撒哈拉以南非洲国家金融发展对经济增长影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 00:12

  本文关键词：撒哈拉以南非洲国家金融发展对经济增长影响研究　出处：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 金融发展 人力资本 经济增长 腐败 金融改革 撒哈拉以南非洲地区

【摘要】：大多数撒哈拉以南的非洲国家在20世纪70年代到21世纪初这段时间内都表现出金融发展疲软。因为人力资本和有形资本积累的严重不足,导致该区域可用于金融行业发展的资源受到极大的约束,这种现象持续给该区域的金融稳定性和经济增长造成负面的影响。鉴于金融与经济增长的相关性,本研究根据可收集到的这些国家的人力资本开发、腐败环境、和金融改革进程等数据,探讨了在包含32个国家的撒哈拉以南的非洲地区,金融发展对经济增长的影响。。该研究进一步将这些国家分为四类,即:中非国家经济共同体,南部非洲发展共同体,西非国家经济共同体和东非国家。1985年~2012年的广泛资金(M2)、中等流动性金融负债水平(M3)、银行私营信贷(CPB)、人力资本(H)、实物资本(K)、国民储蓄(GNS)、人口增长率(PGR)和每年的GDP增长等有关金融增长的指标的数据,是来自国际金融统计数据(IFS),世界发展指标(WDI)和世界银行(WB)。在估计过程中,统计概述、相关性、固定效应面板模型、随机效应面板模型和动态模型估计均得到了应用。为了确定时间序列的数据属性,Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF)和Philip-Perron检验也将得到体现。结果汇总统计数据表明,在撒哈拉以南非洲国家的样本中,非洲西部国家的私人部门的信贷供应与其他地区国家形成了鲜明对比。这可能表明了这样的一个现象,即大量信贷集中到公共部门,私营部门投资在开发过程中受到排挤。这也说明了撒哈拉以南西部地区金融欠发达的根本原因。结果还表明了国民储蓄具有疲软性,这可能意味着高比例的收入被花费在消费上而不是被花费在为了生产性投资的储蓄上,因此这也长时间给该地区的经济增长带来负面影响。相关矩阵的结果进一步表明:虽然不明显,但是GDP增长和所有的独立变量之间都存在正相关关系。整个样本中,撒哈以南的非洲国家的整体样本以及四个不同地区分类的组别样本均说明了这一结果。然而,在中非国家经济共同体的数据中,物质资本投资(K)与GDP增长有较强的正相关关系(0.626)。结果进一步揭示了,撒哈以南的非洲国家的样本没有明显的多重共线性,不同地区分类的组别数据相关解释变量之间的相关性也并不显著,结果的值为0.7(70%)。根据动态面板增长回归,在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,金融因素和人力资本对经济增长均有影响。在我们划分的四个区域中,其中一个表现出金融因素对经济增长影响显著,其他三个则相反。金融发展指数与人力资本提升的交互项和金融发展指数对经济发展的影响均为正向且有效。根据对从撒哈拉以南非洲国家抽出的8个样本国家的数据进行的分析,我们可以进一步得到腐败和通货膨胀对经济增长有负作用。代表金融改革进程的变量虽然在等方程中显示为与被解释变量成正相关关系,但是这一正相关关系并不明显。这说明了研究中我们所观察的较高的通货膨胀率可能暗示了宏观经济的不稳定,而这种不稳定又降低了金融改革的效率。因此,高通货膨胀和经济增长的负相关关系导致了金融部门改革的低效率,并进一步引发了宏观经济不稳定和金融改革测序的不正确。这个结果并不令人惊讶,因为许多研究表明,金融改革只有在一个国家的宏观经济环境是健全合理的改革时期才能诱发有效的增长。以通货膨胀率高为特点的不稳定的宏观经济环境,可能通常不利于金融改革的效率,因此会阻碍增长过程。除了宏观经济稳定,适当地对金融改革测序也是一种有效的诱导增长的改革方案。根据上面的分析,在宏观经济环境不稳定或没有对金融改革合理测序的国家,金融改革的影响是积极的,但也会使得经济增长疲软。腐败和GDP增长之间存在负相关关系,这表明严重的腐败将减少产出的增长,这并不奇怪,许多撒哈拉以南非洲国家经济增长的疲软可能正是由于该地区的腐败水平较高。此外,腐败可能会对实物资本和人力资本产生负面影响,使其质量降低。因此,非洲各国政府应该努力达到良好的宏观经济环境,减少腐败,为增加就业创造有利环境,以确保良好的经济增长和减贫。对该地区施行的政策的含义是,如果地区拥有健全的金融业基础设施,那么应该强调发展政策;在储蓄低下的经济中,实际部门与金融部门之间往往存在着负相关关系,因此,非洲国家应该努力获得良好的、健全的的宏观经济和金融稳定性。有固定数据的一阶差分作为证据,这意味着回归过程真实可靠。根据所得到的相关系数和R方值,稳健性检验的结果说明了研究中所用的工具变量适用于回归过程,并决定了模型可以在何种程度上被解释。研究的主要不足是能获取的数据十分有限,因此,实际应用的变量数量少于预期,使得整个分析过程也受到了受限。然而,有限却合理的数据仍可用于达到本研究的目的。虽然有这样的限制,但是本研究通过提供撒哈以南的非洲国家的金融关系、人力资本和经济增长的计量结果和解释,仍能为当前其他一些文献做出一定的贡献。同时,这种结果和解释对于学者、政策制定者和开发组织在塑造撒哈拉以南地区非洲国家,乃至全世界未来金融业的基础设施、人力资本和经济增长,都有着至关重要的作用。
[Abstract]:Most countries in sub Saharan Africa in 1970s to early twenty-first Century this period showed weak financial development. Because of the serious shortage of human capital and physical capital accumulation, resulting in the region can be used for the development of financial industry resources have been greatly constrained, this kind of phenomenon continues to the regional financial stability and economic growth have a negative the influence of correlation. In view of financial and economic growth, according to the study of human capital development, these countries can be gleaned from the corruption and financial environment, the reform process of the data, discusses the 32 countries in the sub Saharan Africa, influence of financial development on economic growth. The further study of these the country is divided into four categories, namely: the economic community of Central African States, the southern African development community, the economic community of West African States and East African countries.1985 years ~ 2012 Broad money (M2), moderate liquidity of financial liabilities (M3), private credit bank (CPB), human capital (H), physical capital (K), national savings (GNS), the population growth rate (PGR) of the financial growth index and annual GDP growth data from international financial statistics (IFS), world development indicators (WDI) and World Bank (WB). In the process of estimation, summary statistics, correlation, fixed effect panel data model, random effects model and dynamic panel model estimation are applied. In order to determine the time attribute data sequence, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and the Philip-Perron test will also be reflected. The summary statistics show that in sub Saharan African countries in the sample, the West African country's private sector credit supply and other parts of the country to form a clear contrast. This may indicate that such a phenomenon, that is a lot of letters The loan to the public sector, private sector investment is being squeezed in the development process. It also shows that the south western region of the Sahara financial basic reason for the underdevelopment. The results also show that the national savings is weak, this may mean a high proportion of income is spent on consumption rather than spending in order to productive investment the savings, so this is a long time for the region's economic growth brings negative effect. The correlation matrix results further show that: although not obvious, but there is a positive correlation between GDP