能源与环境约束下的中国经济增长：理论探讨与经验研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 11:05

本文选题：能源与环境约束 + 经济增长源泉　；参考：《辽宁大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：“经济增长”是宏观经济学的研究核心,是世界近代经济发展史上极具魅力的研究领域。伴随着人类经济活动规模的扩大和经济环境的复杂化,经济增长理论因循着经济发展实践的需要不断演化,至今,对于经济增长要素及动力源泉的研究依然不断拓展和深化,能源与环境因素也越来越多的被引入到增长分析框架中。能源、经济、环境系统三者之间相互依存、相互影响、相互制约,在可持续的发展空间中,资源与环境不仅是经济发展的内生变量,而且是经济发展规模和速度的刚性约束。改革开放37年来,中国经济高速增长所附带的巨量能源消耗和高昂环境成本致使能源-经济-环境系统发展失调,能源与环境系统对经济系统的反制效应逐渐强化,再加上传统经济增长驱动力的逐渐衰减、制造业技术溢出瓶颈凸显、第三产业技术进步相对滞缓,经济增长的可持续性难以为继。上述背景下,如何科学认识区域能源、经济、环境三大子系统之间的协同互动规律,如何定量解构能源、经济、环境系统的内生关系并估算能源与环境系统对经济增长的反制效应,如何测度能源环境约束下中国经济增长源泉的贡献与变动趋势,如何准确把握不同省份经济增长源泉的构成与变迁,如何加快推动增长源泉动力转换、形成节能减排与经济增长双赢的促进机制等一系列问题已经成为理论界亟待破解的时代命题,这也正是文章的研究主旨和拟解决的关键问题。文章在对中国能源-经济-环境系统发展状况、中国经济增长的特征事实进行详尽刻画的基础上,运用计量经济方法,经验分析与理论探讨、静态分析与动态分析、定性与定量分析方法相结合,围绕关键问题展开研究。所做工作和主要结论如下：中国能源-经济-环境系统发展失衡,系统间耦合协调度低。在对能源-经济-环境系统内生关系进行界定的基础上,分别从时间、空间和部门维度解析了中国三大系统的发展现状,构建能源-经济-环境系统协调度评价指标体系和协调度综合评价模型对中国三大系统耦合协调度进行了定量评价。结论表明：考察时序区间内,能源-经济-环境系统发展整体耦合协调度均值低,处于严重不协调状态的边缘；能源-经济系统发展耦合协调度均值相对较高,处于弱协调状态；环境-经济系统发展的耦合协调度均值极低,处于严重不协调状态。但是,“十二五”时期以来,各协调度指数均呈现出不同程度的回升,初步判断,早期中国经济系统的快速发展并未顾及与环境系统的协调。中国能源与环境系统对经济增长的反制效应逐渐增强,转换经济增长源泉是逆转系统间负反馈作用的关键突破口。根据能源-经济-环境系统的互动内生机理构建了联立方程模型,对中国能源-经济-环境系统的内生关系进行了定量检验与定性分析,并在此基础估算和解析了能源与环境系统对经济增长的反制效应。具体结论是：单位GDP能耗、能源加工转化率、工业化进程中的产业结构演进、城市化水平、经济系统规模、环境系统污染因子的变动均会引起能源消费总量增长；能源消费总量的增长、年终从业人员数、社会固定资产投资均会引起经济系统规模的同方向变化,而环境污染因子变动会引致经济系统规模的反向变化；能源消费结构状态值、工业固体废弃物综合利用率的变动会引起环境污染因子的反向变化,而能源系统和经济系统规模的变动会引致环境污染因子同方向变动；GDP、能源消费总量持续高增长对环境系统产生的负面效应长期累积下来,环境系统对能源系统、经济系统的反制效应逐渐增大。传统要素投入的增长贡献度明显衰减,中国经济增长源泉正在发生结构性转换。在明确能源与环境约束下中国经济增长源泉测度的建模思路、方法选择以及基准经济增长模型的基础上,在内生增长理论框架下,从产出与投入两个层面将能源与环境因素纳入扩展的人力资本溢出模型,通过估计比较所设定的7类情景下各分两种情形的14个计量经济方程的适用性,筛定了强调人力资本内部效应和强调人力资本累积外溢效应的两类模型,对驱动中国经济增长的各类源泉的产出弹性、贡献度、构成与变迁进行了估计、测度和分解。结论表明：能源与环境问题对经济增长的抑制效应日趋显著,能源环境约束下传统要素投入的增长贡献度持续衰减,全要素生产率变动的增长贡献度明显提高,全要素生产率提高的驱动因素构成正在转换等。中国省际经济增长源泉结构差异较大,且阶段性波动明显。采用1990-2014年间的省际面板数据,对各省经济增长源泉进行测度与分解,并对能源与环境约束下省际增长源泉的构成与变动进行了综合比较评价。结论表明：选定的30个样本省份增长源泉构成差距大,在1990-1996年、1997-2008年、2009-2014年三个时段内各类增长源泉贡献度波动明显,物质资本积累依然是推动经济增长的第一大源泉,大部分省劳动投入贡献度下滑,环境投入、创新投入对增长的贡献度明显提升。在对研究过程遇到的主要问题进行反思的基础上,结合理论与实证分析的主要结论,指出培育产业共生网络、形成节能减排与产业结构演进良性互动机制、促进经济增长主要源泉的转换是中国经济突破能源与环境约束、实现节能减排与经济增长双赢、促进能源-经济-环境系统协调发展的根本路径。
[Abstract]:"Economic growth" is the core of the study of macroeconomics. It is a very attractive research field in the history of modern economic development in the world. With the expansion of the scale of human economic activity and the complexity of the economic environment, the theory of economic growth has been evolving on the basis of the need of economic development practice. Research continues to expand and deepen, and energy and environmental factors are increasingly being introduced into the framework of growth analysis. Energy, economy, and environmental systems are interdependent, interdependent, and interdependent. In the sustainable development space, resources and environment are not only endogenous variables of economic development, but also the scale of economic development and the scale of economic development. In the past 37 years of reform and opening up, the huge amount of energy consumption and high environmental costs associated with China's rapid economic growth have resulted in the imbalance in the development of the energy economy environment system. The effect of the energy and environmental system on the economic system is gradually strengthened, and the driving force of traditional economic growth gradually attenuates, and the technology of manufacturing is overflowing. The bottlenecks are highlighted, the third industry is relatively slow in technological progress and the sustainability of economic growth is unsustainable. Under the above background, how to scientifically understand the coordination and interaction between the three subsystems of regional energy, economy and environment, how to deconstruct the endogenous relationship of energy, economy, environmental system and to estimate the economic growth of the energy and environment system How to measure the contribution and change trend of the source of China's economic growth under the constraints of energy environment, how to accurately grasp the composition and change of the source of economic growth in different provinces, how to speed up the dynamic transformation of the source of growth, and form the promotion mechanism of double win of energy saving and economic growth have become a series of problems. On the basis of the detailed description of the development of China's energy economy environment system and the characteristics of China's economic growth, the paper uses econometric methods, empirical analysis and theoretical discussion, static analysis and dynamic analysis, on the basis of the detailed description of the characteristics of China's economic growth. The qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are combined to study the key issues. The work and main conclusions are as follows: the development of China's energy economy environment system is unbalanced and the coupling degree of the system is low. On the basis of the definition of the endogenous relationship in the energy economy environment system, the separation is analyzed from time, space and department dimension. The development status of the three systems and the construction of the energy economic environment system coordination evaluation index system and the coordination degree comprehensive evaluation model are used to evaluate the coupling coordination