对外开放对我国城市化发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 11:07

  本文选题：进出口贸易 + 外商直接投资　； 参考：《湖南大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：目前,关于中国城市化问题的研究是众多经济学和政策制定者所关注的焦点话题之一。诺贝尔经济学奖得主、美国经济学家约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨曾说,21世纪对世界影响最大的有两件事:一是美国高科技产业,二是中国的城市化。党的十八大报告提出,坚持走中国特色新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化道路。在十八届三中全会、2014年《政府工作报告》以及《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)》中,政府不断强调,积极稳妥的新型城镇化是稳定经济增长的最大动力之一,要坚持走中国特色新型城镇化道路,推进以人为核心的城镇化。传统的城市化理论认为,一个地区的城市化是国内经济系统发展的一个“自然历史过程”。随着经济全球化的迅速发展,学者们开始关注对外开放对一个地区城市化进程的影响。因此,研究对外开放对中国城市化发展的影响,并探索如何利用对外开放推进中国城市化的发展是一个非常有现实意义的课题。鉴于此,本文以中国31个省市和284个地级城市面板数据为样本,基于国际贸易理论、国际投资理论和城市化相关理论,研究对外开放对城市化发展的影响。首先,对中国进出口贸易、外商直接投资与新型城市化发展水平的现状进行分析。近年来,我国进出口的区域分布变化不大,东部沿海地区是我国进出口市场的主要聚集地,其次是中部地区,最后是西部地区。虽然我国FDI大都集中在东部沿海地区,中部地区流入的FDI少一些,西部地区更少(重庆与成都除外),但是部分FDI开始向中部地区或西部地区转移。新型城市化水平比较高的城市主要分布在京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、长株潭城市群以及广东与福建的部分城市,然后中部地区的部分城市,最后是西部地区的城市。就全国层面而言,我国新型城市化水平呈倒“U”型的走势,整体城市化水平先是上升,然后又出现下降。其次,在二元经济模型的基础上构建理论框架和计量模型,以我国284个地级及以上城市2003~2013年的城市面板数据研究了进出口贸易对城市化的影响。其结果显示,进口贸易与出口贸易均显著有利于人口城市化水平提高,且二者的作用效果基本一致;进出口贸易总额对人口城市化的综合影响显著为正,且这一综合影响效果显著高于单纯出口与进口影响总和。分地区的研究结果显示,各地区出口额与进口额对人口城市化影响均显著为正,且在东部和西部地区出口对城市化的作用大于进口,而在中部地区进口的作用则大于出口;进出口贸易对西部地区城市化的综合影响最大,东部次之,中部最小。进一步通过考察进出口贸易对人口城市化不同分位点的边际效应及其变化趋势发现,随着人口城市化分位数的提高,进口和出口贸易均呈现先增后降的发展趋势,且进口对城市化边际贡献的拐点出现在25%的分位点,而出口对城市化边际贡献在75%分位点处;进出口贸易对城市化的综合边际效应呈现先降后增的u型发展趋势。此外,本文还进一步研究进出口贸易对新型城市化指数的影响,结果显示:进出口贸易对城市化的综合作用比单纯出口和进口的影响效果更明显,且出口的作用效果明显大于进口,出口对新型城市化水平的影响由东向西依次递减,进口的作用在中部地区最大、东部次之、西部最小。进出口贸易综合作用由东向西依次递减。进一步的分位数回归结果显示,随新型城市化指数分位点提高,出口贸易的参数估计均显著为正且基本呈递增趋势;进口贸易对各分位点新型城市化水平的影响先增后减,且仅在25%、50%及75%分位点显著;进出口贸易对各分位点新型城市化水平的综合促进作用均大于出口或进口时的情况,且随分位点增加,其边际贡献不断提高。然后,根据我国省际数据,采用动态面板模型研究对外贸易结构对城市化发展的影响。其结果显示,无论是静态还是动态面板数据模型分析均得出对外贸易结构的改善能显著的促进我国总体、东部地区、中部地区以及西部地区的人口城市化进程。此外,以新型城市化指标为被解释变量时,其实证结果显示,对外贸易结构的改善有利于促进新型城市化、经济城市化、空间城市化以及社会城市化的发展,尤其在东部地区最为显著。而在中部地区对外贸易结构只有在10%的显著性水平下对空间城市化产生显著的影响,对社会城市化的影响不显著。在西部地区对外贸易结构对新型城市化的影响主要体现在对经济城市化和人口城市化的促进作用上,而对空间城市和社会城市化的影响不显著。接着,分析FDI影响城市化进程的作用机理,并构建计量经济模型,实证研究FDI流入对我国城市化进程的影响。其实证结果显示:在全国样本下,FDI流入会对城市化水平产生显著的正向作用。在分地区样本下,在东、中、西部地区,FDI流入都会显著性推动城市化进程,就影响效果而言,东部地区的系数大于中部地区的,而中部地区的系数又大于西部地区的。分位数回归结果显示,随城市化分位点增加,FDI对城市化的边际贡献由低分位数向高分位数不断降低,这说明与城市化水平较高城市相比,城市化率较低的城市其FDI流入对它的城市化进程具有更大的推动作用。随着城市化率的提高,FDI的这种正向作用在下降。此外,本文也进一步研究FDI对新型城市化指数的影响,结果显示:在全国样本下,FDI流入会对新型城市化水平产生显著的正向作用。在分地区样本下,在东、中、西部地区,FDI流入都会显著性推动城市化进程,就影响效果而言,也是由东向西逐渐下降的。分位数回归结果显示,各分位点上,FDI的参数估计均显著为正且较为稳定。最后,根据相关研究结论,本文从进出口在城市化推进中的互补性、进出口贸易质量、提高外资综合优势和利用效益、优化进出口贸易和外商直接投资结构、因地制宜地制定对外开放和城市化政策等方面提出对策。
[Abstract]:At present, the research on the urbanization of China is one of the topics that many economists and policymakers pay attention to. Nobel Economics Prize winner and American economist Joseph Stiglitz once said that there were two things that had the greatest impact on the world in twenty-first Century: one is the high-tech industry in the United States, the two is China's urbanization. The party's eighteen is the eighteen. The government insists on the road of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics. In the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, 2014, the government work report and the national new urbanization plan (2014-2020 years), the government continued to emphasize that the positive and stable new urbanization is one of the biggest driving forces to stabilize the economic growth. The traditional urbanization theory holds that the urbanization of a region is a "natural historical process" for the development of the domestic economic system. With the rapid development of economic globalization, scholars begin to pay attention to the influence of opening to the outside world on the process of a regional