多区域经济增长与技术创新扩散的政策模拟系统研发及其应用

发布时间：2018-01-18 11:43

  本文关键词：多区域经济增长与技术创新扩散的政策模拟系统研发及其应用　出处：《华东师范大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 地理计算 碳排放 政策模拟 区域经济增长 全球治理

【摘要】：近年来,随着全球经济增长面临严峻挑战以及气候变化问题的凸现,积极推动区域技术创新以加快产业结构优化升级和推行节能减排正得到各相关利益主体的广泛关注。在此背景下,本文应用地理计算技术试图探讨多区域技术创新与扩散对全球经济增长和碳减排的影响,目的是使得地理计算具有更多现实与政策意义。本文应用地理计算方法开发了多区域经济增长和技术创新扩散的政策模拟系统,并将其应用于全球产业结构进化和碳排放转移的政策模拟分析。模型在内容上,基于进化经济理论,通过引入基于自主体模拟(Agent-based simulation, ABS)的地理计算方法,本文将微观尺度上企业技术的空间创新与扩散行为和区域尺度上各个国家产业结构进化和碳排放转移通过进化分析联系起来,构建了一个从大量异质性企业出发,到区域产业结构进化和碳排放转移的模拟模型。其次,在技术方法学上,从软件工程的角度出发,本文设计并研发了多区域经济增长和技术创新扩散的政策模拟系统并将其应用于相关政策模拟分析,以期为相关利益主体提供科学决策支持。具体来看,在模型构建中,本文构建了具有内生技术创新机制和微观企业基础的宏观经济产业结构进化与碳排放转移的可计算模型,从而探讨创新空间扩散推动下多区域产业结构进化和碳排放转移过程。模型基于Agent建模原理,采用自底向上的建模结构,分为两个层面,包含宏观尺度上各个区域(国家)经济结构进化和碳排放转移以及微观尺度上企业技术创新与扩散行为,其中微观企业行为变动将促进并带动区域经济结构演变以及区域碳排放转移。另外基于Schumpeter提出的技术创新发展模式,本文中模型将技术创新分为产品技术创新和过程技术创新,从而对不同企业类型的创新行为进行了详细刻画,给出了异质性企业技术创新行为是如何推动生产要素和资源的跨区域、跨部门流动,以及带动总体宏观经济结构进化和碳排放转移的地理分析解释框架。而在方法学上,考虑到地理计算模拟平台在模拟复杂地理空间进化机制上具有的显著优势,本研究以Matlab软件为基础并结合可视化开发平台Visual Studio,使用C≠编程语言来进一步开发了多区域经济增长和技术创新扩散的地理模拟系统,并将其应用于全球产业结构进化和碳排放转移的政策模拟分析。在应用方面,通过构建并设计具有地理背景的ABS政策模拟系统,本文研究发现：在过程技术创新情景下,大部分区域(国家)的第一产业和第三产业的产出份额均出现下降,同时其就业份额也随之呈现下降状态。当各个地区的企业仅仅进行产品技术创新时,区域的第一产业和第三产业的产出份额均出现上升现象,而第二产业的产出份额则均表现出下降趋势。混合技术创新模式显著地有利于推动发展中国家的整个产业结构转型升级,而对发达经济体来说,就其以制造业和重工业为主的第二产业来看,会显著的降低其在整个国民经济中的产出份额,但会一定程度上改善其就业份额。此外,需要注意的是,与过程技术创新相比,混合技术创新更有利于推动整个产业结构向第二产业和第三产业优化发展。与过程技术创新情景下相比,在产品技术创新情景下,各个国家和地区的碳排放空间转移增长量以及增长速度均出现不同程度的下降。而在混合技术创新下,对于大多数国家而言,其对进一步降低碳排放转移量具有一定作用。同时,与过程技术创新、产品技术创新相比,混合技术创新一方面通过改进生产工艺流程而提高能源使用效率,进而降低单位产品产出的碳排放强度,另一方面通过提升产品技术代从而加快产业结构的优化升级,引起其产业结构从相对低效率、高耗能产业向相对高效率、低耗能的产业结构转型,从而改变相应区域的进出口产品贸易结构,在上述二者的共同作用下,其能有效减轻各个国家或区域碳排放转移量。因此,在政策制定层面上,需要引起各利益主体重视的是,为减轻各个国家和地区的因贸易而引起的碳排放转移对其减排责任的影响,开展技术创新尤其是强化混合技术创新是其可采取的有效方法。这一结论对地理上系统碳排放治理颇有意义。而进一步的模拟数据与真实数据校验显示,混合技术创新模式可能更符合未来全球经济发展模式。为此本文也进一步模拟了在混合技术创新对全球产业结构进化和碳排放转移的影响。其研究发现：在混合技术创新模式的推动下,从在产出结构方面上看,对于全球各个国家或区域来说,其第一产业的产出份额均会出现不同程度的下降,而第三产业的产出份额均呈现出上升的趋势,而就第二产业的产出份额而言,除美国和欧盟等地外,其他地区的份额均出现上升。而在就业结构方面,各个国家表现出较大的差异,如对于中国来说,其第二产业和第三产业的就业份额均会上升,而对于日本、俄罗斯、印度和欧盟来说,其第二产业的就业份额会显著提高,但其第三产业的就业份额均显现出微弱的下降。但需要注意的是,对于美国而言,其第二产业和第三产业的就业份额出现一定程度的下降,而第一产业则表现出逐渐上升的趋势。进一步,研究发现混合技术创新推动可能更有利于推动产业结构向第二产业和第三产业调整,进而推动区域经济发展。在碳排放转移上,在产品技术创新和过程技术创新共同推动下,这些国家和地区的碳排放转移量均持续增加,这就可能说明了随着未来全球产业结构调整的不断加速,商品的生产者和消费者在地理上分离的趋势也可能会愈发显著。此外,进一步具体到国家来看,流出中国、美国、俄罗斯和欧盟的碳排放呈现出逐渐下降的趋势,而流入碳排放则呈现不断上升趋势。而对于日本和印度来说,流出的碳排放不断上升,流入的碳排放则显著下降。最后,就其地缘经济影响来看,本文研究还发现：在未来区域经济演化过程中,美国的地缘主导优势可能会进一步得到强化,而随着中国通过倡导建立亚投行以及提出自主知识产权的新经济政策等,其一定程度上会推动其金融业发展。但需要注意的是,这不可避免地可能会挑战以美国和欧盟等国为主导的金融业国家利益,因而在此背景下,中国尤其需要注意面对复杂、具有激烈竞争力的地缘政治经济形势。此外,就日本而言,在全球经济一体化进程中,从其经济利益立场来看,由于其制造业发展优势与金融业优势均会呈现逐渐面临弱化之势,因此在未来地缘经济立场中,其与欧美等发达国家并非一可能致,这一点需要引起相关利益主体的重视。最后尤其需要关注的是,就中国、俄罗斯和印度来看,这三个国家在地缘经济立场上具有较为一致性,而这似乎也与当前这三个国家在全球地缘政治问题上的具有较多共同性观点较为吻合。这一结论建立了地缘政治分析的一个基础。此外,在本研究取得一些重要发现的同时,其仍然在如下方面存在继续改进之处,如在考虑区域最终需求结构变化的差异、企业行为规则建模、模拟数据和真实数据的比较以及多区域技术创新与扩散对各个地区各个产业部门的碳排放转移等。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the global economic growth is facing a severe challenge and highlights the problem of climate change, and actively promote regional technological innovation to speed up the attention of upgrading of the industrial structure and the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction are all the main stakeholders. Under this background, this paper applied science and Computing technology to influence on technological innovation and diffusion of multi region on the global economy growth and carbon emission reduction, the purpose is to make the calculation more realistic geographical and policy significance. The application of geographical calculation method developed a number of regional economic growth and diffusion of technology innovation policy simulation system, and the simulation analysis of its application in the global industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer policy. In the content model, the evolution of economic theory based on introducing based on agent-based modeling (Agent-based simulation ABS) calculation method of geography, the micro scale enterprises The space industry technology innovation and diffusion behavior of various countries and regional scale industrial structure evolution and analysis of carbon emissions transfer linked through evolution, construct a starting from a large number of heterogeneous firms, the simulation model of regional industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer. Secondly, in the methodology, from the perspective of software engineering point of view, this thesis designs and develops a multi regional economic growth and technological innovation diffusion policy