我国西瓜甜瓜生产及全要素生产率研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 12:31

本文关键词：我国西瓜甜瓜生产及全要素生产率研究　出处：《中国农业科学院》2016年博士后论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以联合国粮农组织数据库、《中国农村统计年鉴》、国家西甜瓜产业技术体系在19个省20个试验站的定点观测数据,以及在河北省开展的重点调研数据为基础,对世界西瓜甜瓜的生产和贸易,我国西瓜甜瓜的生产情况、波动周期、区域布局、国际贸易、价格波动、成本收益以及全要素生产率进行了研究。本文的主要结论是:1、世界西瓜甜瓜产业进入了快速发展时期,生产量和贸易量均达到历史新高,世界各主要生产、贸易国(地区)的生产水平也得到了较大发展。世界西瓜甜瓜的生产主要集中在亚洲,而中国又是世界第一大生产国,2013年分别占世界西瓜甜瓜总产量的66.75%和48.66%。世界西瓜甜瓜最主要的进口国为美国,西瓜最主要的出口国为墨西哥,甜瓜最主要的出口国是西班牙,而中国的进出口量均处于较低水平,与其生产地位严重不相符。2、我国是世界西瓜甜瓜第一生产大国,种植面积、产量居世界首位,单产高于世界平均水平30%。1978-2013年期间西瓜的产量和种植面积均出现了两次较大幅度的增长,第一次是1981-1986年,产量和种植面积的年均增长率分别为14.03%和12.56%,由于同期的单产增长较为平稳,因此产量和面积的增幅较为接近;第二次是1992-2001年,产量和种植面积的年均增长率分别为16.52%和10.01%,由于同期单产保持快速增长的态势,年均增长率达到8.53%,因此产量的增幅明显高于种植面积的增幅。3、按照行政区域划分,西瓜生产集中于河南和山东两省,甜瓜生产集中于新疆、山东和河南三省,其余地区各占全国总量的不足10%。按照优势产区划分,西瓜生产集中于黄淮海(春夏)优势区和长江流域(夏季)优势区,分别占全国总产量的43.09%和31.18%,甜瓜生产集中于黄淮海(春夏)优势区和西北(夏秋)优势区,分别占全国总产量的36.18%和23.23%。4、市场规模效应、市场分布效应和竞争力效应在不同时期对中国西瓜甜瓜出口的作用是不同的:与前一期相比,西瓜市场规模效应在第2期起到了抑制作用,第3期起到了促进作用,说明西瓜国际贸易的规模的逐渐扩大,对中国西瓜的出口起到了积极的推动作用,中国西瓜出口增长对世界市场西瓜进口规模增长的依赖程度增强;竞争力效应在第2期起到了促进作用,第3期起到了抑制作用,说明中国西瓜的国际市场竞争力在下降,可通过促进我国西瓜反季节栽培、优化品种结构、推广节本增效技术等方法提升竞争力;市场分布效应始终为正,但贡献率呈下降趋势,说明中国西瓜出口市场的分布并不合理,应在科学定位的基础上,巩固和加强东南亚市场,积极拓展新兴市场,全方位开拓国际市场。与前一期相比,甜瓜市场规模效应和市场分布效应在第2-4期对出口规模的扩大均起到了促进作用;出口竞争效应在第3期起到了促进作用,第2和4期起到了抑制作用,因此,我国甜瓜出口的发展还需提高出口竞争力。5、西瓜的价格波动具有显著的集聚性,大的市场波动后面往往跟随着大的价格波动,小的价格波动后面经常跟随者小的价格波动,说明西瓜的价格在一定程度上可以预测。西瓜市场不具有高风险的回报性,说明中国西瓜市场的大部分交易者在做决策时,非理性因素大于理性因素,市场应当进一步发展和完善。市场西瓜价格波动具有显著的非对称性,即价格下跌信息引发的波动大于价格上涨信息引发的波动,为稳定西瓜市场,应特别关注引起西瓜价格下跌的因素并采取相应措施。6、西瓜短期供给和弹性长期供给弹性都小于1%,处于比较低的弹性水平,说明西瓜播种面积对价格变动的反应并不敏感,农户根据市场价格来调整播种面积的反应程度较低,大部分农户都是依照往年的播种面积进行生产安排。这表明,我国大部分西瓜种植户就市场价格而言具有一定盲目性,并不太关心市场价格的变化。西瓜当期和滞后一期的价格对需求量有反向的影响,分别为47.5%和33.9%。7、在不同岔口、播种方式、生产方式和品种中,2010-2014年西瓜平均成本收益率最高的依次为春夏茬、嫁接育苗、日光温室栽培、无籽西瓜;甜瓜依次为秋冬茬、嫁接育苗、日光温室栽培、薄皮甜瓜。8、河北省西瓜甜瓜生产2010-2015年期间的综合效率实现了年均29.05%的增长,但出现了-23.78%较大幅度的技术退步,抵消了综合效率的促进作用,使得西瓜甜瓜的全要素生产率年均增长率为-1.6%,整体呈现负增长态势。
[Abstract]:According to the FAO Database, Chinese < Rural Statistical Yearbook > west muskmelon industry technology system in 20 test stations observation data of 19 province, and in Hebei province to carry out the key research data based on the world of watermelon and muskmelon production and trade, production in China, the fluctuation of watermelon and muskmelon cycle, regional distribution, international trade, price volatility, cost income and total factor productivity were studied. The main conclusions of this paper are: 1, watermelon and muskmelon industry in the world has entered a period of rapid development, production and trade volume reached a record high, the main production of world trade country (region) production levels have been a great development. The world of watermelon and muskmelon production mainly concentrated in Asia, and China is one of the world's largest producer, in 2013 accounted for 66.75% of the total output of the world watermelon muskmelon and watermelon sweet world 48.66%. The main importer of melon for the United States, the main watermelon exports to Mexico, the main exporter of muskmelon is Spain, and China import and export volume at a low level, and its production status are not serious.2, China is the world's largest producer of watermelon and muskmelon, planting area, output ranked first in the world the yield is higher than the average level of the world, 30%.1978-2013 during the period of watermelon yield and planting area were two times more substantial growth, the first time is 1981-1986 years, with an average annual growth rate of yield and planting area were 14.03% and 12.56%, due to the same period the yield growth is relatively stable, so the yield and growth in the area is close to second times; is 1992-2001 years, with an average annual growth rate of yield and planting area were 16.52% and 10.01%, due to the same period yield to maintain rapid growth, the average annual growth rate reached 8.53%, the yield of The increase of planting area was significantly higher than that of.3, according to the administrative division, watermelon production concentrated in Henan and Shandong two provinces, muskmelon production concentrated in Xinjiang, Shandong and Henan provinces, the rest of the accounts for less than 10%. of the national total area in accordance with the division of watermelon