基于市场主体的中国房地产金融风险处置研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 16:30

  本文关键词：基于市场主体的中国房地产金融风险处置研究　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 风险处置 房地产金融 市场主体

【摘要】：从传统金融理论来看,市场参与主体通过对收益的理性预期、对风险的最大化回避以及根据影响因素来抉择行为,但是随着经济和市场形势的快速发展,传统金融理论的假设已无法全面解释在风险因素复杂化和多元化情况下的国内房地产金融市场。通过研究发现,国内房地产金融市场除了土地供给不足与刚性需求旺盛之间的供需矛盾、货币超发和利率走低推升的房价收入比问题、房地产市场火热加剧了政府债务对土地财政的依赖、经济的区域差异化而引发的去库存压力问题以外,还体现出在房企、政府、金融机构和投资者等四个主要的市场参与因素在追求超额收益的非理性行为下,对于房地产金融市场的过度狂热和市场风险认识不足的主观能动性问题。由于对房地产金融风险的市场参与者因素缺少的理论探讨,使得目前对于房地产金融风险的处置策略较为零散,不利于形成切实有效的风险处置策略。面对当前日渐复杂的经济金融形势,本论文的研究目标是:通过系统性金融风险、周期性泡沫在金融与实体经济互动的效用,以及运用行为金融学的视角对金融风险和房地产金融进行分析,梳理国内房地产金融市场发展状况,识别当前国内房地产金融风险的主要特征,建立一套从政府、房企、金融机构、投资者等四个房地产金融市场参与主体角度的房地产金融风险识别体系,通过对国内J房企债务危机化解的实证分析,日本、香港、美国等重大房地产金融风险处置的比较分析,建立适合当前国内房地产金融市场发展状态的风险识别和风险处置模型,基于维护社会和金融秩序稳定、市场化原则、依法处置、防止风险扩散、以“时间换空间”同时兼顾利益相关方的处置原则,构建包含市场主体独立处置风险、政府干预下处置风险和匹配风险阶段的综合处置策略,并对未来房地产金融风险提出防控建议,旨在对房企与金融两个行业的稳定向好发展起到积极的推动作用。本研究的主要内容包括导论、我国房地产金融风险分析的理论背景、我国房地产金融市场的现状、我国房地产金融风险、我国房地产金融的风险识别、房地产金融风险的国内处置实例分析、房地产金融风险的国际处置的借鉴与启示、房地产金融风险处置的对策建议、研究结论与建议等部分。第一章提出本研究的背景,研究意义,研究目标和内容。从关注经济转型升级期内房地产行业变局带来的金融风险,追寻世界范围内知名房地产金融风险处置依据,重视房地产金融风险的社会性和扩张性等三个角度出发开展对中国房地产金融风险的处置研究。由此引出本论文的研究目标就是通过梳理国内房地产金融市场发展状况,识别当前国内房地产金融风险的主要特征,建立包含政府、房企、金融机构、投资者等四个房地产金融市场参与主体的房地产金融风险识别体系,以及具有评估价值的风险识别模型。通过对国内j房企债务危机化解,日本、香港、美国等重大房地产金融风险处置的回顾,建立适合当前国内房地产金融市场发展状态,包含市场主体独立处置风险、政府干预下处置风险和匹配风险阶段的综合处置策略,并对未来房地产金融风险提出防控建议。第二章是对国内房地产金融风险处置的研究综述。在传统的金融理论中,系统性金融风险是引发金融不稳定性的主要原因,传统金融理论认为系统性金融风险的主要产生机制是货币发行、信用扩张与利率调整等三个因素相互互动的外部作用的宏观经济学机制,但是较少探索市场参与者效用的内部根本因素。国内外学术界对房地产金融风险的生成、识别、预警和防范等关注较多,但对于房地产金融风险的处置,尤其是综合处置策略研究较少。处置方式上更多的是关注政府通过财政政策、货币政策、行政手段等方式进行风险的化解,以及金融机构通过金融产品创新对风险的转移和分散,对其它参与方的处置策略研究不多,对涉及到房企、金融机构、投资者三个市场主体的参与作用的研究较少。由于金融资源信息不对称,从而产生时间和空间上的错配,进而导致了周期性泡沫的产生。在周期性泡沫过程中,金融资本与实体经济通过挤出效应、替代效应、排斥效应和杠杆效应等四种方式互动,不断催生金融风险。传统金融研究中对于理性人的假设与当下经济现实间的偏差,对于房地产金融市场四因素主体对市场发展趋势的影响作用的忽略,使笔者发现通过引入行为金融学的理论体系来分析房地产金融风险的必要性。从心理因素干预投资导致的行为偏差,噪声交易理论、羊群效应,以及政府对市场的干预等角度来分析房地产金融市场的发展,得出应遵循从市场参与者角度开展风险成因分析,建立一套基于市场参与者主体的行为特质的分析体系,开展国内房地产金融市场的风险因素识别。第三章回顾国内房地产行业发展的八个阶段,进而分析国内房地产市场对经济的带动性、增长贡献、成长性等特点,国内房地产行业正从以增量为主的时代向以存量为主的时代进行变化,优质房地产企业的经营前景持续向好的发展特征。然后,对国内房地产金融发展的环境因素进行分析,认为房地产行业的发展是政策环境、经济环境、社会环境和经营环境共同作用的结果。研究指出,国家宏观调控政策是作用于房地产行业的最主要因素,经济发展周期与房地产市场发展关联密切,房地产市场价格长期受到土地价格的影响且相互作用,房地产价格与货币供应量和国内生产总值gdp正向关系,与物价水平、利率负向相关关系,房地产行业发展还受城镇化进程推动,为下一步探寻房地产金融风险的因素分析和处置策略做好研究支持。第四章分析我国房地产金融风险的主要特征。主要对多方加杠杆带来的金融泡沫所加剧的房地产金融风险,政府债务过度依赖土地财政带来的债务风险,房价收入比以及房地产库存在区域间的分化带来部分地区的去库存压力,由于地产市场信息不对称所导致的资源分配不均匀和错配等风险特征进行分析。研究指出,房企开发资金余额增加、资产负债率逐年走高,而流动比率不断走低的市场表现,反映出近年来房企的融资杠杆逐渐放大,不断侵蚀企业的经济效益。金融机构对房地产行业的过度依赖,居民杠杆快速上升都进一步加大了金融风险失控的可能性。与此同时,政府的土地供给落后于市场需求,土地价格随着房价上涨而不断上涨,也加剧了政府对土地财政的依赖,使房地产市场的过热发展成为地方政府债务风险显现的重要领域。尽管全国的房价收入比在二三线城市持续降低的带动下,呈现走低的态势,但是,三四线中小城市依旧面临巨大的去库存压力。同时,一二线城市不断走高的房价,使得居民的购买力不断下降,房地产市场的需求端日渐萎缩。另外,房地产金融市场内房企、政府、金融机构与投资者等多方的信息不对称造成了资源错配,进一步提高了房地产金融风险发生的概率,金融风险防范与控制面临前所未有的压力。第五章全面开展我国房地产金融的风险识别研究。研究指出房地产金融市场由房企、政府、金融机构及投资者共同参与,相互影响。在一个公开的、与外界密切联系的房地产金融市场机制下,房地产金融风险的主要成因涵盖了各个参与对象,政府、房地产企业、金融机构及投资者。进而开展了对四因素理论的有效性实证分析,通过spss软件,对涵盖政府层面、金融机构层面、房企层面以及个人投资者层面等四个层面的9个风险因素进行综合分析,与国房景气指数进行对比后发现,模型分析结果与国房景气指数吻合度较高,由此印证四因素分析理论的实证价值。通过研究表明,政府、房企、金融机构和投资者等作为四个主要因素,参与房地产金融市场,并成为房地产金融风险的主要来源。房地产金融风险四因素分析是研究房地产金融风险成因的重要出发点,也是拟订房地产金融风险处置策略的重要手段之一。同时,本章还通过四因素理论对国内房地产金融风险进行识别研究,指出国家的宏观政策调控可以有效控制全国性房地产金融风险,但土地财政将地方政府和房地产市场捆绑,而房地产市场表现的区域分化,又影响到地方政府的收入来源,使得区域性房地产金融风险的发生概率在增加,并引用四因素模型对六个不同城市的风险水平进行验证。由于区域性以上规模房企在不同城市间的项目布局失误和滞销,增大了房企的破产风险并有可能成为新时期房地产金融风险的重要爆发点。限购限贷政策下的严格管控,在考验着房企的经营能力,过度融资和利润下滑带来的财务压力,使得房企债务风险极易在境内外传播。金融机构对于房地产金融产品的过度加杠杆,将成为风险传播的加速器。投资者在房地产金融产品上的过度投资,也可能成为风险散布的重要因素。通过研究表明,鉴于中国房地产金融问题的复杂性,化解风险需要建立一套从政府、房企、金融机构和投资者四个角度共同作用的房地产金融风险综合处置体系。第六章国内j房企的金融风险处置实例研究。回顾债务危机的背景和债务情况。从企业的经营风险,连锁反应风险,社会稳定风险,市场恐慌风险,金融稳定风险角度分析风险的危害性。结合风险情况,从协同处置,政府参与,因时施策角度思考处置策略。然后从房企收缩战线,出售欠发达地区储备项目,积极维护政府关系,项目恢复销售以重获现金流,加强与金融机构沟通并延展债务等角度开展自救;金融机构在合理评估企业价值基础上,通过诉前保全,控制损失,成立债委会统一步调,加强与监管机构沟通赢得理解和支持,细化研究资产及项目情况,积极保护中小投资者角度进行风险处置;政府采取积极引导金融机构和全力支持房企,同时投资者理性维权,给予处置的时间和空间等策略,共同化解了j房企的债务危机,实现了共赢。