南非与其他金砖国家的柑橘贸易研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 05:14

  本文选题：南非 + 柑橘出口　； 参考：《中国农业科学院》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：南非的柑橘产业从一开始就被定位为出口导向型产业。多年来,南非的柑橘产业已经成功地在世界不同的出口国家和地区中占有巨大的市场份额。而这巨大的市场份额是通过突破有着严格贸易限制的不同类型的市场来实现的。近些年来,南非柑橘出口商开始不断寻找新的有良好准入条件市场,并仍取得了丰厚的利润。作为世界柑橘的重要输出国,南非柑橘出口商对金砖国家近年来经济快速增长和人口规模的持续上升所带来的出口机会给予高度关注,出口商们想要获得金砖国家市场的大部分份额。因此,这项研究的目的是通过识别和分析影响柑橘出口量的一系列因素,来评估南非柑橘出口到其他金砖国家的贸易潜力。本研究以1999-2013年的柑橘贸易数据作为分析对象,采用引力模型和时间序列分析法对作为分析方法。通过文献查询,我们了解到引力模型在实证经济学迄今为止最伟大的内容之一,它同时也被证明符合贸易的模型理论,已经被广泛应用于国际贸易研究中。它能够针对贸易国之间相互援助、限制所导致的双边贸易流通问题,做出清晰解析。定量研究结果显示,在当前南非与其他金砖国家的柑橘贸易流通中,有许多阻碍贸易流通的因素。南非出口其他金砖国家的几乎所有的柑橘品种都显示出关税的测度对出口量的减少非常显著。值得注意的是,限制贸易出口的不仅仅是关税,汇率波动也是限制贸易流通的一个主要元素。另一方面,分析显示金砖国家的经济总量和人口也会影响南非的柑橘出口。通过结论总结,对南非与其他金砖国家的柑橘贸易提出一些建议,这将影响到南非柑橘出口战略的制定,并将使得南非的柑橘在金砖国家获得并维持很大的市场份额。对南非柑橘产业来说,要记住的是没有普通消费者,因此应鼓励提高农产品质量以及小农户增加对水果的加工。虽然南非的柑橘产业在业界拥有多元化的出口市场,但还是应鼓励研究其他金砖国家的市场的消费者偏好。为了进一步学习研究,建议把重点放在非关税措施上,如食品安全标准对南非柑橘出口到其他金砖国家的影响。在另一方面,这项研究并没有对加工的产品进行分析,加工产品的分析可能会帮助分析市场份额的亏损互补。因此,南非柑橘产业这项研究也为其他方面的研究提出了更多的信息。
[Abstract]:South Africa's citrus industry has been positioned as an export-oriented industry from the start. Over the years, South Africa's citrus industry has succeeded in taking large market share in different export countries and regions of the world. This huge market share is achieved by breaking through different types of markets with strict trade restrictions. In recent years, South African citrus exporters have been looking for new markets with good market access, and are still making substantial profits. As a major exporter of citrus in the world, South African citrus exporters have attached great importance to the export opportunities of the BRICS countries as a result of their rapid economic growth and continued population growth in recent years. Exporters want most of the BRICS market share. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the trade potential of South African citrus exports to other BRICS countries by identifying and analysing a range of factors affecting citrus exports. In this study, the citrus trade data from 1999 to 2013 were used as the analysis object, and the gravity model and time series analysis were used as the analysis methods. Through literature research, we know that gravity model is one of the greatest contents in empirical economics so far, and it has been proved to be in line with the trade model theory, which has been widely used in the research of international trade. It can provide a clear analysis of bilateral trade flows caused by mutual aid and restrictions between trading countries. Quantitative research shows that there are many obstacles to the current citrus trade flows between South Africa and other BRICS countries. Almost all of South Africa's citrus exports to other BRICS countries show a significant reduction in exports measured by tariffs. It is worth noting that restrictions on trade exports are not only tariffs, but also exchange rate fluctuations are a major constraint on trade flows. On the other hand, analysis shows that the size and population of the BRICS economies also affect South Africa's citrus exports. In conclusion, some suggestions are put forward for South Africa's citrus trade with other BRICS countries, which will affect the formulation of South African citrus export strategy and enable South African citrus to gain and maintain a large market share in BRICS countries. For the citrus industry in South Africa, it is important to keep in mind that there are no ordinary consumers, and therefore should be encouraged to improve the quality of agricultural products and to increase the processing of fruit by small farmers. While South Africa's citrus industry has diversified export markets in the industry, it should be encouraged to study consumer preferences in other BRICS markets. For further study, it is recommended to focus on non-tariff measures, such as the impact of food safety standards on South African citrus exports to other BRICS countries. On the other hand, the study does not analyze processed products, which may help to analyze the complementary loss of market share. Therefore, the South African citrus industry this study also provides more information for other studies.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F313.7;F754.7
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本文编号：1872544