城市低碳交通发展方式与调控政策研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 16:44

  本文关键词：城市低碳交通发展方式与调控政策研究　出处：《天津大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 城市低碳交通 发展模式 发展路径 城市交通大气环境承载力 节能减排调控政策 系统动力学

【摘要】：随着我国经济社会的高速发展,城市交通需求的规模不断扩大,城市居民的交通出行总量迅速提升。与此同时,城市居民对交通出行质量的要求使得机动车拥有量、机动车出行总量和机动车出行比例逐年上升,从而导致了交通产生的CO_2排放量快速增长。目前,交通部门已成为继工业部门之后的第二大CO_2排放源,低碳发展问题亟待解决。为深化对城市低碳交通系统建设规律的科学认识,提供对城市低碳交通发展的参考与依据,本文从系统科学与系统工程的视角对城市低碳交通发展方式与调控政策进行了研究。本文主要研究工作和结论如下:(1)对城市低碳交通系统进行了系统分析,在解析城市低碳交通内涵与特征及体系构成的基础上,探讨了城市低碳交通发展的问题状况与目标,构建了城市低碳交通发展的概念模型,给出了城市低碳交通发展模式的选择标准,提出基于“三步走”战略的城市低碳交通发展的实现路径。(2)在明确大气环境污染是城市低碳交通发展重点关注目标的前提下,分析了城市环境容量及承载力的内涵、特征与分类,定义了城市交通大气环境容量及承载力,并探讨了二者的影响因素。以天津市为例研究了基于大气环境容量约束的城市交通发展规模及城市交通大气环境承载力的调控政策,得出在实践中通常应先实施清洁汽车战略,后实施移动性管理战略的结论。(3)研究了不同交通发展模式下城市客货运交通能源消耗与碳排放的变化,结果表明客运交通是未来城市交通能源消耗与碳排放的主要矛盾。运用系统动力学构建了能反映个体交通方式选择的城市客运交通能源消耗与碳排放仿真模型。以北京市为例研究了不同节能减排调控政策的效果,确定了不同节能减排调控政策的最优实施顺序。最终,以定量方式证明了为实现城市客运交通的低碳发展应先采取技术和管理类的政策措施,后采取经济类政策措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy and society, the scale of urban traffic demand is expanding constantly, and the total amount of transportation travel of urban residents is increasing rapidly at the same time. The requirements of urban residents for the quality of traffic travel make the number of motor vehicles, the total number of motor vehicles and the proportion of motor vehicle travel increase year by year, which leads to the rapid growth of CO_2 emissions generated by traffic. The transportation sector has become the second largest CO_2 emission source after the industrial sector, and the low-carbon development problem needs to be solved urgently. In order to deepen the scientific understanding of urban low-carbon transportation system construction law. To provide a reference and basis for the development of urban low-carbon transport. From the perspective of systems science and systems engineering, this paper studies the development mode and regulation policy of urban low-carbon transportation. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1). The urban low-carbon transportation system is systematically analyzed. On the basis of analyzing the connotation, characteristics and system structure of urban low-carbon transportation, this paper discusses the problems and objectives of urban low-carbon transportation development, and constructs a conceptual model of urban low-carbon transportation development. The choice standard of urban low-carbon transportation development model is given. The realization path of urban low-carbon transportation development based on "three-step" strategy is put forward under the premise that air pollution is the focus of urban low-carbon transportation development. This paper analyzes the connotation, characteristics and classification of urban environmental capacity and bearing capacity, and defines the urban traffic atmospheric environmental capacity and carrying capacity. Taking Tianjin as an example, the scale of urban traffic development based on the restriction of atmospheric environmental capacity and the regulation policy of urban traffic atmospheric environmental carrying capacity are studied. It is concluded that the clean car strategy should be implemented first and then the mobility management strategy should be implemented in practice. The conclusion is that the change of energy consumption and carbon emission of urban passenger and freight transportation under different traffic development modes is studied. The results show that passenger transport is the main contradiction between energy consumption and carbon emission in future urban transportation. A simulation model of energy consumption and carbon emission of urban passenger transport is constructed by using system dynamics which can reflect the choice of individual transportation modes. Taking Beijing as an example, the effects of different regulation policies on energy saving and emission reduction are studied. Finally, in order to achieve the low-carbon development of urban passenger transport, we should first take technical and management policy measures to achieve the low-carbon development of urban passenger transport. After the adoption of economic policy measures.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F572;X322
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本文编号：1388727