通过对j房企债务危机处置案例的实证分析,提出对债务危机成因的思考,指出企业隐性债务是形成融资泡沫的根源,政府锁盘是刺破泡沫的诱因,金融机构的表外借款是泡沫的放大器,投资者的不理性行为将推动危机蔓延。同时分析j房企债务危机的案例典型性,进一步得出国内房地产金融风险处置上的自觉担当社会责任,处置过程应符合法律要求,形成风险共担机制,防范风险蔓延,“以时间换空间”的经验。第七章开展房地产金融风险处置的中外借鉴与启示分析。通过对日本1991年房地产泡沫、香港1997年楼市崩盘、美国2008年次贷危机等三次全球范围内重要的房地产金融风险的危机背景、危机前市场四因素的行为表现、危机爆发后导致的社会经济问题等进行分析,研究三次国际范围内的房地产金融风险的共性特点,进而归纳出三次金融风险爆发前市场参与各方的表现、风险爆发后的处置措施。通过分析得出日本处置策略中政府强硬干预市场、香港处置策略中对投资者的保护不足、美国处置策略中将风险转移至全球市场等问题,对于房地产金融风险的处置都带来了不利影响,需要在下一阶段的房地产金融风险的处置过程中加以避免。第八章提出房地产金融风险处置策略。结合前述研究,在明确维护社会和金融秩序稳定原则、市场化原则、依法处置原则、防止风险扩散原则、兼顾利益相关方原则的国内房地产金融风险处置的基本原则基础上,提出金融机构审慎控制风险传播、房企强化自身经营能力、投资者主动规避风险的市场主体独立处置的风险策略,提出政府主导下的风险处置策略,然后进一步探讨在时空纵向发展过程中匹配风险不同阶段的综合处置策略,构建纵横交错的多元化房地产金融风险处置方案。同时同时对未来房地产金融风险防控的长效机制提出建议,包括推动政府指导下的房地产金融市场改革,建立宏观数据与区域数据相结合的监测体系,巩固政府监管体系,继续开展中央政府和地方政府的调控管理,强化监管机构的监督管理,完善金融机构的自律管理,鼓励建立房企稳健发展与投资者风险识别相结合的市场体系,从多方面加强金融风险防控。第九章对上述研究进行总结,指出在具有中国特色的房地产金融环境下,房地产金融风险在不断累积,如果风险爆发将引致更为严重的社会问题,因此对于风险的理论探讨和实践总结值得重视。政府、房企、金融机构和投资者既是房地产金融风险的来源,也是处置风险的参与要素。得出中国房地产金融风险处置需遵循的五个原则,维护社会和金融秩序稳定原则,市场化原则,依法处置原则,防止风险扩散原则,兼顾利益相关方原则等五个基本原则。房地产金融风险的处置需要根据风险在不同阶段的特点,采用不同的化解方法,建立从政府、房企、金融机构和投资者四个角度共同作用,包含市场主体独立处置,政府主导下的房地产金融风险处置,匹配风险阶段的综合化处置等三种不同层次的房地产金融风险综合处置体系。在研究过程中存在的量化分析不足,处置策略细化程度不够等问题,也将是笔者的下一步研究方向。
[Abstract]:From the traditional financial theory, market participants through rational expectation of profit maximization, to evade the risk, according to the influence factors of choice behavior, but with the rapid development of economy and the market situation, the traditional financial theory cannot fully explain the assumptions have been at risk factors of complicated and diversified situation of the domestic real estate finance the market. Through the study found that the domestic real estate financial market in addition to the contradiction between supply and demand of land supply shortage and rigid demand between the super currency and low interest rates push up the price to income ratio, the real estate market fiery government debt exacerbated the financial dependence on land, regional differences in economic and lead to pressure on the stock the problem, also reflected in housing prices, government, financial institutions and investors such as the four main market participation factors in the non rational behavior of the pursuit of excess returns Next, for the real estate financial market and market risk awareness of the problem over enthusiastic initiative. Because of the lack of lack of financial risks of the real estate market participants factors theory, makes the real estate financial risk disposal strategies are scattered, risk disposal strategy is disadvantageous to form effective in the face of the increasingly complex. The economic and financial situation, the research object of this paper is: through the systemic financial risk, utility of periodic bubbles in financial and real economic interaction, and the use of behavioral finance from the perspective of financial risks and real estate financial analysis, the development situation of combing the domestic real estate financial market, the main features of the current domestic real estate financial risk identification the establishment of a set from the government, enterprises, financial institutions, investors and other four real estate financial market participants in the perspective of real estate finance Risk identification system, through empirical research to resolve the debt crisis of the domestic housing prices J, Japan, Hongkong, the United States and other major comparative analysis of real estate financial risk management, establish the risk identification and risk disposal model suitable for the current development status of the domestic real estate financial market, and maintain social stability of the financial system based on market principles, dispose of according to law and prevent the spread of risk, to "time for space" while taking into account the principles of dealing with stakeholders, including construction market main body independent risk disposal, disposal and disposal