growth and all independent variables. The whole sample, the whole sample classification to sa African countries south and four different the group sample illustrates this result. However, in the economic community of Central African States in the data, the material capital investment and the growth of GDP (K) have strong positive correlation (0.626) results. Further revealed, sub Saharan African countries in the sample had no obvious multicollinearity, correlation between different area classification groups data related to explanatory variables is not significant, the value of 0.7 (70%). According to the dynamic panel growth regressions in sub Saharan Africa, the impact of financial factors and human capital of economic growth in four regions. We have divided, one of which showed the financial factors significantly influence on economic growth, the other three are opposite. The impact of the financial development index and the human capital to enhance the interaction and financial development index on economic development is positive and effective. According to the analysis from the Sahara 8 a sample of countries in South African countries out of the data, we can further obtain corruption and inflation has a negative effect on economic growth. The variable represents the process of financial reform is However, shown as explanatory variables are positively correlated in the equation, but this positive correlation is not obvious. This shows that the higher we observe in the study of the inflation rate may imply that macroeconomic instability, but the instability and inefficiency of financial reform. Therefore, negative correlation high inflation and economic growth leads to low efficiency of financial sector reform, and further lead to macroeconomic instability and financial reform was not correct. This result is not surprising, because many studies show that financial reform only in a country's macroeconomic environment is increasing effective reform period to induce sound high. For the characteristics of the unstable macroeconomic environment to the rate of inflation, may often not conducive to efficiency of financial reform, thus hinder the growth process. In addition to the macro Economic stability, suitable for financial reform is also a kind of growth induced by sequencing the effective reform program. According to the above analysis, in the macroeconomic environment is not stable or not on financial reform and reasonable sequencing of the country, the impact of financial reform is positive, but also makes economic growth weak. There is a negative correlation between corruption and GDP growth, which indicates that the serious corruption will reduce the growth of output, it is not surprising that many sub Saharan African countries south of the weak economic growth is likely due to corruption in the region of high level. In addition, corruption may have a negative impact on the physical and human capital, the quality is reduced. Therefore, African countries the government should strive to achieve a favorable macroeconomic environment, reduce corruption, to create a favorable environment to increase employment, to ensure good economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. The implementation of the policy. The implication is that if the financial industry area has a sound infrastructure, it should emphasize the development of policy; in low economic savings, between the real sector and financial sector there is a negative correlation, therefore, African countries should try to get a good, sound macroeconomic and financial stability. There is a fixed order data the difference as evidence, which means that the regression process is reliable. According to the obtained correlation coefficient and R value, and the result shows that the robustness test used in the study of instrumental variables for regression process, and the decision model can be explained to what extent. The main issue is very limited, can be obtained the data therefore, the practical application of the number of variables is less than the expected, which makes the whole analysis process has also been limited. However, the limited data is reasonable can be used to achieve the purpose of this study is. This limit, but to provide sub Saharan African countries financial relations through this research, human capital and economic growth of the measurement results and interpretation, is still able to present some other literature and make some contribution. At the same time, the results and interpretation for scholars, policy makers and development organizations in shaping the sub Saharan region African countries, infrastructure and the world in the future financial sector, human capital and economic growth, plays an important role.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F834;F14
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本文编号：1357175