中国城市规模、效率与经济增长研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 23:29

  本文选题：城市规模　切入点：聚集效应　出处：《山东大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,我国城市获得了快速发展,城市体系不断完善,城市布局日趋合理,城镇人口进一步聚集的趋势明显,城市规模不断扩大。城市规模扩大带来的聚集经济效应主要有两个,分别是地方化经济和城市化经济。地方化经济是产业内规模经济,其主要源于专业化分工带来的生产效率的提高,劳动力市场共享带来的企业招聘成本和劳动力搜寻成本的降低以及产业内的知识共享和溢出等。城市化经济是产业间的规模经济,主要表现为公共产品供给的经济性以及产业间的协同和知识溢出等。随着城市规模的扩大,城市聚集经济效应不断显现,完善的市政设施、便捷的通讯手段、发达的交通工具和高智力的管理阶层,使城市有着很高的运转效率,带来城市经济快速地增长。我国城市化进程在取得长足进步的同时也暴露出一些突出问题,例如城市化发展方式粗放、盲目发展、过度发展,导致耕地占用过多、水资源短缺、环境污染严重,城市自然承载力下降明显。与此同时,城市人口规模的不断扩大伴随着住房紧张、交通拥堵、就业困难等社会问题的产生,个别城市呈现出明显的“拥挤迹象”。通勤成本增加、生产生活成本提高、生态环境问题突出,这些均严重影响了城市效率,进而阻碍了城市的经济增长。城市规模、效率与经济增长彼此依存、相互影响,既存在一定的矛盾性,又有内在的一致性,它们之间的联系正受到政府决策部门和国内外学者的日益关注。本文以新经济地理学模型和思想为基础,选取我国地级及以上城市为样本,在对城市规模特征进行分析的基础上,研究了城市规模增长的影响因素,分析了城市规模与城市效率之间的关系,构建计量模型讨论了城市规模、效率与经济增长之间的关系,从经济增长的视角估算了我国城市的最优规模,最后,从城市规模形成、城市效率提升以及城市经济增长三个方面为我国城市化发展道路提出了一些对策建议。主要研究结论有以下四点：第一,两个城市模型主要解释了小城市向大城市的人口迁移现象,单中心城市模型主要解释了二元经济结构下农村人口向城市迁移的现象。两个模型均表明本地市场效应和生活成本效应是城市规模不断扩大的聚集力,拥挤效应是城市规模不断扩大的分散力。第二,城市规模影响因素的分析结果表明,区位因素对于城市规模具有一定的影响,大规模城市相对于中小规模城市而言,其受区位因素的影响更为明显,但这种影响正变得不太显著；资源禀赋对中等城市规模的增长影响显著,而对小城市和大城市影响不显著；城市发展水平对于城市规模的增长影响显著,其中,市场规模的影响随着城市规模的增长逐渐下降,第二产业对于较小城市规模的增长作用明显,而第三产业对于大城市规模扩张的作用明显；公共基础设施是城市规模增长的基础,影响较为稳定,在经济发展水平相对较高的东、中部地区作用更为显著；城市规模越大,城市收入水平的影响越显著,与东部地区城市相比,中、西部地区城市的高收入更能吸引劳动力的迁移和定居；人力资本投资能有效推进城市规模的增长,城市规模越大,人力资本投资的作用越明显,初级人力资本和中级人力资本是知识得以溢出的基础且流动性不强,对于城市发展一直起着较为稳定的重要作用。第三,城市效率特征及其影响因素的分析结果表明,我国地级及以上城市的总体城市效率处于中等水平,大部分城市效率水平不高,距离理想状态差距较大。城市效率不高的主要原因是城市技术效率的低下,而城市的规模效率比较理想,总体来说,城市效率还有较大的改善空间。我国城市之间存在较强的溢出效应和空间依赖关系,城市效率有显著的空间自相关性。城市规模基于聚集经济效应对于城市效率的提升有显著的作用,此外,人力资本、市场自由度和经济开放度对于城市效率差异也有重要的影响。空间溢出效应对于城市效率的影响有限。第四,城市规模与经济增长关系的分析结果表明,城市规模对于经济增长有明显的促进作用,但他们之间并非简单的线性关系,两者之间存在明显的“倒U型”关系,即存在最优城市规模,其聚集效应带来的经济总量最大。城市规模对于经济增长的影响存在一定的门槛效应。综合城市规模对于经济增长影响的两个门槛值以及最优城市规模,我们可以把城市规模对于经济增长的影响分成四个阶段。相比于已有文献,本文的创新主要体现在以下三个方面：第一,基于新经济地理学模型,考虑到我国典型的二元结构特点,结合诸多学者的补充完善以及研究成果,建立了两个城市模型和单中心城市模型,从理论上解释了城市规模形成和发展的机制,并采用面板分位数回归方法实证分析了城市规模的影响因素。第二,在对城市效率进行评价的基础上,分析了城市效率的空间分布特征和时间演变特征,采用空间计量方法检验了城市效率的空间溢出效应并研究了城市效率的影响因素,利用0-B分解确定了城市效率各影响因素的重要程度,阐述了城市规模与城市效率之间的关系。第三,采用动态GMM方法分析了城市经济增长的影响因素,在此基础上确定了最优城市规模,结合城市规模对于城市经济增长的门槛值,确定了城市聚集效应发展的四个不同阶段。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, our country city gained rapid development, and constantly improve the system of city, city layout is reasonable, the urban population further accumulation trend obviously, the enlargement of city scale. The expansion of the city there are two main effects of agglomeration economies, which are local economy and city economy. The local economy is the economy of scale in the industry, the main source for the specialization of production efficiency, reduce the labor market share from enterprise recruitment cost and labor cost of search and intra industry knowledge sharing and overflowing. City economy is the economic scale between the industry, mainly for the supply of public goods in the economy and inter industry collaboration and knowledge spillovers. With the expansion of city size, city agglomeration economy effect continue to appear, complete facilities, convenient communication means, developed The transportation and high intelligence management, the city has a very high efficiency, bring the rapid growth of city economy. Our city has made great progress in the process also exposed some problems, such as the city of the extensive mode of development, blind development, excessive development, the land occupied too much, the shortage of water resources, serious environmental pollution, city natural bearing capacity decreased. At the same time, the city population size continues to expand with the housing shortage, traffic congestion, employment difficulties and other social problems, individual city shows obvious "crowded signs". Increasing commuting costs, production costs increase, the problem of ecological environment. These are serious impact on the efficiency of city, which hindered the economic growth of the city. The city scale, the efficiency of economic growth and interdependence, mutual influence, there are some contradiction, Have internal consistency, the relationship between them is increasingly concerned government departments and scholars at home and abroad. Based on the model of new economic geography and ideology, select China's prefecture level city as the sample, based on the characteristics of city scale analysis, study the influence factors of city scale growth and analyzed the relationship between city scale and city construction efficiency, discussed the city scale measurement model, the relationship between efficiency and economic growth, from the view of economic growth to estimate the optimal scale, our country city finally, formed from the city scale, city and city to enhance the efficiency of economic growth in three aspects, puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the