strategies, risk risk stage of government intervention, and to put forward suggestions for future prevention and control of the real estate finance risk to housing prices and financial sectors in the two stable to play an active role in promoting development. The main content of this study includes introduction, theoretical background analysis of financial risk of real estate in China, China's real estate The status quo of the financial market, the financial risk of real estate in China, China's real estate financial risk identification, analysis of the domestic real estate financial risk disposal examples, reference and Enlightenment of the international management of real estate finance risk and Countermeasures of real estate financial risk disposal, conclusions and suggestions are put forward in this part. The first chapter the research background, research significance, research objectives and content. From the change of the real estate industry upgrade period financial risk caused by the transformation of the economy, in pursuit of world renowned real estate financial risk disposal based on the importance of real estate financial risk society and expansion of the three aspects to carry out the disposal of real estate research on Chinese financial risk. This raises the research goal is through the development of domestic real estate financial market, the current domestic real estate financial risk identification of the main features, construction Set includes the government, enterprises, financial institutions, investors and other four real estate financial market participants in real estate financial risk identification and risk identification system, is to assess the value of the model. By solving the debt crisis, the domestic J enterprises in Japan, Hongkong, the United States and other major review of real estate financial risk management, establish suitable for the current development the state of the domestic real estate financial market, including the market main body independent disposal of risk, comprehensive treatment strategies under the government intervention, risk and risk disposal stage, and puts forward suggestions for future prevention and control of financial risks of real estate. The second chapter is the summary of the research on the domestic real estate financial risk disposal. In the traditional financial theory, systemic financial risk is the main cause of financial instability, the traditional financial theory that the main mechanism of systemic financial risk is the currency, credit expansion and The role of the interest rate adjustment mechanism of external macro economics three factors interact, but internal fundamental factors to explore market participants less utility. The academic circles at home and abroad on the real estate financial risk formation, identification, early warning and prevention of more concern, but for the real estate financial risk disposal, especially comprehensive disposal strategy less. The disposal of the way is more concerned about the government through fiscal policy, monetary policy, to resolve administrative means such as the risk, and financial institutions through financial product innovation for risk transfer and dispersion, the other parties involved in strategy research is not much, to the housing, to the financial institutions involved in research, in three the main body of the market investors less. Because of asymmetric information of financial resources, resulting in time and space mismatch, resulting in periodic bubbles generated in. Periodic bubbles in the process of financial capital and the real economy through crowding out effect, substitution effect, mutual exclusion effect and leverage effect in four ways, and constantly create financial risks. The deviation for rational person hypothesis and the economic reality of the traditional financial research, ignoring the real estate financial market for the main effects of the four factors