从汇率和政策变动看我国贸易减缓的原因

发布时间：2018-06-18 03:42

本文选题：贸易减缓 + 汇率波动　；参考：《对外经济贸易大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：全球经济复苏乏力,国际贸易增长停滞。同时,中国外贸出口形势严峻,不仅受到国际经济萧条、政治格局多变的影响,还有来自国内产业转型升级的供给侧改革的压力。西方国家的反全球化情绪和国际贸易保护主义势力的抬头,也为中国对外经济贸易活动平添了不安的因素。贸易增长的减缓不仅意味着福利的永久损失,而世界贸易的零增长通常还是全球衰退即将到来的信号。近二十多年来,加工贸易出口一直是我国参与全球价值链分工及贸易出口的重要方式和经济增长的重要引擎,为国民就业增长、国际收支平衡、生产率提高等贡献巨大,其稳定发展和有序转型事关国泰民安,以其作为切入点研究中国贸易减缓的影响因素意义重大。本文通过梳理全球贸易减缓的成因及研究范式,对中国贸易减缓趋势产生影响因素从四个方面进行了研判,着重分析了1995年至2015年经济政策不确定和人民币汇率变动对我国贸易部门出口行为的影响,并对国际经贸关系的全球治理格局构建问题进行了评述。外部需求减弱和壁垒性因素构成了全球贸易减缓的周期性的原因,价值链的重构和收缩则成为其结构性的原因,国际间投资行为下的价格及汇率因素则提供了短期动能。中国贸易出口放缓同样受三类因素的影响:一方面,由于中国为最大货物贸易输出国,其内部经济转型调整对进口的需求的下降构成全球需求下降重要的一环;另一方面,我国全球价值链的调整转移和国内替代政策影响下导致的外商主导下的加工贸易的强烈失速是导致中国贸易增长减速的直接原因。贸易政策不确定性的增加(如出口退税的调整、贸易协定退出等),会导致企业择推迟投资和出口决策,对贸易增长造成伤害;而经济政策不确定性不仅影响企业决策,还会通过消费者偏好等途径,影响贸易增长和经济增长的可能,文中实证结果表明其对贸易规模和贸易增速的滞后的负面影响是明显和显著的。汇率升贬变化和波动对贸易出口规模的影响在观点及实证结果不一的重要原因是贸易方式对汇率变动反应不一致所致。本文在分析了加工贸易下汇率传导机制(价格传导和价格效应)的基础上,通过ARDL门限检验实证分析了人民币汇率对我国两种贸易方式下的出口行为的影响,发现汇率变化与波动对一般贸易的影响要明显且显著于对加工贸易的影响。应对全球贸易减缓,就要研究发现其中所反应出的经济结构的变化,并采取相应的制度设计予以配合,而中国在新常态下施行开放新战略,构建国际治理新格局,正是在全球贸易和金融格局急剧变动的环境下做出的有担当的选择。
[Abstract]:The global economic recovery has been sluggish and the growth of international trade has stagnated. At the same time, the serious situation of China's foreign trade export is not only affected by the international economic depression and the changeable political pattern, but also by the pressure of supply-side reform from the transformation and upgrading of domestic industries. The anti-globalization sentiment in western countries and the rise of international trade protectionism have also added unease to China's foreign economic and trade activities. A slowdown in trade growth not only means a permanent loss of welfare, but zero growth in world trade is usually a sign of an impending global recession. In the past twenty years, the export of processing trade has been an important way for our country to participate in the division of labor in the global value chain and the export of trade, as well as an important engine of economic growth. It has contributed greatly to the growth of national employment, the balance of international payments, the improvement of productivity, and so on. Its stable development and orderly transformation are of great importance to the stability of the country and the people's security. It is of great significance to study the influencing factors of China's trade slowdown from the point of view of its entry point. By combing the causes of global trade slowdown and its research paradigm, this paper makes a study of the influencing factors of China's trade slowdown trend from four aspects. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of uncertainty of economic policy and RMB exchange rate change on the export behavior of China's trade sector from 1995 to 2015, and comments on the construction of the global governance pattern of international economic and trade relations. The weakening of external demand and barrier factors constitute the cyclical causes of global trade slowdown, the restructuring and contraction of the value chain are the structural reasons, and the price and exchange rate factors under the behavior of international investment provide short-term kinetic energy. The slowdown in China's trade exports is also affected by three factors: on the one hand, as China is the largest exporter of goods, the decline in demand for imports due to the restructuring of its internal economy constitutes an important part of the decline in global demand. The direct reason for the deceleration of China's trade growth is the adjustment and transfer of global value chain in China and the strong stall of processing trade under the influence of the domestic substitution policy. The increase of trade policy uncertainty (such as the adjustment of export tax rebate, the withdrawal of trade agreement, etc.) will cause enterprises to delay their investment and export decisions, thus harming trade growth, while economic policy uncertainty will not only affect enterprises' decision making. It will also influence the possibility of trade growth and economic growth through the way of consumer preference. The empirical results show that the negative impact on the scale of trade and the lag of trade growth is obvious and significant. The effect of exchange rate fluctuation and fluctuation on the scale of trade exports is due to the inconsistent response of trade mode to exchange rate change. Based on the analysis of the exchange rate transmission mechanism (price transmission and price effect) under processing trade, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate on the export behavior of China under two kinds of trade modes through the ARDL threshold test. It is found that the effect of exchange rate change and fluctuation on general trade is more obvious than that on processing trade. In order to cope with the slowdown of global trade, we should study and discover the changes in economic structure reflected therein, and adopt corresponding institutional design to coordinate it, while China should implement a new strategy of opening up under the new normal state and construct a new pattern of international governance. It is in an environment of dramatic changes in global trade and finance that there are responsible choices.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F752

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