东亚区域产业结构演进与中国制造业产业升级

发布时间：2017-12-31 16:06

本文关键词：东亚区域产业结构演进与中国制造业产业升级　出处：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济全球化和区域化已成为世界经济发展的重要趋势与特征,当代产业结构的演进也由过去以自然资源与制造业为基础的国别演进,转变为以信息资源和现代服务业为基础的区域演进。区域产业结构演进在深化国际分工体系的同时,也影响着处于不同分工地位国家的产业升级效应。因此,产业结构的国际化问题已成为当今学术界关注的热点。随着日本经济的长期低迷与亚洲金融危机的爆发,东亚区域产业结构演进的“雁行形态”也日渐式微。特别是中国经济的崛起,不但重新构建了东亚区域的国际分工体系,也使区域产业结构的演进模式发生了本质的变化。因此,在新形势下,系统分析东亚区域产业结构演进的趋势与关联机制,把握东亚区域国际分工格局的变迁,正确认识东亚区域产业结构演进下中国制造业的产业升级效应,具有重要意义。本文基于产业结构、产业分工以及国际生产网络理论,利用投入产出方法与计量经济方法,探索东亚区域产业结构演进的趋势与基本关联机制,衡量东亚区域内贸易价值分配,勾勒东亚区域产业分工格局,揭示中国制造业在东亚区域产业结构演进中的升级效应,为中国制造业在经济发展新常态下产业结构调整与产业升级的战略选择提供参考。本文共分7章,具体结构安排与内容如下:第1章绪论。阐述了本文的研究背景与研究意义,对国内外关于区域产业结构演进与产业升级的相关研究进行了综述,介绍了本文的研究框架、研究内容、研究方法,并对文中所用数据作出说明。第2章相关理论概述。本章是全文分析的理论基础,分别阐述了产业结构、产业关联、产业分工以及国际生产网络等相关理论。第3章东亚区域产业结构演进的趋势分析。本章首先介绍了东亚各国和地区产业结构相对独立演进过程,比较了各国和地区产业结构演进的相似性与差异性。然后,分析了东亚区域产业结构整体演进的变化趋势,揭示了东亚区域产业结构相互关联、相互依存的整体演进规律。在此基础上,进一步分析了东亚区域产业结构整体演进的动因。最后,从贸易与投资两个方面对东亚区域产业结构演进的基本机制进行了实证分析,揭示了商品贸易与国际投资对东亚区域产业结构演进的促进作用。第4章东亚区域产业结构演进的关联性分析。本章从产业关联效应和产业波及效应两个方面,对东亚区域产业结构演进的关联性进行了动态分析与静态比较。首先,介绍了东亚区域产业关联的分析工具——亚洲国际投入产出表,并对2013年最新公布的亚洲国际投入产出表(2005)的简化形式与均衡关系加以说明。其次,利用亚洲国际投入产出表1995、2000和2005的数据,通过构建中间需求率和中间投入率的指标体系,分别从东亚整体与国别两个层面动态分析了区域产业结构的直接关联效应。研究结果表明,东亚各国和地区间产业结构的直接关联程度不断加深,日本在东亚区域产业结构演进中的作用依然较大,但趋势逐渐减弱,中国、马来西亚等发展中国家的作用在不断加强,东亚区域产业结构的演进不再仅仅局限于对发达国家的依赖,而逐渐趋于内生化和多元化。随后,从产业后向关联和最终需求的生产诱发两个角度,深入到产业内部,分析和比较了东亚区域的产业波及效应。结果显示,在东亚各国和地区间,中国产业的后向关联效应最大,对东亚区域产业发展的带动作用最明显;在各产业间,制造业的后向关联效应最大;在制造业内部资本与技术密集型制造业的关联效应增强。区域外美国和区域内日本等发达国家的最终需求对东亚区域的生产诱发效应较大,中国最终需求的诱发效应不断追赶美、日,但主要体现在内部的诱发;制造业是最终需求诱发程度最高的产业,其中,轻工业部门突出为内部的生产诱发,重工业部门突出为外部的生产诱发。第5章东亚区域产业结构演进与国际分工格局变迁。本章以国际分工为切入点,从贸易增加值角度进一步剖析东亚区域产业结构演进。首先,对产业结构国际化下的贸易价值分配机制进行说明,明确了贸易价值分配对国际分工地位与国际产业结构关联的影响。其次,利用结构分解技术,在亚洲国际投入产出表的数据体系下,将东亚区域内主要经济体的出口贸易价值分解为直接国内价值、再进口的国内价值、东亚价值和其他地区中间产品价值四个部分,并分别从整体和产业两个层面比较各经济体的出口贸易价值含量及来源。研究结果表明,东亚各经济体出口创造的国内价值含量普遍下降,转移的东亚价值不断上升。美国、日本仍占据出口贸易价值来源的主导地位,但其份额正逐渐下降,来自中国的中间产品价值含量在不断增加。服务业与制造业成为贸易价值转移的主要产业,服务业已形成区域共享,但制造业却呈现明显的层次分工,发达国家仍占据中、高技术制造业的价值转移,发展中国家仅占据中、低技术制造业的价值转移。随后,在出口贸易价值分解的基础上,借助垂直专业化系数指标,对东亚各经济体及其制造业在区域内的分工地位及变化趋势进行了测算。结果显示,日本仍占据东亚区域制造业国际分工体系的顶尖处,专业化于产品高附加值的生产环节;韩国、新加坡以及中国台湾等新兴工业化国家和地区,主要从事标准化的高附加值生产环节。马来西亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国等东盟四国,主要专业化于一般性中低附加值的生产环节。中国由于参与国际分工起步较晚,在本世纪初期,仅从事产品的加工、组装等低附加值生产环节,虽然近些年有所改善,但仍没有完全摆脱价值链低端的位置。最后,根据域内国际分工格局的变迁,指出在东亚区域有可能出现两极分化的发展趋势。第6章东亚区域产业结构演进下的中国制造业产业升级。本章基于国际生产网络的视角,利用中国投入产出表和联合国商品贸易数据库数据,对中国制造业在东亚区域产业结构演进下的产业升级效应进行了分析。首先,在明确适度融入和过度融入国际生产网络的基本内涵前提下,通过信任、信息传递与共同问题解决机制三个方面,阐明制造业融入国际生产网络对产业升级的影响机理。其次,利用中国投入产出表和联合国商品贸易数据库等相关数据,对中国制造业融入东亚生产网络的程度进行了测评,结果表明,2002年至2012年间,中国制造业融入东亚生产网络的程度经历了先上升后下降的起伏变化,制造业内部各行业的融入程度存在一定差异,劳动密集型行业较低,资本技术密集型行业较高。然后,利用相关指标和数据对中国制造业在2002年至2012年的产业间与产业内升级状况进行测度,结果显示,中国制造业的产业间升级与产业内升级在这一时期均有明显效果,主要表现为劳动密集型制造业比重大幅度下降,资本密集型与资本技术密集型制造业比重明显上升,大部分制造业的净附加值比率保持上升态势,并且多集中在资本密集型和资本技术密集型行业,实现了产业内由低附加值能力向高附加值能力的跃升。最后,引入计量模型,就融入东亚生产网络对中国制造业产业升级的影响进行了实证检验,回归结果表明,融入东亚生产网络对中国制造业产业间升级与整体内部升级均有显著的正向促进作用,但对不同要素密集型行业的内部升级效果存在明显差异,资本密集型与劳动密集型制造业显著,资本技术密集型制造业并不显著。第7章主要结论与对策建议。本章对全文进行了总结、归纳,并结合从主要结论获得的启示,对中国制造业产业升级提出了相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization and regional integration has become an important trend and characteristics of the development of the world economy, from the past to natural resources and manufacturing industry based on industrial structure evolution of contemporary country evolution, transformed into regional evolution in information resources and modern service industry as the foundation. The evolution of regional industry structure in the deepening of international division of labor system at the same time, also influence in different division status of national industrial upgrading effect. Therefore, the internationalization of the industrial structure has become the focus of academic attention. With the long-term downturn in the Japanese economy and the Asian financial