on the development of the market the role of the trend, the author found that the necessity of theoretical system through the introduction of behavioral finance to analyze the financial risks of real estate. From a psychological intervention bias investment led, herding, and noise trading theory, the development of government intervention in the market in terms of the analysis of the real estate financial market, it should follow from market participants to carry out analysis of the risk factors, establish a system based on the analysis of market participants behavior characteristics, to carry out domestic real estate financial market Risk factors identification field. The third chapter reviews the eight stages of the development of the domestic real estate industry, and then analyzes the drive, the domestic real estate market on economic growth contribution, characteristics of growth, the domestic real estate industry is mainly from the incremental time to take stock of the main age changes, characteristics of the development of quality housing the real estate business outlook continues to improve. Then, for environmental factors on the development of the domestic real estate finance analysis, that the development of the real estate industry policy environment, economic environment, social environment and business environment interaction results. The study pointed out that the national macro-control policy is the main factor in the real estate industry. The development of related development cycle and the real estate market economy closely, the real estate market prices are influenced by long-term land prices and the interaction between real estate prices and money supply and domestic GDP positive relationship between GDP and price level, interest rate, negative correlation between the development of the real estate industry is also affected by the process of urbanization to promote, do research support for the next step to explore the factors of the real estate financial risk and disposal strategy. The main features of the fourth chapter is the analysis of China's real estate financial risk. The financial risk of real estate mainly to the multi plus leverage to bring financial bubbles rising government debt, excessive dependence on land revenue caused by the debt risk, price earnings ratio and real estate inventory differentiation between regions in some areas to bring pressure on the stock, because the resource allocation of information asymmetry caused by the real estate market is not uniform and the mismatch risk characteristics analysis. The study pointed out that the development of housing prices increase the balance of the funds, asset liability ratio increased year by year, the market performance and liquidity ratio continued to decline, reflecting the financing of housing prices in recent years. Bar gradually enlarged, eroding the economic efficiency of enterprises. Financial institutions over reliance on the real estate industry, the residents of the leverage rapid rise to further increase the possibility of financial risk control. At the same time, the government's land supply lags behind the market demand, rising land prices as prices rise, also increased the government reliance on land finance so, the overheated real estate market development has become an important field of local government debt risk. Although the price earnings ratio in the two or three line of the city continue to reduce the lead, present the trend, but the decline, small and medium-sized city three or four line still faces huge pressure on the stock. At the same time, a second tier city continued high prices so, the purchasing power of residents continued to decline, the real estate market demand is shrinking. In addition, the financial market of real estate housing prices, government, financial institutions and investment The multi information asymmetry caused a mismatch of resources, to further improve the probability