degree of the three systems in China. The conclusion shows that the overall coupling coordination degree of the energy economic environment system development is low and is in a serious incongruity in the time sequence interval. The coupling coordination degree of the energy economic system development is relatively high, in the weak coordination state, and the coupling coordination degree of the environmental economic system development is very low and is in a serious incoordination state. However, since the "12th Five-Year" period, the co scheduling index has shown a different degree of recovery, preliminary judgment, early China classics The rapid development of the economic system has not taken into account the coordination with the environmental system. The effect of China's energy and environmental system on economic growth is gradually enhanced, and the source of the transformation of economic growth is the key breakthrough in reversing the negative feedback effect of the system. A simultaneous equation model is constructed according to the interaction of energy economy environment system and China. The endogenous relationship between the energy economy environment system is quantified and qualitative analysis is carried out, and the inverse effect of energy and environmental system on economic growth is estimated and analyzed on this basis. The specific conclusions are as follows: unit GDP energy consumption, energy processing conversion rate, industrial structure evolution in the process of industrialization, urbanization level, economic system scale, ring The change of environmental pollution factors will cause the increase of total energy consumption; the growth of the total energy consumption, the number of employees at the end of the year and the investment in social fixed assets will cause the same direction change in the scale of the economic system, and the change of the environmental pollution factor will lead to the reverse change of the scale of the economic system; the state of energy consumption structure, industry The changes in the comprehensive utilization of solid waste will cause the reverse change of the environmental pollution factors, and the changes in the scale of the energy system and the economic system will lead to the change of the environmental pollution factors in the same direction; GDP, the negative effects of the continuous high growth of energy consumption on the environmental system, the environmental system to the energy system and the economy. The anti system effect of the system is gradually increasing. The growth contribution of traditional factor input is obviously attenuated, and the source of China's economic growth is undergoing structural transformation. On the basis of the modeling idea, method selection and the benchmark economic growth model under the constraints of energy and environment, the theory of endogenous growth is based on the theoretical framework of endogenous growth. From the two levels of output and input, energy and environmental factors are incorporated into the extended human capital spillover model. By estimating the applicability of 14 econometric equations in two scenarios under the 7 scenarios set in comparison, two types of models which emphasize the internal effects of human capital and the cumulative spillover effect of human capital are sifting. The output elasticity, contribution, composition and change of various sources of China's economic growth are estimated, measured and decomposed. The conclusion shows that the inhibition effect of energy and environment on economic growth is becoming more and more significant, the contribution degree of the traditional factor input is continued to decline and the contribution of the total factor productivity changes under the energy environment constraints. Obviously, the driving factors of the increase in total factor productivity are changing and so on. The structure of China's inter provincial economic growth source has a great difference, and the phase fluctuation is obvious. Using the interprovincial panel data of 1990-2014 years to measure and decompose the source of economic growth in all provinces and the composition of the source of inter provincial growth under the constraints of energy and environment. The results show that the growth source of the selected 30 sample provinces constitutes a big gap, and the contribution of all kinds of growth sources fluctuates obviously in 1990-1996, 1997-2008, 2009-2014 years and three periods, and the accumulation of material capital is still the first major source of economic growth, and the contribution of most of the provinces is the contribution of labor. On the basis of reflection on the main problems encountered in the research process and the main conclusions of the theoretical and empirical analysis, it is pointed out that the cultivation of the industrial symbiotic network can form a benign interaction mechanism of energy conservation and emission reduction and the evolution of the industrial structure and the main source of economic growth. It is the fundamental path for China's economy to break through the constraints of energy and environment, achieve a win-win situation of energy saving and emission reduction and economic growth, and promote the coordinated development of the energy, economy and environment system.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124

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