我国区域经济增长收敛性和知识溢出效应检验

发布时间：2017-12-28 20:10

  本文关键词：我国区域经济增长收敛性和知识溢出效应检验　出处：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 区域经济 改革开放 知识溢出 经济收敛 总产出增长率

【摘要】：随着我国改革开放程度的不断加深和社会主义市场经济体制的逐步确立,我国当前的经济运行正向着与国际接轨的方向发展,可以说我国的经济体制改革取得了举世瞩目的巨大成功,但在成功的背后,却隐藏着诸多亟需解决的问题。其中一个最为严重的问题就是在改革开放过程中为加速改革开放的步伐、尽快建立起市场经济体制,党中央采取的各种阶段性的区域经济发展政策进而导致的区域经济发展不平衡。这种区域经济发展的不平衡已经严重阻碍了我国经济的高速发展和综合国力的提升。运用西方经济学中有关“经济收敛”的理论去衡量我国当前区域经济发展的不平衡状况、从“经济收敛”的角度去分析影响我国各区域间经济均衡发展的各种因素,以及如何通过调整这些因素来达到促进区域经济协调发展的目的已成为我国当前宏观经济研究的热点。本文以对区域经济收敛的研究为基础,首先运用传统的经济收敛测度方法(?-收敛检验、绝对?-收敛检验、条件?-收敛检验)对在不考虑到知识溢出影响情况下我国各区域间经济增长的收敛情况进行了检验,检验结果发现我国在1978-2012年这段时期各区域(省)间的经济增长存在弱收敛态势。随后对当前西方经济理论中有关知识溢出的理论进行了系统、详细的阐述并将其应用到我国,对我国各区域间的知识溢出现状进行了分析。接着以总产出增长率的变化为起点,经区域间知识溢出的变化过程过渡到考虑到知识溢出的总产出增长率变化,根据不同前提假设构建了三类考虑到知识溢出的总产出增长率模型,并应用实际数据对我国各区域间知识溢出对总产出增长率的影响情况进行了实证检验。最后利用“方差分解技术”将知识溢出与经济收敛有机地联系在一起,分别从“因素分解分析”和“时间序列分析”两个角度应用1978—2012年的实际经济数据对我国各区域间知识溢出对经济收敛的影响效应进行了实证检验。检验结果发现与影响经济收敛的其它因素相比区域间的知识溢出在决定我国各区域间经济增长情况呈现收敛抑或发散态势的过程中仅起次要的辅助作用,即:我国各区域间存在着明显的知识溢出障碍。实证过程所用分析方法主要包括:?-收敛检验、?-收敛检验、空间计量分析、面板数据模型计量分析、时间序列分析以及因素分解分析。本文各章主要内容如下:第一章是绪论部分。首先介绍了本文的选题背景、选题意义、研究方法以及国内外关于这一领域的研究现状,其次是本文研究的独特之处和可能的创新,最后给出论文的结构安排和研究框架。第二章是对我国区域经济发展现状的分析。主要分析了我国在建国以后实施的各项区域经济发展政策以及当前重点实施的各项区域经济发展政策。第三章是对我国各区域(省)间经济增长收敛情况的测度,并以此作为后续分析的基础。后续对我国各区域间知识溢出情况的分析以及知识溢出对经济收敛影响的分析都是以对我国各区域间经济收敛情况的分析为基础而展开的。在这一部分中本文分别采用?-收敛检验、绝对?-收敛检验、条件?-收敛检验以及考虑到空间影响下的?-收敛检验对我国各区域(省)间经济增长的收敛情况进行了测度,所得结论不尽相同。第四章是对知识溢出理论全面、系统的阐述,并以此作为后续研究的基础。与知识溢出相关的基础理论主要包括单边知识溢出和双边知识溢出两个方向。但无论是单边知识溢出还是双边知识溢出都认为:影响区域知识溢出的全部因素可归结为三个方面:一是知识流入方,二是知识流出方,三是知识流入方与知识流出方的交流。第五章是对我国各区域(省)间知识溢出现状的分析,并以此作为对前一章“知识溢出的理论基础”的实证研究和对后续“我国各区域间知识溢出对经济收敛影响”研究的基础。在这一章中首先是对我国各区域间是否存在知识溢出情况的存在性检验。具体的检验方法包括图检验和莫兰指数(Moran’s I)检验,检验结果一致认为:我国各区域间存在知识溢出。在经过检验确定存在知识溢出的情况下,本章的第二部分是对我国各区域(省)间知识溢出数据的计算,具体计算过程包括应用Verspagen(1991)与Canel(2001)给出的知识溢出模型进行指标构建以及应用SAS 9.0软件编写计算程序并对计算所得知识溢出数据的有效性进行了检验。随后的“描述性统计分析”、“面板数据分析”都是针对这一数据的分析。在本章中还应用面板数据模型计量分析方法分析了我国各区域间知识溢出对知识生产的影响并以此作为对我国各区域间知识溢出现状分析的深入。第六章是对我国各区域间知识溢出对总产出增长率影响的分析,并以此作为本文核心内容“我国各区域间知识溢出对经济收敛影响”分析的过渡。在本章中首先在理论上从单纯的总产出增长率变化过程经区域间知识溢出的变化过程过渡到考虑到知识溢出的总产出增长率变化过程上。随后通过构建三类考虑到知识溢出的总产出增长率模型、应用面板数据模型计量分析方法对我国各区域(省)间知识溢出对经济总产出增长率的影响进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,区域知识溢出在提高我国各区域总产出增长率上所起到的作用很小,这也正揭示了我国各区域(省)间在知识溢出的流动上存在障碍。也是导致我国区域经济发展不平衡、落后地区与发达地区经济水平差距大、落后地区经济增长缓慢的一个主要原因。第七章是本文的最后部分——对我国各区域间知识溢出对经济收敛影响的分析。本章以第六章的分析为基础,可以说是在第六章基础上继续进行的分析,利用第六章所构建的三类考虑到知识溢出的总产出增长率变化模型通过方差分解技术将其过渡到“经济收敛”问题上,同时解决了以区域个体为研究对象的知识溢出与以区域整体为研究对象的经济收敛之间的融合问题。随后从“因素分解分析”和“时间序列分析”两个角度考察了我国各区域间知识溢出对经济收敛的影响效应。分析结果显示,与其它影响因素相比吸收外来知识溢出对我国在1978—2012年期间各区域(省)经济增长敛散情况的影响作用是较小的,它不足以成为决定我国各区域(间)经济增长呈现出收敛抑或发散态势的主要原因,仅起次要的辅助作用。决定我国各区域(省)的经济增长情况在1978—2012年期间呈现出收敛或是发散态势的主要影响因素为:1、区域自主知识研发,2、区域劳动力投入增长率,3、区域资本投入增长率。
[Abstract]:With the gradual establishment of China's reform and opening up degree deepening and the socialist market economic system, China's current economic operation is in line with international standards in the direction of development, it can be said that China's economic system reform has achieved great success in attracting worldwide attention, but behind the success, but hidden many problems to be solved. One of the most serious problems is to speed up the pace of reform and opening up and establish a market economic system as soon as possible in the process of reform and opening up, and the phased regional economic development policies adopted by the Central Committee of the CPC lead to unbalanced regional economic development. The imbalance of this regional economic development has seriously hindered the rapid development of China's economy and the promotion of comprehensive national strength. To analyze the various factors affecting China's regional economic balanced development of the use of "economic convergence" theory in western economics to measure China's current regional economic development imbalance, from "economic convergence" point of view, and how to adjust these factors to achieve the purpose of promoting the coordinated development of regional economy has become a hot topic the current macroeconomic research in china. Based on the study of regional economic convergence, first use the traditional method to measure the economic convergence (? - convergence test, absolute convergence test, -?? - convergence test) was carried out on the test without taking into account the knowledge spillover effect of China's regional economic growth convergence condition, test results I found the country in various regions during this period 1978-2012 years (province) economic growth between the weak convergence trend. Then, the theories of knowledge spillover in western economic theories are systematically elaborated, and applied to China, and the current situation of knowledge spillovers in different