crisis broke out, the evolution of regional industrial structure in East Asian "flying geese pattern" is also declining. Especially the rise of Chinese economy, not only to construct the regional international division system, the evolution model of regional industrial structure changed fundamentally. Therefore, in the new situation, system Trend analysis and correlation mechanism of regional industrial structure evolution of East Asia, East Asia regional pattern changes to grasp the international division of labor, the effect of the correct understanding of Chinese manufacturing upgrading of regional industrial structure evolution in East Asia under the industry, which is of great significance. This paper is based on the industrial structure, the industrial division of labor and international production network theory, using the input-output method and econometrics method, exploration regional industrial structure evolution trend in East Asia and basic mechanism, measure the distribution of the value of intra regional trade in East Asia, East Asia regional industrial division pattern outline, reveal the China manufacturing industry upgrading effect in East Asia during the evolution of industrial structure, for the Chinese manufacturing industry in the economic development strategy under the new normal industrial structure adjustment and industrial upgrading of the reference. This paper is divided into 7 chapters, the specific structure and content are as follows: the first chapter described the research background of this paper and research The significance, related research on the regional industrial structure and industrial upgrading in domestic and abroad are reviewed in this paper, introduces the research framework, research contents, research methods, and explain the data used in this paper. The second chapter is an overview of the relevant theory. This chapter is the theoretical basis of the whole thesis, respectively expounds the industrial structure. Industry Association, industrial division and international production network and other relevant theories. The third chapter analysis of the evolution of the industrial structure of East Asian regional trend. This chapter first introduces the East Asian countries and regions are relatively independent of industrial structure evolution process, similarity and difference comparison of evolution in various countries and regions of the industrial structure. Then, analyze the change trend of the overall development of regional the industrial structure of East Asia, reveals the regional industrial structure in East Asia are related to each other, the overall evolution of interdependence. On this basis, further analysis of the regional industry in East Asia. The motivation of the overall development. Finally, from the two aspects of trade and investment in the basic mechanism of the evolution of regional industrial structure in East Asia has carried on the empirical analysis, reveals the commodity trade and international investment on the evolution of regional industrial structure in East Asia to promote the role of relevance analysis into the speech. The fourth chapter of East Asian regional industrial structure. This chapter from the industry association effect and industry spread effect two aspects, related to East Asian regional industrial structure evolution of dynamic analysis and static comparison. Firstly, this paper introduces regional industry association analysis tool -- East Asian international input output table, and on 2013 the latest Asian international input output table (2005) simplified form and equilibrium the relationship is illustrated. Secondly, the 19952000 and 2005 Asian international input output table data, through the establishment of index system of intermediate demand rate and the rate of intermediate inputs, respectively, from