simulation system and its application in related policy simulation analysis, in order to provide scientific decision-making support for the stakeholders. Specifically, in the model, this paper has constructed the endogenous technology innovation mechanism based on macro and micro enterprises the economic industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer model, so as to explore the innovation spatial diffusion driven by multi regional industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer process. Agent modeling based on the principle of using the bottom-up modeling structure, divided into two levels, including the various regional macro scale (National) economic structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer and micro scale enterprise technology innovation and diffusion behavior, including micro enterprises changes will promote and drive the regional economic structure evolvement and regional carbon the transfer of emissions. In addition based on the development mode of technology innovation is put forward by Schumpeter, the model of technological innovation is divided into product innovation and process innovation, and a detailed description of the innovation behavior of different types of enterprises, technological innovation behavior of heterogeneous firms is given how to promote cross regional production factors and resources, cross sectoral flow well, driven by the overall macroeconomic structure evolution and carbon emissions transfer geographic analysis framework to explain. In methodology, taking into account the geographical simulation Have significant advantages in the simulation of complex geo spatial evolution mechanism on the platform, this study based on the Matlab software combined with the visual development platform Visual Studio, using C and programming language to the further development of the regional economic growth and technological innovation diffusion of geographical simulation system, and the simulation analysis of its application in the global industrial structure and evolution carbon emissions transfer policy. In the application, through the construction and design of the ABS system has the geographical background of policy simulation, this study found that: in the process of technology innovation situation, most of the region (state) of the first and third industry output share declined, while the share of employment will decline when only. The product technology innovation in various parts of the enterprise, the area of the first and third industry output share rise phenomenon, while the second industry The output share showed a downward trend. The mixed mode of technological innovation significantly conducive to promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in developing countries, while in developed economies, the manufacturing industry and the heavy industry of the second industry, will significantly reduce its in the whole national economy share of output, but will to improve the share of employment to a certain extent. In addition, the need to pay attention to is, compared with the process of technological innovation, technological innovation and more conducive to promoting the mixed development of the industrial structure to the second industry and the third industry optimization. Compared with the process of technological innovation in product technology innovation situation, context transfer in various countries and regions of carbon space there are different degrees of decline in growth rate and growth rate. In the hybrid technology innovation, for most countries, to further reduce carbon emissions transfer amount Has a certain role. At the same time, and the process of technological innovation, compared with product technology innovation, a hybrid technology innovation by improving the production process and improve energy efficiency, thereby reducing the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of product output, on the other hand, by improving product technology generation so as to speed up the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, the industrial structure from the relative low efficiency, high energy consuming industries to relatively high efficiency, low energy consumption and the transformation of industrial structure, so as to change the corresponding region of import and export trade structure, the interaction between the two parties, which can effectively reduce the carbon emissions of each country or region transfer. Therefore, in the policy level, the various stakeholders need to attract attention is that in order to reduce the various