of real estate financial risk, financial risk prevention and control faced with hitherto unknown pressure. The fifth chapter comprehensively carry out research on the risk identification of real estate finance in China. The research points out that the real estate financial market by the housing prices, government, financial institutions and investors participate in and influence each other. In an open and close contact with the external market mechanism of real estate finance, the main causes of financial risks of real estate covering all subjects, government, real estate enterprises, financial institutions and investors. Then we carried out an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of the four factor theory, by SPSS software. To cover the government level, the level of financial institutions, the 9 risk factors of four levels of housing prices level of individual investors and the level of comprehensive analysis, with the national housing climate index After comparison, the model analysis results and the state of the housing boom index higher degree of agreement, which confirms the four factors empirical analysis of value theory. The research shows that the government, enterprises, financial institutions and investors such as the four main factors in the financial market of real estate, and become the main source for the financial risks of real estate real estate. The financial risk analysis of four factors is an important starting point for research on real estate financial risk causes, and is also an important means for the real estate financial risk disposal strategy. At the same time, this chapter also through four factor theory on domestic real estate financial risk identification research, pointed out that the national policy control can effectively control the national real estate finance the risk, but the local government land finance and real estate market bound, and the performance of the real estate market of the regional differentiation, but also affect the local government revenue sources, making the region The probability of occurrence of domain of real estate financial risk has increased, and cited the risk level of the four factor model in six different city to verify. Because of the regional scale housing prices in the city between the different project layout errors and slow-moving, increases the risk of bankruptcy of the outbreak of housing prices and is likely to become the new era of real estate finance risk. The purchase limit credit policy under strict control, in a test of housing prices in the business capacity, excessive financing and profit decline caused by financial pressures, making housing prices vulnerable to debt risk in China spread. Financial institutions for real estate financial products without excessive leverage, the risk will become the spread of investors over investment accelerator. In the real estate financial products, may also become an important factor in the risk spread. The research shows that the complexity of the Chinese real estate financial problems, resolve risks need to establish A joint action from the government, enterprises, financial institutions and investors four aspects of the real estate financial risk disposal system. Research on financial risk disposal examples in Chapter sixth. The background and the domestic housing prices J debt review debt crisis. From the management risk of the enterprise, the chain reaction of risk, the risk of social stability, the market panic risk analysis of the risk of harm, risk of financial stability. With the risk, from the collaborative disposal, government participation, when applied to policy perspective strategy. Then the contraction front from the sale of housing prices, underdeveloped areas reserve projects, actively safeguard government relations, project sales to recover

【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F832
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本文编号：1360568