新疆城市化发展质量时空分异规律研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 16:20

  本文关键词： 城市化 发展质量 时空分异 空间分析 新疆　出处：《石河子大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“十三五”是城市化快速发展的历史时期,更是城市化由规模强度向质量内涵转型的关键节点。如何根据区域资源环境禀赋、生态承载能力和区位地缘条件,发展具有地域特色和分工职能的城镇体系,是提升我国城市化发展质量重大课题。新疆资源优势明显,区位和地缘位置突出重要,是我国重要的战略资源储备区和“一带一路”建设的核心区,新疆城市化健康发展深刻影响着西部国土安全和国际大通道建设。在城市化发展初级阶段,如何总结发达国家和地区城市化发展的成败经验,结合自身在国际、国内及区域分工的地位和作用,通过统筹协调、合理布局、有序发展各级各类城市,提升区域城市化发展内涵质量,对新疆实现跨越发展和长治久安具有重大现实意义。基于此,本文根据城市化发展理论、空间经济学理论、城市化空间发展基础理论及中国城市化空间分异基本规律,结合新疆城市发展区域特点和现实问题,在准确界定城市化发展质量内涵基础上,从人口发展质量、社会发展质量、经济发展质量、生态环境质量、城乡区域协调发展五个维度构建城市化发展质量指标体系,利用熵值法赋权、动态评价、协调模型、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法、空间计量模型等,综合测度了新疆15地州市城市化发展质量,动态分析了近11年新疆城市化空间分异过程、格局,实证研究了新疆城市化空间分异特点及规律,探究了新疆城市化发展空间秩序及分异规律,在借鉴国外典型城市城市化空间发展经验基础上,尝试性提出了提升新疆城市化发展质量的对策建议,为新疆新型城市化建设、实现“新丝绸之路经济带”核心区建设目标提供科学依据。主要结论如下:第一,新疆15地州市城市化发展质量及各维度总体呈现逐年上升趋势,但整体水平较低,增长缓慢,区域差异显著,协调水平较差,阶段性特征明显。凸显新疆城市化发展的政府主导地位,以及随着国家宏观政策变化、城市化发展历史阶段所决定的特点。经济、社会和人口维度是城市化发展质量的主要动力,生态环境和城乡区域协调贡献度偏低,新疆城市化处于传统发展的初级阶段。人口、经济、生态环境维度的差距大于整体差距,而社会、城乡和区域协调发展的差距小于总体差距,并呈扩大趋势;社会、经济、生态环境质量维度以2007年为分水岭,而人口和城乡及区域协调发展维度分别以2008年和2006年为界,各自划分为两个阶段;北疆与东疆、南疆的差距较大,但近几年有缩小趋势;11年来15地州市各维度协调水平较差,整体处于失调阶段,且以2007年为界划分为两个阶段。第二,新疆城市化发展质量及各维度层级特征明显,呈现明显的南、北疆空间差异格局,且以天山北坡经济带为核心向北、南方向逐渐递减的“中心-外围”空间分异特征。凸显新疆城市化发展的行政依赖性、交通依赖性和区位依赖性。除了社会和生态环境质量维度外,城市化发展质量及其余维度较低质量层级主要分布在南疆的喀什地区,形成新疆整体发展的“低洼”区域。而较高质量层级集中分布在北疆区域的天山南北坡沿线,尤其是天山北坡中段;各州市城市化发展质量及各维度聚集程度呈减弱趋势。生态环境和社会发展质量维度呈随机分布,人口、经济、城乡和区域协调发展维度与城市化发展质量格局及空间分异特征相似且聚集特征显著,呈现南、北疆空间分异格局;各维度中只有生态环境与城市化发展质量关联性有上升趋势,且经济发展质量较好地区对应较低的生态环境质量。第三,新疆各地州市与相邻区域之间的空间效应从扩散或溢出效应到空间相互作用,且不同时期影响城市化发展质量空间分异的因素各有侧重。从2004年的空间滞后模型到2014年的空间误差模型的显著性,表明各地州之间的空间效应从空间扩散效应转换为空间联系;2004年,人口因素、交通区位、政府政策及地区间空间溢出效应是城市化发展质量空间分异的主要因素,而资源的过度依赖及较低的经济发展水平制约了城市化发展质量;2014年,资源禀赋、经济发展水平、人口因素、交通区位及相邻地区间的联系强弱是城市化发展质量空间分异的主要影响因素,而水资源的约束和缓慢的城市化进程,交通运输发展滞后以及政府的过度干预等影响城市化可持续发展;人口因素中的人口素质指标和交通区位中的通讯设施指标始终是城市化发展质量空间分异的主要因子。基于上述研究结果提出:新疆应围绕国家“一带一路”核心区建设战略目标,抓住新型城市化建设历史机遇,立足新疆在经济全球化和区域一体化时期的地缘区位和通道走廊优势,科学发展、合理布局各级各类城镇,完善优化城镇地域体系和空间结构,培育现代城镇功能和互联互通网络;重点建设北、中、南三条国际化大通道上的节点城市——国际、国家及地方性枢纽城市,把乌鲁木齐市、喀什市、霍尔果斯口岸等建成新疆新型城镇化建设的国际化都市(群),通过城市基础设施、公共服务及实体经济、服务贸易与“一带一路”的互联互通、有机融合,来支撑、辐射和提升新疆城市化发展质量和水平;大力发展绿洲生态型中心城镇,建设空间组团或团聚型现代城镇体系,积极培育与生态承载、地域优势和集聚规模相适应的城市经济功能和要素,并将其有机地融入国际化都市建设中,形成经济分工与社会职能、人口集聚与生态承载彼此协调、互利共生的城市化空间发展秩序。
[Abstract]:13th Five-Year is the rapid development of city history, it is the city of the key nodes of the transition from scale strength to quality connotation. According to the regional resources and environment resources, ecological carrying capacity and regional geopolitical conditions, development with regional characteristics and the division of functions of the urban system, improve the quality of development is the major issue in our city. Xinjiang resource advantages, location and geographical location is important, the core area of our country's important strategic resources reserve and The Belt and Road "construction of Xinjiang City, the healthy development of a profound impact on the construction of western country security and international channels. In the city of the primary stage of development, how to summarize the city of developed countries and regions the development of success experience, combined with their status and role in the international, domestic and regional division, through coordination, reasonable layout, orderly development of all types of city,. L quality development connotation of regional city, is of great practical significance for Xinjiang to achieve leapfrog development and long period of stability. Based on this, according to city development theory, spatial economics theory, theory of differentiation of basic rules of city space development foundation and the Chinese city space, combined with the practical problems and characteristics of Xinjiang City Development Zone, the accurate definition of city based on the connotation of the quality of development, population development quality, the quality of the social development, the quality of economic development, ecological environment, urban and rural regional development in five dimensions to build city development index system of the quality of coordination, by the method of entropy weighting, dynamic evaluation, coordination model, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) method, spatial econometric model etc. a comprehensive measure of the quality of development, 15 prefectures of Xinjiang City, the dynamic analysis of the space of Xinjiang city in the past 11 years the differentiation process, pattern, empirical study Distribution characteristics and rules of Xinjiang city space, explores the spatial order of Xinjiang city development and differentiation, in reference to foreign typical city urbanization development space on the basis of the experience, try to put forward suggestions to improve the quality of development of Xinjiang City, for the construction of new city of Xinjiang, "to provide a scientific basis for the goal of building the new economic zone core area of the silk road. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the quality of development of Xinjiang city in 15 prefectures and the dimensions of the overall rising year by year, but the overall level is low, slow growth, significant regional differences, coordination level, significant stage characteristics. The government position highlights the development of Xinjiang city and, with the national macro policy changes, the historical stage of development characteristics of the city. The economic, social and demographic dimensions is the main power of city development quality, ecological The environment and urban regional coordination degree of contribution is low, Xinjiang city is in the primary stage of traditional development. Population, economy, ecological environment dimension is greater than the overall gap gap, and the society, the coordinated development of urban and regional disparity is less than the overall gap, and the tendency to expand; Society, economy, ecological environment quality dimensions in 2007 as a watershed, while the population in urban and rural areas and regional coordinated development dimensions respectively in 2008 and 2006, each divided into two stages; the northern and southern Xinjiang, the gap is large, but in recent years a narrowing trend; 11 years all the dimensions of the 15 cities coordination level is poor, disorders in the stage of the whole, and in 2007 for the sector is divided into two stages. Second, the quality of development of Xinjiang city and the dimensions of hierarchical characteristics, presents the obvious differences in the spatial pattern of the south, and the Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain as the core to the north, South to gradually Decreasing the "center periphery" spatial characteristics. Administrative dependence highlights the development of Xinjiang City, traffic dependent and location dependent. In addition to the social and ecological environment quality dimensions, city development and quality more than lower dimensional quality level is mainly distributed in the southern region of Kashi, the formation of the overall development of Xinjiang "the low-lying area. While the higher quality levels are mainly distributed in the northern region along the South and North Slope of Tianshan Mountain, especially the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang; the quality of development of city states and the dimensions of the aggregation degree decreased. The dimensions of quality of ecological environment and social development is a random distribution of population, economy, coordinated development of urban and regional dimension and city the quality of development patterns and spatial differentiation characteristics are similar and accumulation characteristics significantly, showing differentiation pattern in the south, in the dimensions of space; only the ecological environment and city development quality Association of a rising trend, the quality of the ecological environment and economic development in the area of good quality corresponding to low. Third, between the cities and prefectures in Xinjiang and adjacent areas from the diffusion space effect or spillover effects to the spatial interaction, and the development of city space quality factors of different period differentiation have focused on the significant spatial error. Model from 2004 to 2014, the spatial lag model, show that the spatial effect of each region from the effects of spatial diffusion into space; in 2004, demographic factors, traffic location, government policies and inter regional spatial spillover effect is the main factor to the development of city space quality difference, and excessive dependence and more resources the low level of economic development has restricted the development of city quality; 2014, resource endowment, economic development level, population factors, traffic location and adjacent areas between the contact strength of the city The main factors affecting the quality of development of spatial differentiation, limited water resources and slow city urbanization, transportation development lags behind and excessive government intervention affect the sustainable development of city facilities; index of population factors in population quality index and traffic location in communication is always the main factor of the development of city space quality the difference is proposed. Based on the above research results: Xinjiang should focus on the strategic goal of building the country "The Belt and Road" core area, the construction of a new city to seize the historical opportunity, based in Xinjiang in the geographical location and corridor advantage, economic globalization and regional integration in the period of scientific development, reasonable layout of various towns, optimizing urban system and regional spatial structure, cultivating modern urban functions and interconnection networks; key construction in the city, north, South three joint international passage - International, national and regional hub city, Urumqi City, Kashi City, Huoerguosi port completed the construction of new urbanization Xinjiang international city (Group), the city infrastructure, public services and the real economy, service trade and "The Belt and Road" organic integration, interoperability, support, and radiation to enhance the quality and level of development of Xinjiang city; vigorously develop urban oasis ecological construction center, space group or agglomerated modern towns, and actively cultivate and ecological carrying capacity, regional advantage and agglomeration scale and adapt the city economic functions and elements, and the organic integration into the international metropolis construction, the formation of economic division of labor and social functions. The concentration of population bearing coordination and ecological development of city space, the order of mutualism.

【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.27
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本文编号：1448861