urbanization. Therefore, the study of the impact of opening to the outside world on the development of China's urbanization and exploring how to make use of the opening to the outside world to promote the development of China's urbanization is a very realistic subject. In view of this, this paper is based on the international trade theory, international investment theory and urbanization based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China and 284 cities. First, the current situation of China's import and export trade, foreign direct investment and the development level of new urbanization are analyzed. In recent years, the regional distribution of China's import and export has changed little, the eastern coastal area is the main gathering place for China's export market, followed by the central region, In the last part of the western region, although most of China's FDI is concentrated in the eastern coastal areas, there are less FDI inflows in the central region and less in the western region (except Chongqing and Chengdu), but some of the FDI begin to transfer to the central or western regions. The cities with higher urbanization level are mainly distributed in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, The city of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, and some cities in Guangdong and Fujian, and then some cities in the central region, and finally the cities of the western region. As far as the national level is concerned, the level of new urbanization in China is "inverted U", and the overall urbanization level is first rising and then declining. Secondly, it is built on the basis of the two yuan economic model. The theoretical framework and measurement model are used to study the impact of import and export trade on Urbanization Based on the city panel data of 284 cities in China at 2003~2013 level and above. The results show that both import and export trade are significantly beneficial to the improvement of population urbanization, and the effects of the two are basically the same; the total amount of import and export trade is to the population. The comprehensive impact of urbanization is significantly positive, and the effect of this comprehensive impact is significantly higher than the total effect of export and import. The effect of the mouth is greater than the export; the import and export trade has the most comprehensive influence on the urbanization of the western region, Higashibe Jinno and the middle part. Further, the import and export trade is first found that the marginal effect of import and export trade on the different sub sites of population urbanization and the trend of its change show that the import and export trade are first presented with the increase of the number of urbanization in the population. The inflexion point of the marginal contribution to urbanization is at the 25% point, while the export to the marginalization of the urbanization is at the 75% point, and the comprehensive marginal effect of import and export trade to urbanization first decreases and then increases the U-shaped trend. In addition, this paper further studies the import and export trade to the new urbanization. The results show that the effect of import and export trade on urbanization is more obvious than that of export and import, and the effect of export is obviously greater than that of import. The effect of export on the new urbanization level is decreasing in turn from east to west. The role of import is the largest in the middle and central regions, Higashibe Jinno, the west is the smallest. The further quantile regression results showed that with the increase of the new urbanization index, the estimation of the export trade parameters were both positive and basic, and the