中国影子银行的宏观经济效应及监管研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 09:16

本文关键词：中国影子银行的宏观经济效应及监管研究　出处：《东北师范大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年由美国次贷危机所引发的全球性金融危机给美国的实体经济和金融市场带来了史无前例的沉重冲击,这种巨大的负面影响也波及到了世界范围内大多数的国家和地区。当各国政府、国际组织和国内外学者们对此次危机追根溯源时,影子银行作为危机的主要幕后推手之一开始暴露在人们的视线之内,影子银行这个游离于监管之外的灰色地带迅速引起了全球的关注,成为国内外学术界研究的重点领域。由于自身的制度环境和金融市场发展阶段等因素,中国受到金融危机的冲击并不严重,但是日益扩大的金融总规模、渐趋完善的金融市场体系、不断多元化和综合化的金融经营和发展,使得传统的社会融资结构发生了较大的变化,在社会融资规模中人民币贷款所占的比重不断下降,银行体系之外的融资渠道所产生的作用已经越来越明显。基于影子银行对宏观经济可能产生的不确定性影响,以及美国次贷危机的前车之鉴,我们有必要将中国影子银行的宏观经济效应及监管纳入到一个框架中进行整理了解与研究。因此,本文的研究正当其时。绪论部分主要包括此论文的研究背景与研究意义、研究思路与研究内容,研究方法,论文的创新点以及不足。正文分为四个部分,共六章。第一部分是第一章,系统阐述了影子银行定义、理论基础与文献综述。陈述了影子银行的中外定义,对影子银行有一个初步的认知;然后分别研究了约束诱导理论、规避型金融创新理论、技术型金融创新理论、交易成本说等金融创新理论,金融中介“旧论”、新古典主义金融中介理论、现代金融中介理论等金融中介理论,麦金农和肖的金融自由化、麦金农和肖的理论扩展等金融自由化理论以及监管套利理论,为本文的选题和研究提供了理论上的支持;并对研究影子银行定义、范围、影响和监管的国内外相关文献进行综述,综合比对国内外对影子银行的研究情况,指出研究中的不足。第二部分是第二章,研究了中国影子银行的发展状况,在具有中国特色的影子银行定义基础上,给出了中国影子银行的识别标准,分析了中国影子银行的构成范围及运行方法,估算出影子银行的大致规模,分析了影子银行的发展趋势。第三部分是第三章和第四章,也是本文的研究重点与难点。第三章是中国影子银行宏观经济效应的理论分析,这里主要选取了可以观测的宏观经济变量,以及影子银行对其影响较大的宏观经济变量,包括货币供应量、利率、储蓄、实体经济增长和通货膨胀五个角度来讨论中国影子银行的宏观经济效应。伴随着融资规模的迅速壮大,中国影子银行体系对宏观经济的影响也越来越大,主要表现在以下几个方面:首先,影子银行对狭义的货币乘数造成了扭曲,弱化了传统银行的货币创造效果,而且影子银行本身具有信用创造机制,能够创造广义的流动性,加快货币的流通速度,多方面共同作用影响货币供应量。其次,我国影子银行的出现加速了利率市场化进程,给传统的银行储蓄业务带来了一定的挑战。再次,影子银行扩宽了融资渠道,有助于优化实体经济的投资结构,并能够募集闲置资金、增强资金流动性,解决了部分中小微企业融资难的问题;但同时影子银行也增加了融资成本,使得许多资金流向房地产、“两高一低”等部分受限制行业,易使经济出现“空心化”,影响经济结构调整优化,加剧实体经济风险积聚。最后,影子银行可以通过影响货币供应量、影响融资成本、影响供需均衡来影响物价水平,造成通货膨胀。第四章是中国影子银行宏观经济效应的实证分析。构建Var向量自回归模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解来量化影子银行对宏观经济指标的具体影响,分析了中国影子银行对货币供应量、居民储蓄、国内生产总值、全社会固定投资和通货膨胀的影响,并得出影子银行短期内会影响货币供应量、引起物价水平的强烈波动,中长期会影响居民储蓄,长期会增加全社会固定投资、促进经济增长的相关结论。第四部分是第五章和第六章。分析过影子银行的宏观经济效应,知道影子银行不势必会引起系统性金融危机,影子银行对宏观经济的影响既有积极的一面,也有消极的一面,是一把“双刃剑”。在对影子银行进行监管的时候,要趋利避害,既不能放任不管,也不能全部否认。所以第四部分根据对影子银行宏观经济效应的理论分析和实证分析,及实证分析所得到的结论,将对影子银行宏观经济效应的监管分为短期宏观经济效应监管和长期宏观经济效应监管。在第五章里,针对影子银行短期会影响货币供应量、造成物价剧烈波动的消极影响,提出了扩大货币供应量统计口径,改进货币政策传导机制、完善货币政策调控工具等完善货币政策监管框架的意见,并指出应该建立多元化融资渠道、规范影子银行业务、为实体经济保驾护航的监管措施。第六章针对影子银行的长期宏观经济效应,以及为了防范影子银行产生系统性风险的可能,提出了构建中国影子银行宏观审慎监管框架,建立风险预警机制和信息披露制度,加强对影子银行的全面监管,引导影子银行体系健康发展。
[Abstract]:In 2008 the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis brought great impact to the There was no parallel in history. U.S. real economy and financial market, the negative impact of this great also spread to most countries and regions in the world. When governments, international organizations and scholars at home and abroad to the crisis back, as the shadow banking one of the main driving force behind the crisis has exposed within the line of sight of people, the gray area free from regulation of the shadow banking quickly attracted global attention, become the focus of the field of academic research at home and abroad. Due to its institutional environment and financial market development stage and other factors, China by the impact of the financial crisis is not serious, but the total size of the expanding finance, gradually improve the financial market system, constantly diversified and integrated financial management and The development of the society, the traditional financing structure has changed greatly, the RMB in the scale of social financing loans accounted for the proportion of declining, resulting financing channels outside the banking system has become more and more obvious. The effect of shadow banking may produce the macroeconomic uncertainty based on, and from the US subprime mortgage crisis. It is necessary for us to macroeconomic effect and regulation of the shadow banking Chinese into a framework to organize the understanding and research. Therefore, this paper studies the right time. The introduction mainly includes the thesis research background and research significance, research ideas and research content, research methods, innovations and deficiencies. The text is divided into four parts, a total of six chapters. The first part is the first chapter, elaborated the definition of the shadow banking system, the theoretical basis and literature review. The statement of shadow banking The definition of Chinese and foreign, have a preliminary understanding of the shadow banking; then study the constraint induced aversion theory, financial innovation theory, innovation theory and technology finance, said the transaction cost theory of financial innovation, financial intermediaries "old theory, new classical financial intermediary theory, the modern theory of financial intermediation theory of financial intermediation Mackinnon and Shaw, financial liberalization, Mackinnon and Shaw's theory expansion theory of financial liberalization and regulatory arbitrage theory, provides the theoretical support for the title and research; and to study the shadow banking definition, scope, effect and regulation of the domestic and foreign literature review, comprehensive comparison at home