中国能源系统转型及可再生能源消纳路径研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 22:35

本文选题：中国 + 能源系统转型　；参考：《兰州大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：经过近三十多年来的快速发展,中国现在是世界上最大的能源消费和二氧化碳排放国,其碳减排将对全球减排路径和实现国际“气候公约”的目标产生巨大的影响。为应对这一责任,中国承诺在2030年左右达到碳排放峰值,同时使非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到20%左右。与此同时,中国正处于社会经济转型发展的关键时期,面对发展和环保的两难困境,实现经济增长和环境问题的“解耦”成为中国绿色发展的重大课题。其中的关键问题就是如何基于可再生能源实现可持续的能源系统转型。在此背景下,本文做了以下工作:1)梳理了我国能源系统转型的资源基础和背景;借鉴国际上能源系统转型案例,梳理国内节能减排的实践,分析存在的问题,总结对我国未来能源系统转型有益的经验,为后文分析提供基础;2)针对我国应对气候变化的国际承诺,论证了我国碳排放的峰值节点和边界条件。我们假设,当经济增长带来的增排效应与能源结构调整和用能技术进步产生的减排效应达到均衡时,中国碳排放将达到峰点。通过对宏观时间序列数据的分析,运用三种不同的预测模型模拟了中国能源-环境-经济系统变动的趋势和特点,估算出不同变量对能源系统转型的影响,评估了几种实现减排目标的可行情景。3)以可再生能源大省甘肃省为研究对象,应用能源系统模拟模型EnergyPLAN估算了环境优先和经济优先两种情景下,对能源系统转型路径进行了实际案例分析,并提出了在发展和消纳可再生能源时的保障条件。论文得到了以下结论:1.以2005年人均购买力为单位的不变美元价格为计算基础,从1990年到2013年,中国的能源强度从1.59 kgoe/$下降到0.63kgoe/$,清洁能源的份额从4.18%上升到9.61%,在全球碳减排方面发挥了重要作用。在经济发展、能源结构升级和用能技术进步三个变量的不同组合水平下,如果保持经济高速发展(GDP年增长率保持在7.6%以上),则中国在2030年前难以达到峰值。在经济中速发展(GDP增长率以0.05%的年速率递减)的情况下,中国将在2032年和2034年出现三个可实现的排放峰值情景。届时,CO2将达到11155-13205.6万吨,比2013年基准高9.01-29.05%;其他污染物排放将比2013年基准高出5-30%;能源强度的范围为0.219-0.26 kgoe/$,清洁能源份额在17.75-20.54%之间。届时,中国能基本实现其能源转型的初步目标。如果经济低速发展,中国虽能在2030年前达到碳排放峰点,但难以实现全面建成小康社会的目标。2.分析表明在现阶段,技术进步的减排效应远大于结构升级的效应。把能源强度下降作为技术进步的测度,其减排贡献占总量的87.5%,而能源结构升级的减排贡献只有5.0%,其余部分是二者的互作效应。但从长远来看,能源结构升级的作用在逐步增强,并能最终推动能源系统的低碳转型。与发达国家相比,中国具有巨大的节能减排潜力,但需要积极推进能源系统的转型,才可能兼顾经济发展和环境保护两方面的目标。3.甘肃省在现行规划顺利实施的情况下,可在2020年基本上能实现能源系统转型的阶段性目标。到2030年碳排放能够保持在2014年水平上。在近期(2020年),无论是环境优先还是经济优先,两种情景下一次能源消费量(不含电力)差距不大,分别为728.67 TWh和731.96 TWh;非化石能源占一次能源消费份额变化也不大,分别为12.70%和12.60%;可再生能源占电力生产份额达到61.1%,能源系统系统的年均总成本分别为1902.1和1899.4亿元。到2030年,两种情景下的结果差异变大,一次能源消费量(不含电力)分别为694.07 TWh和716.33TWh;非化石能源占一次能源消费份额分别为19.20%和18.70%;甘肃省可再生能源占电力生产份额为63.7%,能源系统系统的年均总成本为2224.5和2214.1亿元。4.在火电角色转入积极调峰角色的情况下,甘肃省在未来2020年到2030年均无过剩电力产生,现行规划中的新增大量可再生能源能被充分消纳。在近期的路径选择上,应着重投资改造供应侧与消费侧的基础设施建设,着重提高供热效率,并保证到2020年和2030年电网建设容量不少于18000MW和32000MW。5.基于以上分析,本文建议:(1)要积极创造条件,促使技术进步和能源结构升级的减排效益的充分发挥,使其超过GDP增长带来的增排效益。要加大投资和政策支持,加快清洁能源的开发,改造高耗能产业,促进技术创新,着力提高能源效率,探索可持续能源系统转型的途径。(2)促进管理体制变革,加强政策调控。使可再生能源企业适应市场机制的运行,实现由国家价格补贴的驱动到自我竞争力提高的平稳过渡。鼓励企业通过降低成本、提高效益来增强生存能力。通过政策引导来可再生能源的降低投资风险、疏通清洁能源的发展瓶颈。(3)完善能源基础设施的建设,建造大规模、远距离、特高压输电线路,把丰富的可再生资源输送到人口产业集中的中东部地区。在资源产地增加储能设备,推进电网的智能化改造,提高调峰填谷的能力。(4)在经济欠发达的西部地区,通过可再生能源的开发利用,将其资源优势转化为经济竞争优势。同时要加快工业结构的调整,扩大热电联产技术的规模,推广节能建筑,有序增加可再生能源的装机容量,推进绿色转型。
[Abstract]:After nearly thirty years of rapid development, China is now the largest energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission country in the world. Its carbon emission reduction will have a great impact on the global emission reduction path and the goal of realizing the international "climate convention". At the same time, China is in the key period of social and economic transformation and development. In the face of the dilemma of development and environmental protection, the "decoupling" of economic growth and environmental problems has become a major issue in China's green development. The key problem is how to base on renewable energy. To realize the sustainable energy system transformation. Under this background, this paper has done the following work: 1) combing the resources basis and background of China's energy system transformation, drawing on the international energy system transformation cases, combing the practice of energy saving and emission reduction at home, analyzing the existing problems, summarizing the useful experience of China's future energy system transformation, for the later article. The analysis provides the basis; 2) in view of our country's international commitment to climate change, the peak nodes and boundary conditions of China's carbon emissions are demonstrated. We assume that China's carbon emissions will reach a peak when the increasing effect of the economic growth and the energy structure adjustment and the emission reduction effects produced by the technological progress will reach the peak. The analysis of inter sequence data, using three different forecasting models to simulate the trend and characteristics of China's energy environment economic system change, estimated the influence of different variables on the transformation of energy system, and evaluated several feasible scenarios to achieve the target of emission reduction, which is based on the Gansu province of renewable energy province, Gansu Province, and applied the energy system model. The quasi model EnergyPLAN estimates the two scenarios of environmental priority and economic priority, and carries out a practical case analysis on the transformation path of the energy system, and puts forward the guarantee conditions for the development and elimination of renewable energy. The following conclusions are obtained: 1. the price of the constant dollar per unit of per capita purchasing power in 2005 is the basis of the calculation, from 1990 From 2013 to 2013, China's energy intensity dropped from 1.59 kgoe/$to 0.63kgoe/$, and the share of clean energy increased from 4.18% to 9.61%, and played an important role in global carbon reduction. At the different levels of economic development, energy structure upgrading and the use of energy technology progress, if