区域物流经济发展水平差异的空间计量分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 18:09

本文关键词：区域物流经济发展水平差异的空间计量分析　出处：《西南交通大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：使用了资源、生产出来产品的经济活动称之为实体经济活动；使用了资源、没有生产出来产品的经济活动称之为虚拟经济活动或迂回经济活动。虚拟经济活动之所以能够存在于经济系统之中,是因为它可以改变经济系统的资源配置效率,金融经济活动就是经济系统中这类虚拟经济活动的典型者之一。经济系统中的物流经济活动,是使用了资源,几乎未生产出产品(主要生产位移产品)的经济活动,其特点非常类似于虚拟的或迂回的经济活动,物流经济活动的主要功能也是改变经济系统的资源配置效率。当人们为分享专业化生产所带来的生产活动的高效率,而不断地进行分工细化的同时,也带来了这种细致分工所形成的交易成本增加、交易效率降低的两难选择。发展物流经济是提高交易效率、降低交易成本,进而促进经济系统间细致分工、专业化高效率发展的重要手段或途径。在一个经济系统中的各不同空间区域尤其是这样。本文所要研究的问题就是：一个经济系统内不同空间区域的物流经济发展状况(水平)如何；这些不同空间区域之间其物流经济发展是否有相互的影响以及如何影响的,即不同空间区域物流经济发展的溢出效应及物流经济收敛性；本文还关注对不同空间区域物流经济发展的影响因素是什么,即什么原因造成了不同空间区域物流经济发展的差异。本论文研究按如下思路展开：第一,首先界定本文研究的几个重要的概念,如区域物流经济发展水平、溢出效应、空间效应；以及阐述并分析归纳一些关键的方法和理论,如投入产出分析、新兴古典之超边际分析、测度方法和模型、空间计量经济分析等。第二,本文对物流经济做了两点经验性研究,一是以经济系统之空间经济子系统为对象,研究各空间经济子系统间物流经济的发展可以提高交通的网络效应、降低交易成本,提高交易效率,从而进一步促进空间经济子系统专业化和分工经济的发展；二是对我国省域物流成本与CPI(居民消费价格指数)的关系进行空间效应分析,以此而引入本论文研究主题,即我国大陆这一经济系统各不同空间区域(省域)物流经济发展其空间关系的诸多方面。第三,应用经济系统分析思想,对物流经济系统进行投入、活动、产出的分析,构建出测度物流经济(系统)发展水平的指标体系,再构造出相应的测度模型,进而测度我国各省域的物流经济发展水平。第四,对我国省域物流经济发展进行空间效应分析,这主要由两大内容组成：一是我国省域物流经济的空间溢出效应分析,分析并论述这种空间溢出效应的存在性,以及空间溢出效应存在的态势；二是研究我国省域物流经济发展的差异性,以及我国省域物流经济发展是否存在着经济的“收敛性”。第五,本文最后应用经济的弹性理论及空间计量经济方法,研究我国省域物流经济发展水平影响因素并进行相应的分析。依据如上的研究思路,经过详细、认真的研究之后,本论文得到了如下的主要结论：第一,应用经济系统分析的思想,分析物流经济系统的投入、活动、产出及物流经济系统与国民经济其它系统的相互作用关系,本文构造出了由投入、活动、产出及产业关联等四个维度所构成的我国省域物流经济发展水平的测度指标体系；本文应用可以对多主体多指标的跨期变化进行动态评价的动态因子分析法构建了我国省域物流经济发展水平的测度模型,综合二者,本文对我国大陆30个省、市、自治区(未包括西藏)1997-2011年的物流经济发展水平进行了测度；从动态角度看,1997-2011年,我国省域物流经济发展水平区域特征较为明显,广东、山东等七个地区基本呈现出逐年上升的趋势,而其它地区则呈现出不同幅度的下降趋势。第二,运用新兴古典之超边际分析模型,本文研究了经济系统各空间区域物流经济发展对本地区经济发展和其它地区经济发展存在着溢出效应；进一步通过构建物流经济发展跨地区的溢出效应空间计量模型,采集我国省域物流经济1996-2012年数据后,进行模型的经济计量分析；在空间面板模型的拟合选择中,最后经检验确定为时空双固定效应的SLM面板模型,结果表明,我国省域物流经济(在1996-2012年间)的发展对本地的经济发展存在着显著的正向影响,而且本地物流经济的发展对本地经济增长的影响远大于相邻省域物流经济发展对本地经济增长的影响,也就是说,物流经济发展的本地效应远远超过跨区域的溢出效应。第三,在对我国省域物流经济发展1996-2012年间的差异性和收敛性研究中发现,总体而言,中国省域物流经济发展水平绝对差异呈持续增长趋势,省域物流经济发展水平绝对差异的扩大较为温和并非加速扩大,且2006年之后开始趋于缓慢下降；中国省域物流经济发展水平σ收敛具有阶段性和波动性,2004年前为小幅上升,之后快速下降并处于波动阶段；进一步应用空间计量的常、变系数模型研究其β收敛性发现,17年间中国省域物流经济发展存在“期初物流经济发展较低的省域物流经济发展增长比期初物流经济发展较高的省域速度快”的绝对β收敛,但是这种收敛存在东、中、西部显著差异性,西部地区收敛最快,中部地区次之,东部地区收敛速度较慢。第四,应用经济的弹性理论,界定物流经济弹性的概念,给出物流经济弹性(系数)的计算方法,分析计算物流经济弹性(系数)的隐函数模型和显函数模型,再用空间面板数据分析方法和模型,计量估算(并通过检验)出我国省域物流经济发展影响因素的弹性分析模型,其计量结果表明：我国省域物流经济的产出(水平)即物流业增加值,并不能显著的解释我国各省域物流经济的发展水平,这正好说明了物流经济活动的“虚拟性”和综合性特点；在影响因素中,劳动力的影响弹性要大于资本的影响弹性,这说明,至少在本文的研究时期内,我国各省域物流经济是劳动约束型的发展模式,资本反而不是物流经济发展的首要约束因素。
[Abstract]:The use of resources, the production of economic activity is called the entity of economic activities; the use of resources, not the production of economic activity is called virtual economic activity or indirect economic activity. The fictitious economy can exist in the economic system, because it can change the resource allocation efficiency of the economic system, one of the typical financial economic activity is the economic system of this kind of virtual economic activities. The economic system of the logistics economic activity, is the use of resources, almost no production (mainly the production of displacement products) economic activity, its characteristics are very similar to the virtual or indirect economic activities, the efficiency of resource allocation is the main function of the logistics economy the change of economic system. When people bring to share the professional production of the production efficiency, and constantly refining division of the same When the transaction cost has also brought the formation of this division increased, lowering the efficiency of transaction dilemma choice. The development of the logistics economy is to improve transaction efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and promote the economic system meticulous division of labor, an important means or way of professional development