effect of import trade on the new urbanization level of each site first increased and then decreased, and was only at 25%, 50% and 75% points. The comprehensive promotion effect of export trade on the new urbanization level of each sub site is greater than that of export or import, and its marginal contribution is increasing with the increase of the sub loci. Then, according to China's inter provincial data, the dynamic panel model is used to study the influence of foreign trade structure on the development of urbanization. The analysis of dynamic panel data model shows that the improvement of foreign trade structure can significantly promote the population urbanization process in China, Eastern, central and western regions. In addition, with the new urbanization index as the explanatory variable, the results show that the improvement of foreign trade structure is beneficial to the promotion of new cities. The development of urbanization, urbanization and social urbanization, especially in the eastern region, is the most significant. In the central region, the foreign trade structure has a significant impact on the spatial urbanization only under the 10% significant level, and the influence on the social urbanization is not significant. In the western region, the foreign trade structure is a new urbanization. The influence is mainly reflected in the promotion of Economic Urbanization and population urbanization, but not significant to the influence of the spatial city and the social urbanization. Then, it analyzes the effect mechanism of FDI on urbanization process and constructs a econometric model to empirically study the influence of FDI inflow on the process of urbanization in China. Under the national sample, the inflow of FDI will have a significant positive effect on the urbanization level. Under the sub regional samples, in the East, middle and western regions, the influx of FDI will significantly promote the urbanization process. In terms of the effect, the coefficient of the eastern region is greater than that of the central region, and the coefficient of the central region is greater than that in the western region. It shows that the marginal contribution of FDI to urbanization increases from low quantile to high quantile with the increase of urbanization point, which shows that compared with the city with higher level of urbanization, the inflow of FDI in cities with lower urbanization rate has a greater impetus to its urbanization process. With the increase of urbanization rate, the positive effect of FDI In addition, the effect of FDI on the new urbanization index is further studied. The results show that the influx of FDI will have a significant positive effect on the new urbanization level under the national sample. Under the sub regional samples, the flow of FDI in the East, middle and western regions will significantly promote the urbanization process, and the effect is also caused by the effect. From the east to the west, the quantile regression results show that the parameters of FDI are significantly positive and stable on each of the sub sites. Finally, according to the relevant research conclusions, this paper is based on the complementarity of import and export in the urbanization promotion, the quality of import and export trade, the improvement of the comprehensive advantage and benefit of foreign investment, and the optimization of import and export trade and the direct foreign trade. The investment structure is put forward, and countermeasures are put forward for formulating the policy of opening to the outside world and urbanization in line with local conditions.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.2
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本文编号：1810484