path of development of city of our country. The main conclusions are the following four points: first, second city model mainly explain the migration of small city to the city's population, single Center city model mainly explains the rural population economic structure of two yuan to the city migration phenomenon. Two models showed that the effect of the local market and the cost of living effect is the city continues to expand the scale of aggregation, the crowding effect is dispersion of the enlargement of city scale. In second, the city scale influence factor analysis results show that the location factors have certain impact on the city scale, city scale relative to the small city, the influence of location factors is more obvious, but this effect is less significant; effects of resource endowment on medium scale city growth significantly, but had no significant effects on the small and big city; city development level for city scale growth significantly, which affect the size of the market gradually decreased with the growth of the city scale, the second industry for smaller scale of city growth Obviously, while the third industry for the expansion of the scale of the big city obviously; the public infrastructure is the foundation of city scale growth, effect is relatively stable, relatively high level of economic development in the East, the central region is more significant; the larger size of the city, city income level is more significant, compared with the eastern part of the city. In high income, city of the western region to attract more labor migration and settlement; human capital investment can effectively promote the growth of city scale, city scale is larger, the effect of human capital investment is more obvious, the primary and secondary human capital is the foundation of knowledge spillover and liquidity is not strong, for city development always plays an important role in the stable. In third, the city's characteristics and factors affecting the efficiency of the analysis results show that the overall efficiency of China's city level and above the city In the middle level, most of the city efficiency level is not high, from the ideal state gap. The main reason for the city efficiency is not high city technical efficiency is low, and the city scale efficiency is relatively ideal, the overall efficiency of city there is a large room for improvement. There are spillover effects and strong spatial dependencies between our city there are significant spatial autocorrelation, city scale efficiency. Based on the city agglomeration effect has significant effect, for the city to promote the efficiency of human capital market, in addition, freedom and openness of the economy for the city efficiency differences also have important influence. The spillover effect of the city efficiency is limited. Fourth. The analysis results of relationship the scale and economic growth of the city shows that the city scale has obvious promoting effect on economic growth, but they are not simple linear relationship between the two. There was the "inverted U", that is the optimal city size, bring its aggregation effect of the largest economy. The city size threshold effect exists certain impact on economic growth. The city scale for the two economic growth threshold values and the optimal city size, we can put the influence on the city scale economic growth is divided into four stages. Compared to the existing literature, this innovation is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first, the new economic geography model based on the consideration of two yuan structure characteristics of Chinese typical, with many scholars and complement the research results, set up two city model and single center city model that explains the mechanism of the formation and development of city scale in theory, and quantile regression method to analyze the influencing factors of city scale using the panel. Second, in the city Based on the analysis of the efficiency evaluation, the efficiency of city space distribution and time evolution characteristics, using spatial econometric methods to test the spatial spillover effect of city efficiency and study the factors influencing the efficiency of the city, using the 0-B decomposition to determine the efficiency of each city affected by the degree of importance of, this paper describes the relationship between city and city scale efficiency. Third, using the dynamic GMM method to analyze the influencing factors of city economic growth, on the basis of the optimal city size is determined, combined with the city scale for the city's economic growth threshold, determined the four different stages of development of city agglomeration effect.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.2;F124.1
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本文编号：1673759