of high efficiency size. Different regions in a space in economic system this is especially true. The research question is: logistics economic development in different areas within an economic system (level); the space between these different regional logistics economic development would affect each other and how to influence, namely spillover effect and economic convergence of the regional logistics logistics economic development in different space this paper also pays attention to; the influencing factors of the regional logistics and economic development of different space is what, what is the cause of the different space of regional logistics and economic development The difference. This paper studies as follows: first, this paper first defines several important concepts, such as the development level of regional logistics economic spillover effect, space effect; and explain and analyze some key theories and methods, such as input-output analysis, the new classical inframarginal analysis, method and measure model of spatial econometric analysis. Second, this paper makes two empirical research on logistics economy, one is the spatial economic system of economic system, the economic development of logistics economy space between subsystems can improve the effect of network traffic, reduce transaction costs, improve transaction efficiency, so as to further promote the development of the system the spatial economic specialization and division of labor economy; two of China's provincial logistics cost and CPI (consumer price index) spatial effect analysis, in order to And the introduction of the topic of this thesis, namely the different space in China, the economic system of region (province) in many aspects of the spatial relationship between logistics development and economy. Third, analysis theory applied to the economic system, the logistics system of economic activities, investment, output analysis, constructs the measurement index system of logistics economy (system) the level of development, then we construct the corresponding measuring model, then measure the provincial logistics of China's economic development level. Fourth, the space effect analysis on the development of regional logistics economic province in China, which is mainly composed of two parts: one is to analyze the spillover effect of regional logistics economy in our country, and analysis the discussion of spatial spillover effects, and spatial spillover effects of the situation; two is the difference of the development of economy in China, the logistics domain, and the domain of logistics of China's economic development, whether there is a The economic "convergence". Fifth, elastic theory and spatial econometric method at the end of this paper, the application of economic research, the impact of China's economic development level of provincial logistics factors and the corresponding analysis. Based on the above ideas, after detailed, after careful study, this paper got the main conclusions are as follows: first the application of economic analysis, ideological system, analysis of logistics activities of the economic system, investment, output and economic interaction between the logistics system and other systems of the national economy, this paper constructed by investment activities, measure index system consisting of four dimensions of output and Industry Association of China's provincial logistics economic development level in this paper, the application of dynamic factor; dynamic evaluation of intertemporal variation of multi-agent and multi index analysis method to construct the measurement model of China's provincial logistics development level of economy, two In this paper, the mainland of China in 30 provinces, city, autonomous region (including Tibet) logistics economic development level of 