中英贸易与中国经济发展的关系研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 12:24

本文关键词：中英贸易与中国经济发展的关系研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,中英两国高层交往频密,2013年英国首相卡梅伦访华、2014年李克强总理访英以及2015年习近平总书记访英均为中英两国贸易发展提供了有利条件。并且随着中国贸易多元化政策的稳步推进,中英贸易在中国对外贸易中逐渐占据着越来越重要的地位。2015年,英国成为中国在欧盟内第二大贸易伙伴国,中英贸易进入历史发展的“黄金时代”。在中英贸易期间,中英贸易对中国的经济发展造成了深远影响,同时中国经济的发展又对中英两国贸易起着一定的促进作用。本文以中英贸易的发展历程为主线,对1760年至今的中英贸易背景、规模、结构、政策的变动进行了分析,研究了各时期中英贸易对中国经济增长、产业结构及科技进步的影响。本文的研究工作与主要结论如下:(1)鸦片战争之前,中国的丝、茶贸易中国赢得出超的贸易地位,中国丝、茶产业迅猛发展。为限制英国对华出口鸦片,中国采用了一口通商的贸易政策。鸦片战争之后,中国的贸易港口被强行打开,中国在中英贸易中处于劣势地位。建国后,受到来自国内外政治因素的影响,中英贸易额一直在低水平徘徊,中英主要是通过香港进行贸易。改革开放后,中国促进贸易发展和改善进出口贸易结构,中英贸易进程步入正常化轨道。1998年中英建立全面合作伙伴关系,中英关系得到改善,中英贸易迅猛发展。(2)运用VAR分析、格兰杰因果检验及多元回归分析的方法,研究了中英贸易进程中,双边贸易额对中国经济增长、产业结构和技术进步之间的内在联系。实证结果显示:第一,中英贸易与中国经济增长有正向的影响关系,两者能相互促进。第二,中英贸易有助于推动中国产业结构的调整和优化,对第二产业和第三产业的发展尤其明显。第三,中英贸易能有效推动中国的技术进步。(3)依据中、英双方作为贸易合作主体的利益联结关系入手,采取静态博弈与动态博弈相结合的方式对两者的博弈过程进行分析,寻找中英两国外贸博弈的利益均衡点。针对中英双边贸易单次博弈、重复博弈及双赢博弈过程进行了分析,说明中英两国进行长期的可持续性双边贸易是博弈结果的必然选择;从中英贸易多维博弈过程进行分析,分别从政治、军事、经济、国家内部经济发展四个维度的策略集进行策略选择,并确定了两者之间的博弈精炼Nash均衡。(4)结合中英贸易的历史沿革特征及与中国经济的关系,分别提出了中英贸易可持续化发展的策略及相应的保障措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent high-level exchanges between the two countries in 2013, British Prime Minister Cameron's visit to China in 2014, Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Britain in 2015, the general secretary Xi Jinping's visit to Britain to provide favorable conditions for the Sino British Trade and development. With the steady progress China trade diversification policy, the Sino British trade in foreign trade Chinese gradually occupy more and more the important position of.2015 years, Britain became the second China within the EU trade partner of China. The Sino British trade in the history of the development of the "golden age". During the Sino British Trade and economic trade between China and Britain to Chinese development has caused far-reaching effects, and development of economy and Chinese for Sino British trade plays a certain role. This article reviews the development of Sino British trade as the main line, since the 1760 Sino British trade background, scale, structure, policy changes are analyzed, studied in each period The British Chinese trade on economic growth, industrial structure and the progress of science and technology. The research work and the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) before the Opium War, Chinese silk, tea trade surplus China win trade status, Chinese silk, tea industry rapid development. For the limitation of British export to China with a Chinese opium. Trade trade policy. After the Opium War, Chinese trading port forced open, China at a disadvantage in the Sino British trade. After the founding of the PRC, affected by domestic and international political factors, bilateral trade has been hovering at a low level, the main is to trade through Hongkong. After the reform and opening up, China promote the development of the trade and improve the structure of import and export trade, Sino British trade process into the normal track of.1998 years of the establishment of Sino British comprehensive cooperative partnership, bilateral relations have improved, the rapid development of trade in Britain (2) by VAR. The analysis method, Grainger causality test and multiple regression analysis, the study of the Sino British trade process, the bilateral trade volume of Chinese economic growth, internal relations between industrial structure and technological progress. The empirical results show that: first, the Sino British trade has positive relationship with Chinese economic growth, they can promote each other. Second that helps to promote the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure China Sino British trade, the development of the second industry and the third industry is especially obvious. Third, the Sino British trade can effectively promote technological progress Chinese. (3) on the basis of the link between the interests, with English as the main body of trade cooperation, carries on the analysis to the static game with the combination of the dynamic game of the two game process, find the equilibrium point of interest in the British foreign trade game. For the Sino British bilateral trade single game, repeated game and double win game process The analysis shows that the Sino British bilateral trade sustainable long-term is the inevitable choice of the outcome of the game; from the analysis of the Sino British trade multidimensional game process, from the political, military, economic, national economic development within the four dimensions of strategy set of strategy selection, and determine the game between the refined Nash equilibrium. (4) combined with the characteristics of the history of Sino British Trade and economic relations with China, respectively put forward the sustainable development of the Sino British trade strategy and the corresponding security measures.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.9;F124

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