production in Huang Huai Hai (Chun Xia) (edge area and the Yangtze River Basin summer) area, accounted for 43.09% of total production and 31.18% muskmelon production concentrated in Huanghuaihai region and northwest advantage (Chun Xia) (Xia Qiu) area, accounted for 36.18% of total production and 23.23%.4, market scale, market distribution effect and competitive effect on the export of Chinese watermelon and Muskmelon in different periods of action is different: compared with the previous period, the scale effect of watermelon market in the second period to suppress, third played a role in promoting the show gradually expand the scale of international trade of watermelon, the In watermelon export has played a positive role in promoting, Chinese watermelon export growth on the world market to enhance watermelon import dependence scale growth; competitive effect to promote in the second period, third period to suppress, that China watermelon in the international market competition ability in the fall, can promote our country the watermelon season cultivation, optimize breed structure, promotion of high efficiency technology and other ways to enhance the competitiveness of the market; the distribution effect is always positive, but the contribution rate decreases, indicating the distribution Chinese watermelon export market is not reasonable, should be based on the scientific orientation, consolidate and strengthen the Southeast Asian market, and actively expand the new market, all-round development the international market. Compared with the previous period, muskmelon market scale and market distribution effect in the period 2-4 to expand the scale of export have played a role in promoting the export competition effect in third; Period played a role in promoting the second and 4 period to suppress, therefore, the development of China's export of muskmelon is needed to enhance the export competitiveness of.5, fluctuations in the price of watermelon has significant agglomeration, behind the large fluctuations in the market often with large price fluctuations, small price fluctuations often follow behind the price the small fluctuations, indicating the price of watermelon in a certain extent can be predicted. The return of watermelon market with high risk, most traders Chinese watermelon market when making decisions, the non rational factors than rational factors, the market should be further developed and improved. Watermelon price fluctuations in the market is significantly asymmetric, i.e. price fluctuations caused by the information is greater than the price fluctuations caused by the rise of information, to stabilize the market should pay special attention to watermelon, watermelon prices caused by factors and take corresponding measures to.6, short for watermelon For long-term supply elasticity and elasticity is less than 1%, at a relatively low level of elasticity, watermelon planting area is not sensitive to changes in the price response, farmers according to the market price to adjust the reaction degree of sown area is relatively low, the majority of farmers are in accordance with previous acreage production arrangements. This shows that most of the watermelon in China farmers market prices have certain blindness, not too concerned about changes in market prices. The current and lagged watermelon has a negative impact on demand a price, 47.5% and 33.9%.7 respectively, in different branch mouth, sowing method, production methods and varieties, 2010-2014 annual watermelon yields the highest average cost in spring and summer, grafted seedlings, greenhouse cultivation, seedless watermelon muskmelon; followed by autumn, grafted seedlings, greenhouse cultivation of muskmelon, watermelon and muskmelon production in Hebei province.8, 2010 The comprehensive efficiency of -2015 has increased by an average of 29.05% over the past year. However, a significant -23.78% regression has occurred, which has offset the promotion effect of comprehensive efficiency, making the annual growth rate of total factor productivity of watermelon and melon being -1.6%, showing a negative growth trend as a whole.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士后
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F326.13

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