1997-2011 years were measured; from the dynamic point of view, 1997-2011 years, China's provincial logistics economic development level more obvious regional characteristics, Guangdong, Shandong and other seven regions showed increased year by year the trend, while other areas are showing a downward trend in different ranges. Second, using the new classical ultra marginal analysis model, the paper studied economic system of the space of regional logistics economic development there is a spillover effect on the economic development of the economic development of the region and other areas; further through the spillover effect of spatial econometric model to build the logistics economic development the acquisition of Chinese provincial logistics economic data 1996-2012, econometric analysis model in fitting; spatial panel model selection, after the inspection is the most The SLM panel model for spatio-temporal fixed effects results show that China's provincial logistics economy (1996-2012 years) has a significant positive effect on local economic development, and the development of local logistics economic impact on local economic growth is far greater than the adjacent provincial logistics economic development impact on local economic growth that is to say, the spillover effect of the logistics of local economic development is far more than across the region. Third, found in the differences in the development of 1996-2012 years to China's provincial logistics economic convergence and study, overall, China provincial logistics economic development level of the absolute difference was the continued growth trend, expanding logistics economy the development level of provinces of the absolute difference is more moderate and not accelerate the expansion after 2006 began to slow down; Chinese provincial logistics economic development level convergence stage And volatility before 2004 is slightly increased, and then decreased rapidly and fluctuating stage; the further application of spatial econometrics, study the beta convergence found in varying coefficient models, "provincial material at the beginning of economic development of the logistics of low flow economy growth than the absolute convergence speed of logistics at the beginning of the period of provincial economic development high fast 17 years China provincial logistics and economic development, but the convergence in the eastern, western, significant differences, the western region is the fastest convergence, followed by the central region, the eastern region of slow convergence rate. Fourth, the economic application of the elastic theory, the definition of logistics economic elasticity, given economic elasticity (logistics coefficient) calculation method, calculation and analysis of the logistics economy (elastic coefficient) of the implicit function model and explicit function model, then the spatial panel data analysis method and model, econometric estimate (and tested) out of our province Elastic analysis model of influencing factors of regional logistics and economic development, the measurement results show that regional logistics economy in our country, output (level) to increase the value of the logistics industry, did not significantly explain the development level of logistics economy in China provinces, which illustrates the logistics economic activities "virtual" and comprehensive characteristics; in the influence factors, affect the elasticity of labor is greater than the elasticity of capital, which shows that, at least in the study period, the logistics economy in China provinces is constrained the development mode of labor capital, but not by logistics major constraints of economic development factors.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F259.2

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