the East The whole country and sub two aspects of dynamic analysis the effect is directly related to the regional industrial structure. The results show that the East Asian countries and regional industrial structure directly related to the deepening, Japan's role in the evolution of industrial structure in the East Asian region is still large, but the trend is gradually reduced, China, Malaysia and other developing countries continue to strengthen the role of the and the evolution of regional industrial structure in East Asia is no longer confined to the dependence on developed countries, and gradually become endogenous and diversified. Subsequently, production induced by the association and the final demand from the two angles of industry, deep into the industry, analysis and comparison of the East Asian regional industry spread effect. The results show that in East Asian countries and the area between China industry backward linkage effect, the most obvious promoting effect on Regional Industrial Development in East Asia; in the industry, manufacturing industry after To the maximum enhancement in the correlation effect; correlation effect of manufacturing internal capital and technology intensive manufacturing. The final demand in the developed countries the United States and Japan and other regions outside the region of large production induced by the effect of the East Asia region, the China induced effect of demand eventually catching up, but beauty is mainly reflected in the internal induced manufacturing; industry is the industry, the final demand induced by the highest degree of the light industry for the production of outstanding induced internal, heavy industry production induced by external prominent. In the fifth chapter, the East Asian regional industrial structure evolution and change of the pattern of international division of labor. In this chapter, the international division of labor as the starting point, the added value of further analysis of regional industrial structure evolution in East Asia from the trade. First, the description of the trade value distribution mechanism of industrial structure under the condition of the internationalization, the trade value distribution of position in international division and international industry. The association's influence. Secondly, structural decomposition technique, in the Asian International Input-Output table system, the East Asian region in the major economies of the export trade value is divided into domestic and imported value, the domestic value of four parts of East Asia and other regions of the value of intermediate goods value, and separately from the export trade the value of content and sources of two levels of overall and industry comparative economies. The results show that the domestic value of the content of the East Asian economies to create export decline, transfer of East Asian values continue to rise. The United States, Japan is still dominant source of export value, but its share is gradually decreased, the value content of intermediate products from the China increasing. Service industry and manufacturing industry has become a major industry trade value transfer, service industry has formed regional sharing, but the manufacturing sector showed a significant level Division of labor, the developed countries are still occupied, high technology manufacturing industry value transfer, developing countries accounted for only in low tech manufacturing value transfer. Then, based on the export trade value decomposition, with the vertical specialization index, division status and change trend of East Asian economies and the manufacturing industry in the region were measured. The results showed that Japan still occupy the top point of the East Asian regional manufacturing system of international division of labor, professional production in high value-added products; South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Chinese and other newly industrialized countries and regions, the production of high value-added sectors mainly engaged in standardization. