煤炭消费降幅最大,其次是石油消费,说明我国对外直接投资有利于节约国内能源资源并优化能源消费结构。(5)最后从发展中国家对外直接投资存在技术寻求动机的角度出发,定量分析对外直接投资逆向技术溢出与能源消费效率之间的关系,并就母国逆向技术吸收能力以及区域化逆向技术差异对能源效率的调节作用进行系统测算,发现逆向技术溢出每提高1个百分点,能源消费效率将提升0.051个百分点。然而,无论是全国样本还是分区域样本,在考虑吸收能力情况下的逆向技术溢出节能效应均较为微弱亦或阻碍能效提升,并且区域范围差异也呈现出不确定性技术吸收效果,说明当前我国技术吸收能力较为薄弱,未来要注重缩小同发达国家技术差距。
[Abstract]:According to the national development plan, to the "13th Five-Year" at the end of GDP and per capita income more than doubled in 2010, which means that to achieve the goal of building a well-off society, "13th Five-Year" period average annual economic growth rate of not less than 6.5%. At the same time, the domestic economic development has entered a new normal period, entered by the speed to quality and efficiency, the key stage of development from quantity to structural adjustment and transformation, but steady economic growth and structural adjustment will need plenty of high-quality resources supporting environment, but the current imbalance between supply and demand of China's energy market has become more and more serious, in order to break through the resource constraints, and in order to improve the efficiency of energy utilization, it should make full use of "two resources and two markets", to achieve mutual benefit and common development. The supply side structural reform makes the domestic factors of comparative advantage are changed, and the foreign trade and investment patterns of continuous evolution, especially the "The Belt and Road" construction, international cooperation capacity under the background, the domestic enterprises to enhance endogenous power gradually out of the. This paper mainly explores the effect of foreign direct investment mechanism and the impact on China's energy consumption in two aspects, the specific contents are as follows: (1) the first analysis of the current consumption, high expansion, energy supply and demand gap of consumption structure, high efficiency of carbide consumption problem of low energy consumption status, the energy consumption of the increasingly serious economic growth restriction. Then combing the development process of China's foreign direct investment, combined with different angles of foreign investment industry selection, location distribution, the objective evaluation of the current status and future trend of the development of overseas investment, pointed out that the domestic enterprises will be "two markets and two resources" it will provide new possibilities for the development of domestic energy. (2) study mechanism, first from two perspectives to explore the direct mechanism: in view of overseas operation of foreign investment enterprises of various types of direct use of local resources, energy supply and demand mechanism based on supply and demand analysis of direct effect of foreign direct investment on home energy consumption from the investment perspective and the domestic energy prices and energy perspective; in view of enterprise direct investment in natural resources and abundant country access to energy resources, through the study on the foreign investment into the cost model of heterogeneous cost - fixed market resources preference. Then, based on the four conduction variables of economic growth, industrial upgrading, import and export trade and technological progress, the indirect mechanism of external direct investment on energy consumption is analyzed. (3) due to the complex impact of foreign direct investment on the energy consumption of the home country, we will focus on the specific impact of energy consumption on total energy consumption, structure and efficiency in empirical content. First, we study the effect of foreign direct investment on total energy consumption. Using VAR model and causal analysis, we find that outward direct investment is more sensitive to domestic energy consumption and foreign direct investment will be accompanied by domestic energy consumption in the same direction. Then the gravity model and resource gap model have been used to verify the tendency of resource seeking in China, and foreign direct investment can effectively make up for the shortage of domestic resources. Finally, the Tapio decoupling decomposition model is constructed on the basis of macro angle, and the weak decoupling relationship is found in the two. (4) then explore the impact of FDI on the energy consumption structure of the home country. By using the structural equation model, put forward the research hypothesis, building energy consumption structure, foreign direct investment, industrial structure, economic growth, internal latent variables, measurable variables and latent variables and measurable structure relation between variables, path fitting analysis, it is found that the direct path and indirect path of foreign direct investment have negative effect in the domestic energy consumption, coal consumption fell the most, followed by oil consumption, shows that China's foreign direct investment is conducive to saving domestic energy resources and optimize energy consumption structure. (5) from the angle of foreign direct investment in developing countries are seeking motivation of technology, quantitative analysis of the relationship between foreign direct investment and reverse technology spillover efficiency of energy consumption, and the reverse technology absorptive capacity and home area measurement system to regulate the energy efficiency of reverse technology differences, found that each increase of 1 percentage points in reverse technology spillover efficiency, energy consumption will increase by 0.051 percentage points. However, regardless of the national or regional sample sample, considering the effect of reverse technology spillover energy absorption capability in the case are relatively weak or hinder the efficiency, and regional differences also show the uncertainty of technology absorption effect, indicating that the current technology absorption capacity is weak, the future should pay attention to narrow the technology in developed countries the gap.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6
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本文编号：1338564