the economic growth rate was maintained at a high speed (GDP annual growth rate) Keeping it above 7.6%), China is difficult to reach its peak before 2030. With the economic medium speed development (GDP growth rate decreases at 0.05% annual rate), China will have three possible peak emission peaks in 2032 and 2034. At that time, the CO2 will reach 11155-13205.6 million tons, 9.01-29.05% higher than the 2013 benchmark; and other pollutants emissions will be released. It will be 5-30% higher than the 2013 benchmark; the energy intensity range is 0.219-0.26 kgoe/$, and the clean energy share is between 17.75-20.54%. China can basically achieve its initial target of energy transformation. If the economy develops at low speed, China can reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030, but it is difficult to achieve the target.2. of a well-off society in an all-round way. The analysis shows that at this stage, the emission reduction effect of technological progress is far greater than the effect of structural upgrading. As a measure of technological progress, the contribution of energy intensity decline is 87.5% of the total amount, while the contribution of energy structure upgrading is only 5%, the rest is the mutual effect of the two, but in the long run, the role of energy structure upgrading is in the competition. Bu Zengqiang, and can eventually promote the low carbon transformation of the energy system. Compared with the developed countries, China has great energy saving and emission reduction potential, but it needs to actively promote the transformation of the energy system in order to take into account the goal of two aspects of economic development and environmental protection.3.. In the case of the successful implementation of the current regulations, the Gansu province can basically be in 2020. To achieve the phased goal of the transformation of the energy system. By 2030, carbon emissions can be maintained at the level of 2014. In the near future (2020), whether it is environmental priority or economic priority, the next energy consumption (no power) gap is not large in the two scenarios, 728.67 TWh and 731.96 TWh, respectively; non fossil energy accounts for a change in the share of energy consumption. Not much, 12.70% and 12.60% respectively; renewable energy accounted for 61.1% of the power production share, and the total annual total cost of the energy system system was 1902.1 and 189 billion 940 million yuan respectively. By 2030, the difference in the results of the two scenarios increased, and the primary energy consumption (without electricity) was 694.07 TWh and 716.33TWh, and the non fossil energy accounted for one energy dissipation. The share of the fee is 19.20% and 18.70%, the share of renewable energy in Gansu is 63.7%. The annual total cost of the energy system system is 2224.5 and 221 billion 410 million yuan.4. is transferred to the positive peak role of the thermal power role. In the future, there is no surplus power in the future from 2020 to 2030 in Gansu province. In the near future, we should focus on the infrastructure construction of the supply side and the consumption side, improve the efficiency of heating, and ensure that the capacity of the power grid construction in 2020 and 2030 is not less than 18000MW and 32000MW.5. based on the above analysis. This paper suggests: (1) to actively create conditions to promote technological progress and The emission reduction benefit of the energy structure upgrading is fully played, making it more effective than the GDP growth. We should increase investment and policy support, accelerate the development of clean energy, transform high energy consumption industry, promote technological innovation, improve energy efficiency and explore the way of sustainable energy system transformation. (2) promote management system reform and strengthen politics. Policy regulation. Make renewable energy enterprises adapt to the operation of market mechanism, realize the smooth transition from state price subsidy to self competitive improvement. Encourage enterprises to enhance their survival ability by reducing cost and improving efficiency. Through policy guidance, the investment risk of renewable energy is reduced and the bottleneck of development of clean energy is dredged. (3) Improve the construction of energy infrastructure, build large-scale, long distance, UHV transmission lines, transport rich renewable resources to the Central East region of the population industry. Increase the energy storage equipment, promote the intelligent transformation of the power grid, and improve the ability to adjust the peak and fill the valley in the resource areas. (4) in the economically underdeveloped western region, it can be used again. The development and utilization of raw energy will transform its resource advantage into economic competitive advantage. At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, expand the scale of cogeneration technology, promote energy saving building, increase the installed capacity of renewable energy in order, and promote the green transformation.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.2

【参考文献】