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines Thailand and other ASEAN, mainly specialized in the production link of low added value. China due to participate in the international division of labor started late, at the beginning of this century, only engaged in products Processing, assembly and low value-added production, although in recent years has improved, but still not completely out of the low end of the value chain position. Finally, according to the change of domain of international division of labor structure, points out that in the East Asian region possible development trend of polarization. In the sixth chapter, East Asia region industrial structure evolution under the Chinese manufacturing industry upgrading this chapter is based on the international production network perspective, the use of Chinese input-output table and the United Nations commodity trade database data on industrial Chinese manufacturing industry in East Asia under the evolution of regional industrial structure upgrading effect is analyzed. Firstly, the basic connotation of moderate into and excessive integration into the international production network under the premise of the trust. The transmission of information and common problem solving three aspects of mechanism, clarify the manufacturing industry into the international production network influence mechanism on industrial upgrading. Secondly, using Chinese input-output The relevant data table and the United Nations commodity trade statistics database, the China manufacturing industry into East Asian production network level was evaluated, results showed that from 2002 to 2012, China manufacturing into East Asian production network of experienced ups and downs increased after the first drop, there are some differences in the degree of integration of manufacturing industry inside the industry the labor intensive industry, low capital and technology intensive industries is higher. Then, with the related indicators and data of China manufacturing industry in 2002 to 2012, the inter industry and intra industry upgrading status was measured and the results show that the Chinese manufacturing industry between the upgrading and intra industry upgrading in this period have obvious effect. Mainly for the labor-intensive manufacturing industry decreased greatly, increased capital intensive capital and technology intensive manufacturing industry, most manufacturing net value added The ratio to maintain the upward trend, and more concentrated in the capital intensive and capital intensive industries, the industry from low value-added capacity jumped to high value-added ability. Finally, the econometric model on the integration of East Asian production network manufacturing industry upgrading of China influence the empirical test, the regression results show that into the East Asian production network manufacturing industry of China upgrade had a significant and positive role in promoting the overall, but of different factor intensive industry upgrading has obvious difference effect, capital intensive and labor-intensive manufacturing industry significantly, capital and technology intensive manufacturing industry is not significant. The seventh chapter is the main conclusions and suggestions this chapter is a summary of the full text, summarized, and combined with the main conclusions obtained from the revelation of China manufacturing industrial upgrading and put forward the corresponding countermeasures.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F427

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