and abroad research on shadow banking, pointed out the deficiency in the research. The second part is the second chapter, this paper studies the development status of the shadow banking Chinese, with Chinese characteristics of shadow banking based on the definition, to The identification standard of the shadow banking China, analyzes the scope of the shadow banking Chinese and operation method, to estimate the approximate size of the shadow banking, analyzes the development trend of shadow banking. The third part is the third chapter and the fourth chapter, the research focus and also the difficulty of this paper. The third chapter is the analysis of the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking Chinese the theory here mainly selected macroeconomic variables can be observed, and the shadow banking on the effects of macroeconomic variables is large, including money supply, interest rates, savings, five aspects of real economic growth and inflation to discuss the macroeconomic effects of the shadow banking China. Along with the rapid growth of the scale of financing, influence Chinese shadow banking system on the macro economy is also growing, mainly in the following aspects: first, the shadow banking on the narrow money multiplier has created distortions, The weakening of the creation effect of traditional banking and shadow banking currency itself has the credit creation mechanism, to create liquidity generalized, accelerate the velocity of currency circulation, many factors influence the money supply. Secondly, China's shadow banking has accelerated the process of interest rate marketization, which brings great challenges to the traditional bank the savings business. Once again, the shadow banking to broaden the financing channels, help to optimize the investment structure of the real economy, and can raise idle funds, enhance liquidity, solve the financing problem of some small and micro enterprises; but at the same time, the shadow banking also increased the cost of financing, many real estate capital flows, "a high low and some restricted industries, easy to make the" hollowing out "of the economy, economic structure adjustment and optimization, increased accumulation of economic risk entities. Finally, through the shadow banking The impact of money supply, financing cost, influence the balance of supply and demand affect price level and inflation. The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the shadow banking Chinese. Construction of Var vector autoregressive model, through the Grainger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to quantify the specific macroeconomic indicators of shadow banking impact analysis the shadow banking China on money supply, household savings, GDP, total fixed investment and the impact of inflation, and the shadow banking in the short term will affect the money supply caused by strong fluctuations in the price level, in the long term will affect the residents of long-term savings, will increase the total social fixed investment, the relevant conclusions to promote economic growth the fourth part is the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter. To analyze the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking, shadow banking will not know potential causes The financial crisis, the effect of shadow banking on the macro economy has both positive and negative side, is a "double-edged sword". At the time, supervision of shadow banking Qulibihai, neither laissez faire, also cannot deny all. So the fourth part according to the theoretical analysis and Empirical Analysis on the macroeconomic effects of shadow banking, and the conclusions obtained by the empirical analysis, the macroeconomic effects of the shadow banking supervision is divided into short-term macroeconomic effects and long-term macroeconomic effects of regulatory supervision. In the fifth chapter, the shadow banking will affect short-term money supply, the negative effect caused by price volatility, put forward to expand the money supply statistics, improve the conduction mechanism of monetary policy and suggestions to improve the monetary policy tools to improve the regulatory framework of monetary policy, and points out that we should establish a diversified financing Channel, shadow banking norms, the real economy escort regulatory measures. In the sixth chapter, the long-term macroeconomic effects for the shadow banking, as well as possible in order to prevent the shadow banking system risk, put forward the construction of the shadow banking China macro Prudential framework, establish a risk warning mechanism and information disclosure system, strengthen the comprehensive supervision the shadow banking, and guide the healthy development of the shadow banking system.

【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.3

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