countries and regions caused by trade transfer effect on the carbon emission reduction responsibility, carry out technological innovation especially the enhancement of mixing technology Technology innovation is an effective method which can be taken. This conclusion is of significance to the management system of carbon emissions. The geographic simulation data and real data show further verification, technical innovation model of mixed mode may be more in line with the future development of the global economy. This paper also further simulate the effect of technological innovation on the transfer of hybrid global industrial structure evolution and carbon emissions. The study found: in the mixed mode of promoting technological innovation, in terms of output structure, the global various countries or regions, the first industrial output will decrease the share of different degrees, and the third industry output share showed an upward trend, and in terms of the second industry output share, in addition to the United States and the European Union and other places, other regions share rise. But in the aspects of employment structure, each country has shown significant differences Such as, for China, the second industry and the third industry employment share will rise, and for Japan, Russia, India and the EU, the second industry employment share will significantly increase, but the third industry employment share showed a weak decline. But it is important to note that, for the United States. The second and third industry employment share decreased to some extent, while the first industry showed a gradual upward trend. Further, the study found that hybrid technology innovation may be more conducive to promoting the industrial structure to the second industry and the third industry adjustment, and promote regional economic development. In carbon emissions transfer, to jointly promote the products the process of technological innovation and technological innovation, these countries and regions of the carbon emission transfer amount continues to increase, which may prove that with the future global industry structure adjustment Continue to accelerate, the producers and consumers of goods in the geographical separation trend may also be increasingly significant. In addition, further specific to the country, the United States, Russia and Chinese outflow, the EU carbon emissions show a decreasing trend, while the inflow of carbon emissions showed a rising trend. But for Japan and India, outflow carbon emissions continue to rise, the inflow of carbon emissions decreased significantly. Finally, in terms of its economic impact, this study also found that in the future regional economic evolution process, the geopolitical dominance can be further strengthened, and with the China by advocating the establishment of Asian investment bank and the independent intellectual property rights of the new economy the policy, to a certain extent will promote the development of the financial industry. But note that this might inevitably challenge to the United States and the European Union and other countries as the leading gold The financial industry and the interests of the state, under this background, China especially need to pay attention to in the face of the complex, with fierce competitive geopolitical economic situation. In addition, the case of Japan, in the process of global economic integration, from the standpoint of economic interests, because of the development of manufacturing industry and the financial industry will be advantage advantage gradually weakened face therefore, in the future economic position, with Europe and other developed countries is not possible, it needs to cause stakeholders attention. Finally, especially need attention, it Chinese, Russia and India, the three countries have more consistency in the geo economic position, and it seems to have with the current of the three countries in the global geopolitical issues have many common views are consistent. This conclusion establishes a basis for geopolitical analysis. In addition, in this study A number of important discoveries, the continuing improvement is still in the following aspects such as the consideration of regional differences in the final demand structure change, enterprise behavior rule modeling, comparison of simulation data and real data and multi regional technological innovation and diffusion of the Department of each industry in each area of carbon emissions transfer.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F113.2
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本文编号：1440809