regions in China is analyzed. Then the total output growth rate changes as the starting point, the change process of the transition of regional knowledge spillovers to consider the change of the total output of knowledge spillover growth rate, according to the different assumptions of establishing three types of taking into account the total output growth rate model of knowledge spillover, and the practical application of data empirical test on the impact of the regional in our country the knowledge spillover on total output growth rate. Finally, using variance decomposition technology knowledge spillover and economic convergence together, separately from the "factor decomposition analysis and time sequence analysis, two aspects of application of 1978 - 2012 the actual economic data on the effect of knowledge spillover effect on China's regional economic convergence between the empirical test. The test results showed that only play a supporting role, the secondary process compared with other factors affecting the economic convergence of regional knowledge spillovers in determining each China's regional economic growth is convergence and divergence trend that China's regional barriers exist between knowledge spillover obvious. The analysis methods used in the empirical process mainly include: - convergence test, - convergence test, spatial econometric analysis, panel data model econometric analysis, time series analysis and factor decomposition analysis. The main contents of the chapters are as follows: the first chapter is the introduction part. First of all, we introduce the background, significance and research methods of this topic, as well as the current research situation in this field at home and abroad. Secondly, the uniqueness and possible innovation of this research. Finally, we give the structure and research framework of this paper. The second chapter is an analysis of the current situation of regional economic development in China. This paper mainly analyzes the regional economic development policies implemented in China after the founding of the people's Republic of China and the various regional economic development policies which are mainly implemented at present. The third chapter is the measure of economic growth convergence between various regions (provinces) in China, which is the basis of the follow-up analysis. The subsequent analysis of knowledge spillovers among regions in China and the analysis of the impact of knowledge spillovers on economic convergence are based on the analysis of regional economic convergence in China. In this part, we use the convergence test, the absolute convergence test, the conditional convergence test and the convergence test under the influence of space to measure the convergence of regional economic growth in China. The fourth chapter is a comprehensive and systematic exposition of the theory of knowledge spillover, which is the basis of the follow-up study. The basic theory related to knowledge spillover mainly includes two directions: single side knowledge spillover and bilateral knowledge spillover. But either unilateral knowledge spillovers or bilateral knowledge spillovers all think that all factors that influence regional knowledge spillovers can be reduced to three aspects: one is knowledge influx, the two is knowledge outflow, and the three is knowledge inflow and knowledge outflow. The fifth chapter is the analysis of the current situation of knowledge spillovers among different provinces in China, which is the basis for the research on the theoretical basis of knowledge spillover in the previous chapter and the follow-up study of the impact of knowledge spillovers on economic convergence in different regions in China. In this chapter, the first is a test of the existence of knowledge spillovers in each region of our country. The specific testing methods include graph test and Moran index (Moran 's I) test. The results agree that there is knowledge spillover between various regions in China. After the test confirms the presence of knowledge spillover under the situation, the second part of this chapter is on China's regional (provincial) calculation of knowledge spillovers among data, the specific calculation process including the application of Verspagen (1991) and Canel (2001) model of knowledge spillover are indicators to construct and application of SAS 9 software program and the validity of the calculated data of the tested knowledge spillovers. The subsequent "descriptive statistical analysis" and "panel data analysis" are all analysis of this data. In this chapter, the econometric analysis method of panel data model is also applied
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.1
，

本文编号：1347230