中国羊毛对外贸易及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 01:44

本文选题：羊毛 + 贸易　；参考：《中国农业大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：中国羊毛产业在世界上占有举足轻重的地位,是世界最大的羊毛生产国、加工国和贸易国。尽管如此,中国羊毛产业在国际市场上缺乏竞争力。高度进口依赖和弱国际竞争力导致中国羊毛产业大而不强,使得国内羊毛市场易受国际市场影响。目前,随着贸易自由化推进,中国羊毛市场正处于不断开放进程中。2002年开始按照入世协议对羊毛进口实施关税配额管理,保证以较低的关税进口承诺的配额准入量,为国外羊毛提供了市场准入机会。并且,又分别于2009年和2016年开始按照双边自由贸易协定为两大羊毛进口来源国新西兰、澳大利亚原产羊毛提供了免税国别配额量。中国羊毛市场逐步有计划、有针对地放开不可避免将使国内贸易和产业发展面临进一步的国际市场冲击,因此有必要对中国羊毛贸易及影响因素进行全面深入的研究。本文首先对世界和中国的羊毛生产和贸易情况进行梳理和总结；其次,利用恒定市场份额模型对中国羊毛贸易变动成因进行分析；然后,对中国羊毛进出口贸易的影响因素进行深入研究。具体是利用进口需求模型和引力模型对影响羊毛进口因素进行研究,然后在测算中国羊毛出口竞争力基础上,根据波特钻石模型总结羊毛出口竞争力成因,用引力模型分析其出口影响因素：最后,从羊毛供需潜力视角预期未来中国羊毛贸易变化,并用GTAP模型预测中国-澳大利亚自由贸易协定下中国羊毛贸易的演变趋势。本文对中国羊毛贸易及影响因素的研究,构建了较为完整的分析框架,并进行了有别于既有研究的一些处理和方法运用,不仅能够有效梳理中国羊毛贸易变动原因,而且能够为政府完善羊毛贸易和生产政策提供思路和依据。本文得到的主要研究结论是：(1)世界羊毛生产区域和产量发生较大变化；中国赶超澳大利亚成为世界第一大羊毛生产国,羊毛生产品种和区域结构有所调整：世界羊毛贸易以原毛为主,贸易区域出现变化；中国羊毛持续贸易逆差,主要进口原毛、出口羊毛条。(2)中国原毛贸易逆差扩大是由于国内供应不足和外毛竞争力强促进大量进口,而缺乏竞争力且依赖世界市场带来出口减少；洗净毛贸易逆差波动是由于国内供应不足和外毛竞争力强带来进口增加,同时世界需求增长、出口结构作用和竞争力减弱带来出口有所增长；羊毛条贸易由逆差转为顺差是由于外毛缺乏竞争力导致进口减少,而世界需求增长和竞争力强促进出口大幅增加。(3)从进口来看,中国对主要来源国羊毛的支出显著富有弹性,对主要来源国原毛、洗净毛进口缺乏价格弹性,但羊毛条进口显著富有价格弹性；羊毛进口受到多方面因素影响且不同品种间存在一定差异,其中中国细羊毛产量所占比重和中国绵羊存栏量是影响中国原毛、洗净毛进口的重要变量,而中国羊毛条进口主要受到羊毛条价格影响。(4)从出口来看,仅羊毛条出口具有比较优势和竞争力,但与其他国家出口相似度相对较高;钻石模型各方面因素均有所促进羊毛条竞争力形成：羊毛条出口主要受中国纺织业和经济发展、贸易自由化安排、价格和距离的影响。(5)未来年份中国羊毛进口规模将继续增加,但增幅有所放缓；中澳自贸区建立后,羊毛进口贸易将向澳大利亚集中,羊毛出口将向非主要出口目的地分散；若澳大利亚羊毛大量进口对国内羊毛产业造成损害,中国采取贸易救济措施的可能性不大。
[Abstract]:China ' s wool industry is playing a pivotal role in the world , and is the world ' s largest wool producer , processing country and trade country . Nevertheless , China ' s wool industry lacks competitiveness in the international market . At present , China ' s wool market is in the open process because of its high import dependence and weak international competitiveness .
Secondly , using constant market share model to analyze the cause of China ' s wool trade change ;
This paper studies the influence factors of wool import and export trade in China by using import demand model and gravity model to study the influence factors of wool trade .
China drives Australia to become the world ' s largest wool producer . The wool production variety and regional structure are adjusted : wool trade in the world is dominated by raw wool , and the trade area changes ;
China ' s wool trade deficit is the main import raw wool and the export wool strip . ( 2 ) The expansion of China ' s gross domestic trade deficit is due to the lack of domestic supply and the strong competitiveness of the outer hair to promote a large number of imports , and the lack of competitiveness and dependence on the world market for export reduction ;
The fluctuation of wool trade deficit is due to the shortage of domestic supply and the strong export competitiveness , while the world demand growth , export structure and competitiveness decrease bring export growth ;
The trade of wool tops is changed from deficit to surplus because of the lack of competitiveness of outer hair , which leads to a sharp increase in imports . ( 3 ) In terms of imports , China ' s expenditure on wool in the main source countries is remarkably elastic , and the raw wool of the main source countries is lack of price elasticity , but the wool entry is obviously rich in price elasticity ;
The wool import is influenced by many factors and there is a certain difference among the different varieties , among which the proportion of Chinese fine wool output and the amount of Chinese sheep ' s deposit are the important variables which affect China ' s raw wool and wool import .
After the establishment of the Sino - Australian Free Trade Zone , the wool import trade will be concentrated in Australia , and the wool outlet will be dispersed to the non - main export destination ;
If a large number of Australian wool imports damage the domestic wool industry , China is unlikely to take trade remedies .
【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.6

【参考文献】